The Rotation

[JaxRed]

Who’s worse - Negative Nancy or Debbie Downer?

Nancy. She comes by it naturally whereas Debby has to be pharmaceutically induced.

[mth123]

I think Susie Sunshine is the worst myself, because she often confuses Rhonda Reality with Negative Nancy and Debbie Downer. Nothing is more annoying than being told how great things are when everything is falling apart.

[Ron Madden]

A late arrival because of travel issues out of the Dominican Republic and pandemic quarantine requirements, pitcher Luis Castillo passed his physical and was officially in camp Thursday.

Castillo, 28, was 4-6 with a 3.21 ERA over 12 starts last season. But he really didn’t have everything put together until September, when he was 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA in five starts. He allowed 22 hits and nine walks while striking out 37 over his final 32 2/3 innings. In his first four starts of the final month, he was 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA.

David Bell has not determined who will start on Opening Day, April 1, vs. the Cardinals. It’s likely between Castillo and Sonny Gray, who started the 2019 and '20 season openers, respectively. St. Louis named Jack Flaherty as its starter on Wednesday.

“But we're going to be a little delayed,” Bell said. “Luis was a couple of days late. He's certainly going to be a consideration for that spot. Sonny's going to be a consideration for that spot. Like I said last year, we understand and honor the importance of Opening Day, especially in Cincinnati. Every single game is so important, in the big picture it may not be as important as getting things lined up properly for our pitchers' health and where they are in their readiness.”

reds.com

[Red Raindog]

I read in Baseball Prospectus that Hoffman has faced 500 right handed hitters in the bigs.
They have a 1.000 OPS against him and he’s a right handed pitcher!
They claim no one has ever done that.



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[Bourgeois Zee]

I think Susie Sunshine is the worst myself, because she often confuses Rhonda Reality with Negative Nancy and Debbie Downer. Nothing is more annoying than being told how great things are when everything is falling apart.

The whole reality v. pessimism trope is so ridiculously wrong-headed. Reality does not equal pessimism, nor has it ever.

Your pessimistic take has been proven wrong at least as much as it's been right over the years we've been on this board. Your takes on Derek Johnson, for example, and Sonny Gray have not aged well. Heck, we're in the middle of an entire pessimistic take on Red defense that you can't defend with numbers but continue to spew as "fact."

This is not to say optimists have been proven right in everything. They're wrong just as often. I'm still waiting on Brandon Finnegan to actually show he can pitch after surgeries to both arms, for example.

But reality does NOT equal pessimism.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I read in Baseball Prospectus that Hoffman has faced 500 right handed hitters in the bigs.
They have a 1.000 OPS against him and he’s a right handed pitcher!
They claim no one has ever done that.

With a career 6.40 ERA, I didn't have high expectations but that is.... not good

[Bourgeois Zee]

With a career 6.40 ERA, I didn't have high expectations but that is.... not good

I'm hoping he turns into a Sims clone in the pen.

Starter Sims gave up more hits than innings pitched and compounded those issues with a bunch of walks. Wild in the zone and outside the zone is a sure recipe for struggles. That's the same recipe Hoffman has cooked up, sadly. Starter Hoffman has almost the same numbers against (.280/ .354/ .526 v. .281/ .353/ .508) as Sims. (The extra SLG, I'd argue, is probably Coors-induced, at least in part.) Their fastball/ change numbers are similar, but 2020 bullpen Sims had a slider Hoffman hasn't shown. (That may change in Spring Training-- or might have already changed as Hoffman worked with Boddy and Driveline over the winter.) There are enough similarities there to give me a bit of hope, particularly because Hoffman would almost assuredly begin the season as a long man in low-pressure environs.

I'm also guessing Hoffman is a test case for formerly highly-regarded prospects who've struggled in other franchises. If he does well, the Reds will have added him to their collection of cast-offs and never-wases in the rotation or the pen. That in itself could well prove invaluable in collecting depth arms. (Tampa and LA are the kings of this type of "recruitment" right now. Pittsburgh put together pitching staffs with the same mindset for 15 years before that.) it's a modern-day equivalent of "Gully can fix 'em," but with actual metrics and science behind it. (And an adequate staff set up to take a gamble or two at the back end.)

[JFLegal]

Has Nancy replaced Nelly? we couldn't even sign Nelly??? Yeesh.

nelly is a cardinals fan.

oh, we're not talking about the rapper?

[UPRedsFan]

The whole reality v. pessimism trope is so ridiculously wrong-headed. Reality does not equal pessimism, nor has it ever.

Your pessimistic take has been proven wrong at least as much as it's been right over the years we've been on this board. Your takes on Derek Johnson, for example, and Sonny Gray have not aged well. Heck, we're in the middle of an entire pessimistic take on Red defense that you can't defend with numbers but continue to spew as "fact."

This is not to say optimists have been proven right in everything. They're wrong just as often. I'm still waiting on Brandon Finnegan to actually show he can pitch after surgeries to both arms, for example.

But reality does NOT equal pessimism.

Try optimism. It's more fun.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I'm hoping he turns into a Sims clone in the pen.

Starter Sims gave up more hits than innings pitched and compounded those issues with a bunch of walks. Wild in the zone and outside the zone is a sure recipe for struggles. That's the same recipe Hoffman has cooked up, sadly. Starter Hoffman has almost the same numbers against (.280/ .354/ .526 v. .281/ .353/ .508) as Sims. (The extra SLG, I'd argue, is probably Coors-induced, at least in part.) Their fastball/ change numbers are similar, but 2020 bullpen Sims had a slider Hoffman hasn't shown. (That may change in Spring Training-- or might have already changed as Hoffman worked with Boddy and Driveline over the winter.) There are enough similarities there to give me a bit of hope, particularly because Hoffman would almost assuredly begin the season as a long man in low-pressure environs.

I'm also guessing Hoffman is a test case for formerly highly-regarded prospects who've struggled in other franchises. If he does well, the Reds will have added him to their collection of cast-offs and never-wases in the rotation or the pen. That in itself could well prove invaluable in collecting depth arms. (Tampa and LA are the kings of this type of "recruitment" right now. Pittsburgh put together pitching staffs with the same mindset for 15 years before that.) it's a modern-day equivalent of "Gully can fix 'em," but with actual metrics and science behind it. (And an adequate staff set up to take a gamble or two at the back end.)

Oh, I totally agree. I didn't mean it to seem like I was critical of the pick up. It is just jarring to see numbers that show a right handed hitter becomes Mike Trout by simply stepping into the box against Hoffman.

Besides, the hall of fame would be a lonely place for relievers if failed starters weren't allowed in

[M2]

Try optimism. It's more fun.

My take has always been don't try to be either optimistic or pessimistic when it comes to the Reds. Our personal moods have no bearing on their quality, or lack thereof. I've seen people force themselves to go Pollyanna on some absolutely wretched Reds teams, and that can't be fun. Likewise, I've seen people hunting for dark clouds when they're playing well. We had one poster last season still insisting in a game thread the Reds were going to fall apart and miss the playoffs AFTER they'd just mathematically clinched a spot (and while they were on their way to a fairly emphatic win). That's true dedication to being miserable.

As for this year's team, they've arguably got the best team on paper in a division full of misfits. They don't profile as world beaters, but their baseline is they can be a solid team. If a few things go right, they could be pretty good. And it would take a lot of things going wrong from them to be notably bad. More than any other season in recent memory, this year's team has a broad range of ways its season could go. I'm genuinely interested to see how this spring training unfolds. Unlike most springs, I think we stand to learn something about what kind of club they're going to be.

[Ron Madden]

C. Trent Rosecrans
@ctrent
#Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson — "I'd rather have a swing and miss than a ground ball"

[Boston Red]

Why does Derek Johnson hate double plays?

[Ron Madden]

Bobby Nightengale
@nightengalejr
#Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson: "Looking at the athletes, looking at the arm talent, what the possibilities are, it's really, really exciting this year. Maybe more than any other year."

[Griffey012]

Oh, I totally agree. I didn't mean it to seem like I was critical of the pick up. It is just jarring to see numbers that show a right handed hitter becomes Mike Trout by simply stepping into the box against Hoffman.

Besides, the hall of fame would be a lonely place for relievers if failed starters weren't allowed in

IIRC Hoffman has a hammer of a curveball, which I know Coors has a negative impact on. His numbers against righties are very bizarre, home and away he is terrible against them. I am optimistic the Reds can at least turn him into a good relief arm.