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Thread: The Rotation

  1. #181
    Pitcairn Islander Red Buckeye's Avatar
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    Re: The Rotation

    The Reds have two legit Ace's or near Ace's in Sonny and Luis, Mahle is at best a 5th, and the rest probably shouldn't be starting.
    There are no hunting accidents...It's called kharma.

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  4. #182
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    Re: The Rotation

    When DJ spoke of preferring missed bats to ground balls, he may have been talking about Tyler Mahle. Tyler is one of my favorite Reds, rooting for him big time.

    But he may not get away with a 50% fly ball rate as he did last season. Even with the additional Ks.

    There’s still work to be done, needs to throw a few more grounders while maintaining the Ks. He seems to improve every year, I expect he’ll do the same this season.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-01-2021 at 07:39 PM.

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  6. #183
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    Re: The Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    When DJ spoke of preferring missed bats to ground balls, he may have been talking about Tyler Mahle. Tyler is one of my favorite Reds, rooting for him big time.

    But he may not get away with a 50% fly ball rate as he did last season. Even with the additional Ks.

    There’s still work to be done, needs to throw a few more grounders while maintaining the Ks. He seems to improve every year, I expect he’ll do the same this season.
    If the ball truly is deader this season, then he should be able to get away with a higher fly ball rate and fewer K’s.
    That’s why we’re playing, bro

  7. #184
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    Re: The Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If the ball truly is deader this season, then he should be able to get away with a higher fly ball rate and fewer K’s.
    Mahle’s FB rate was 50% last year, astronomical. You’re suggesting a higher FB rate?

    His XFIP was 4.59 reflecting his ability (luck?) in avoiding homers on many of those fly balls.

    I wouldn’t push my luck, deader ball or no, especially at GABP. Throw in a few grounders, Tyler, round things out in your improving arsenal.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-01-2021 at 08:53 PM.

  8. #185
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    Re: The Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Buckeye View Post
    Mahle is at best a 5th.
    Absurd.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  10. #186
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    Re: The Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Mahle’s FB rate was 50% last year, astronomical. You’re suggesting a higher FB rate?

    His XFIP was 4.59 reflecting his ability (luck?) in avoiding homers on many of those fly balls.

    I wouldn’t push my luck, deader ball or no, especially at GABP. Throw in a few grounders, Tyler, round things out in your improving arsenal.
    Apologies, I worded that poorly. I meant a higher FB rate than league average.

    I think the Reds new hitting approach will be seen throughout the league. Watching a few games so far this spring, the Red Sox announcers were talking about their team taking a similar approach, more balls in play, more line drives. The Rays did it last year and played in the World Series.

    I think we will be seeing fewer FB and more situational hitting this season.
    Last edited by 757690; 03-02-2021 at 02:10 AM.
    That’s why we’re playing, bro

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  12. #187
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    Re: The Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If the ball truly is deader this season, then he should be able to get away with a higher fly ball rate and fewer K’s.
    Doesn't it make a huge difference if his flyballs are hit high or are linedrives? If his linedrive rate stays low, then he should be able to get away with it. There's nothing wrong with a high flyball rate if the ball isn't hit solidly. They are just long outs.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  13. #188
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    Re: The Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Doesn't it make a huge difference if his flyballs are hit high or are linedrives? If his linedrive rate stays low, then he should be able to get away with it. There's nothing wrong with a high flyball rate if the ball isn't hit solidly. They are just long outs.
    Reds play in a home run stadium so you don’t want to see an excessive fly ball rate. The risk of homers is too great, and pitcher can’t always control exactly where the ball is hit. Over the years, many of the best Reds pitchers had a solid combination of K rate and GB rate. Currently, Gray and Castillo have that.

    Mahle’s ground ball rate was under 30% last season, extremely low, although it’s been better in the past and 2020 was a small sample.

    Mahle’s “sweet spot” is up in the zone, he’s going to allow fly balls, it’s a matter of degree. A 40% GB rate, give or take, isn’t high, but in his case would probably suffice if he and the coaches can manage it.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-02-2021 at 07:45 AM. Reason: Gr

  14. #189
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    Re: The Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Reds play in a home run stadium so you don’t want to see an excessive fly ball rate. The risk of homers is too great, and pitcher can’t always control exactly where the ball is hit. Over the years, many of the best Reds pitchers had a solid combination of K rate and GB rate. Currently, Gray and Castillo have that.

    Mahle’s ground ball rate was under 30% last season, extremely low, although it’s been better in the past and 2020 was a small sample.

    Mahle’s “sweet spot” is up in the zone, he’s going to allow fly balls, it’s a matter of degree. A 40% GB rate, give or take, isn’t high, but in his case would probably suffice if he and the coaches can manage it.
    Reds Pitching Coach Derek Johnson does not share your same affection for the ground ball

    https://www.mlb.com/news/derek-johns...-reds-pitchers

  15. #190
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: The Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Reds play in a home run stadium so you don’t want to see an excessive fly ball rate.
    If the ball is dead (and that's what the league is trying to do), Mahle's fly ball percentage will be fine.

  16. #191
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    Re: The Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Reds Pitching Coach Derek Johnson does not share your same affection for the ground ball

    https://www.mlb.com/news/derek-johns...-reds-pitchers
    With the Reds infield, I wouldn't either. Unless Shogo plays LF with Senzel in CF, the OF isn't any better. I'm hoping for a lot of K's, but compared to last year, there are a couple of issues. Bauer and Iglesias are gone and both had exceptional K Rates. The replacements probably won't K as many. The 162 game season is going to require some guys pacing themselves and I can't see these guys holding up if they go for the K on every pitch. If the innings end up being limited because of it, that means the soft underbelly of the bullpen comes into play more often and that's a worst case scenario.

    Given how this team is constructed and the park they play in I agree K's are the way to go, but I have a hard time believing we'll see an increased percentage compared to last year.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  17. #192
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    Re: The Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Reds Pitching Coach Derek Johnson does not share your same affection for the ground ball

    https://www.mlb.com/news/derek-johns...-reds-pitchers
    Johnson says he prefers swing and miss. But unfortunately no pitcher averages 27 Ks per nine innings. The majority of batters hit the ball fair rather than strike out, even in today’s high strikeout era.

    I doubt the ball will be sufficiently dead to eliminate GABP’s propensity toward homers. Unless the Reds move to San Diego or another cavernous stadium, a solid GB rate will be an advantage.

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  19. #193
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    Re: The Rotation

    Reds should really be thinking about adding another arm to the mix. Odorizzi or Porcello for the rotation. Shane Greene is still looking for work. They're going to need at least another reliable guy who can give them 50 innings in the bullpen or it's going to be a long season.

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  21. #194
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    Re: The Rotation

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Johnson says he prefers swing and miss. But unfortunately no pitcher averages 27 Ks per nine innings. The majority of batters hit the ball fair rather than strike out, even in today’s high strikeout era.

    I doubt the ball will be sufficiently dead to eliminate GABP’s propensity toward homers. Unless the Reds move to San Diego or another cavernous stadium, a solid GB rate will be an advantage.
    I'm just saying Derek Johnson doesn't agree. “At the point I came on board, I said it right away, ‘I don’t care about the ballpark. Homers are going to happen,'” When he very easily could have said "we want strikeouts, but with our ballpark, if they don't strike them out we need ground balls"

  22. #195
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    Re: The Rotation

    The DJ quote you posted earlier expressed his preference for bat missing to ground ball throwing. I fully agree with that.

    And I know DJ wants pitchers to emphasize their strengths. I agree with that, even if it means more fly balls.

    But - 29% GB rate and 50% fly balls for a GABP pitcher are extreme numbers. Unless you have the stuff and mastery of a Bauer or a Chapman it isn’t going to work over the longer term and I doubt Mahle wants those percentages in 2021.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-02-2021 at 01:06 PM.


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