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Thread: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

  1. #316
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    To address one of the shotgun scattered questions above - the average age of death vs life expectancy, the average covid victim had 16 years of life left:

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world...udy-finds.html

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...s%2016%20years.

    That’s a peer reviewed study. I think any reasonable public health authority has the right to advocate for that.
    The average age of death from COVID is in the upper 70's or maybe 80. So the average age of those deaths was going to be 90+?

    75% of deaths are from the 70+ crowd. Makes no sense.


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  3. #317
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Understand that there are already many states w/o a mask mandate, Florida being one of them, and their numbers are about in the middle in terms of cases and deaths. There are about 20 states that do not have a mask mandate. Do the math and you can see that we're getting very close to the point where a majority of the states will not have a mandate. If you drive down I-75, once you hit Jellico Mountain in northern Tennessee, you can keep driving to Miami and all the way to Key West and you'll not be in a state with a mask mandate
    I actually hadn't realized those southern states didn't have a mask mandate. Not that I think thats a good reason to drop it right now. The most concerning thing for me is it's a signal to people that "this thing is over, go back to completely normal." When the better approach seems to be a message of "we're so close, a few more weeks of masking, limiting big crowds, and getting everyone vaccinated, and we're back."
    "In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
    -Walt Whitman

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  5. #318
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Just to restate what has been made clear numerous times on this board:

    There was not a choice between opening the economy vs. saving lives. If we didn’t have the limited lockdown that we had, the economy would have been destroyed by all the deaths and hospitalizations that would have occurred, so we would have had far greater death and illness, and a cratered economy far worse than what we experienced.

    The lockdown both saved lives and the economy.
    The only reason we locked down at first was because of the unknown. Of course lockdowns "saves lives." If I never leave my basement, my chances of dying go exponentially down. But if there was still any lockdown after say . . . .June, then that was just pure lunacy.

  6. #319
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Quote Originally Posted by Todd Gack View Post
    The average age of death from COVID is in the upper 70's or maybe 80. So the average age of those deaths was going to be 90+?

    75% of deaths are from the 70+ crowd. Makes no sense.
    Two schools of thought from me on this.

    First, once you reach the age of 75, your life expectancy does become something in the high 80’s or 90’s I believe. This does not allow for individual situations though, it’s for the general population. But the numbers given that you are objecting to do make sense to me.

    Second, (and I have no idea which is correct/should be used) but is this the mean, or the median number? Those numbers describe two different things and are often quite different within a population of numbers. Think of economy stats like “the mean household income is 120k” but the “median is 50k.” At which point the median describes the vast majority of people and the mean is drug upwards by the trillionaires. What should be used in this case?
    Last edited by kaldaniels; 03-03-2021 at 09:50 AM.

  7. #320
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Freak View Post
    I actually hadn't realized those southern states didn't have a mask mandate. Not that I think thats a good reason to drop it right now. The most concerning thing for me is it's a signal to people that "this thing is over, go back to completely normal." When the better approach seems to be a message of "we're so close, a few more weeks of masking, limiting big crowds, and getting everyone vaccinated, and we're back."
    I agree it is too early (although Iowa is an early litmus test of a state who dropped theirs 3+ weeks ago and has yet to have an increase in cases) but it demonstrates the need for specific benchmarks for lifting restrictions. June 1 has always been the date in my mind to lift all mask mandates and that was strengthened by President Biden announcing we are on pace for all adults who want a vaccine to have that opportunity by the end of May. July 1 could make sense as it would allow 28 days for immunity to kick in for everyone. Or we could go with a numbers goal - say once a state drops under 1% test positivity, it would be recommended to drop its mask mandate. But the ambiguity only breeds distrust and gives latent permission for people to do their own thing. In Ohio we have DeWine saying we'll have to be masked for county fairs, despite 99% of activities at a fair being outside. I'm sorry, but that's just as anti-science as those saying masks don't work at all. We've got vaccines rolling out at an increasing rate, which is great. But there needs to be specific messaging and benchmarks rather than just the blanket "wear a mask!" we are getting now.

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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Freak View Post
    I actually hadn't realized those southern states didn't have a mask mandate. Not that I think thats a good reason to drop it right now. The most concerning thing for me is it's a signal to people that "this thing is over, go back to completely normal." When the better approach seems to be a message of "we're so close, a few more weeks of masking, limiting big crowds, and getting everyone vaccinated, and we're back."
    I hate gov't restrictions but I would not have had the guts to do what Gov Abbott did. It was bold and I hope it works out. Nobody knows for sure how this is going to go. I do think a lot of the mask wearing stuff is for show only. Look no further than the Reds game last night in Arizona. Few fans were wearing their masks properly if at all...and if you're sitting far away from the next person, what's the point anyway? I think masks probably help in situations like flying in a plane but I think their effect is largely overstated

  10. #322
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    I agree it is too early (although Iowa is an early litmus test of a state who dropped theirs 3+ weeks ago and has yet to have an increase in cases) but it demonstrates the need for specific benchmarks for lifting restrictions. June 1 has always been the date in my mind to lift all mask mandates and that was strengthened by President Biden announcing we are on pace for all adults who want a vaccine to have that opportunity by the end of May. July 1 could make sense as it would allow 28 days for immunity to kick in for everyone. Or we could go with a numbers goal - say once a state drops under 1% test positivity, it would be recommended to drop its mask mandate. But the ambiguity only breeds distrust and gives latent permission for people to do their own thing. In Ohio we have DeWine saying we'll have to be masked for county fairs, despite 99% of activities at a fair being outside. I'm sorry, but that's just as anti-science as those saying masks don't work at all. We've got vaccines rolling out at an increasing rate, which is great. But there needs to be specific messaging and benchmarks rather than just the blanket "wear a mask!" we are getting now.
    I've never liked the test positivity stat. If you set a goal of 1%, fine. Start a campaign where everyone jams the testing centers to get tested even if you're feeling great. Poof, your rate drops dramatically as a stat but what have you really accomplished?

    We've lost our way here in terms of gov't mandates. It started as a flatten the curve thing and keep our health system from being overwhelmed. Now it's morphed into wear masks etc until the risk is miniscule (Fauci's words, not mine). I disagree with that. I want all gov't regulations lifted sooner rather than later and if you are one of the ones who is still vulnerable then you should continue to lay low and wear a mask. But allow the rest of the country to get back to normal

  11. #323
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    That is an interesting question. Who are all these people that are testing negative? Why are they getting tested in the first place? I've had one test, and it was negative, but my son had tested positive. Are there a lot of asymptomatic people who aren't close contacts of someone who tested positive going and getting tested? There must be given all the negative tests, but who are they? Are there people that are routinely tested for work?

  12. #324
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Check out this disclaimer:

    Attachment 17008

    That's pretty direct and to the point

  13. #325
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    In Ohio we have DeWine saying we'll have to be masked for county fairs, despite 99% of activities at a fair being outside. I'm sorry, but that's just as anti-science as those saying masks don't work at all. We've got vaccines rolling out at an increasing rate, which is great. But there needs to be specific messaging and benchmarks rather than just the blanket "wear a mask!" we are getting now.
    It's just common sense. Asking everyone to be constantly aware of the shifting environmental and personal distancing factors around them in order to adjust their masks accordingly is futile. No one's going to do that with any measure of success. We're still experiencing a generalized outbreak. We don't even know whether vaccinated people can transmit the disease. Until we've got the bulk of the population vaccinated, wear a mask around other people in public settings.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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    SteelSD (03-03-2021)

  15. #326
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    https://www.dictionary.com/browse/mask?s=t

    ^ Nowhere on this page does it say masks help protect you from getting COVID. #caseclosed

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    dabvu2498 (03-03-2021),M2 (03-03-2021),MWM (03-03-2021),SteelSD (03-03-2021),Wonderful Monds (03-03-2021)

  17. #327
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I hate gov't restrictions but I would not have had the guts to do what Gov Abbott did. It was bold and I hope it works out. Nobody knows for sure how this is going to go. I do think a lot of the mask wearing stuff is for show only. Look no further than the Reds game last night in Arizona. Few fans were wearing their masks properly if at all...and if you're sitting far away from the next person, what's the point anyway? I think masks probably help in situations like flying in a plane but I think their effect is largely overstated
    You may think the masks are for show, but the science doesn't. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...sars-cov2.html

    Outside with no mask > inside with no mask, but I'm not comfortable right now at indoor places where people aren't wearing masks. Businesses are still going to struggle if people don't feel comfortable in their stores.
    "In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
    -Walt Whitman

  18. #328
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    https://twitter.com/Breaking911/stat...115833351?s=20
    BREAKING: CDC to announce that Americans with COVID-19 vaccine can gather indoors without masks -Fox News

  19. #329
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Freak View Post
    You may think the masks are for show, but the science doesn't. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...sars-cov2.html

    Outside with no mask > inside with no mask, but I'm not comfortable right now at indoor places where people aren't wearing masks. Businesses are still going to struggle if people don't feel comfortable in their stores.
    I've lost a lot of confidence in the CDC and apparently Europe doesn't believe it either:

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/europ...ntl/index.html

    Early research from Israel is promising that vaccinated people are not spreading the virus in loads enough to make people sick

    No mask works if it's not worn properly and I see all sorts of improperly worn masks out there. Furthermore I don't see spikes in states like Tennessee, Ga and FL even though they don't mandate masks

  20. #330
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    Re: Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    https://twitter.com/Breaking911/stat...115833351?s=20
    BREAKING: CDC to announce that Americans with COVID-19 vaccine can gather indoors without masks -Fox News
    Yippee. I had dinner with 12 fellow professionals on Monday (we were all vaccinated)


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