Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

[Sea Ray]

I expect to see a lot of states pull their statewide mask mandates in the next couple of months, hopefully Ohio is one of them. Iowa and Montana just dropped theirs in the past week. I would expect Texas to drop theirs pretty soon. Living here in Ohio we can get the feeling that everyone is under a mask mandate 'cause our surrounding states all have them but that's really not the case. Travel south on I-75 and cross the KY-Tenn line and you'll not see a statewide mask mandate in Tenn, Georgia or Florida.

[Sea Ray]

I'm sick of it as well. But there isn't a set time past which we should just "get on with life." We've got to adult this thing through to its end. (What should really chap your ass is that if we'd done a hard lock down at the beginning of this thing, we'd be 6 months into a recovery right now.)

We're well on our way to a recovery. A lockdown would likely have only delayed the evitable. The only way to get past this is immunity. Ironically that means high positive numbers are a good thing in people who recover. That combined with vaccinated folks helps us get into a recovery

[Boston Red]

I'm sick of it as well. But there isn't a set time past which we should just "get on with life." We've got to adult this thing through to its end. (What should really chap your ass is that if we'd done a hard lock down at the beginning of this thing, we'd be 6 months into a recovery right now.)

When the vulnerable have been vaccinated or have at least had the opportunity and turned it down. That's the time. I don't think we could have done a lockdown that would have "worked", though. Not that would have gotten things back to relative normal any sooner. That was always going to require a vaccine (or just giving up as a society).

[757690]

My experience with doctors is that they are extremely risk adverse, for obvious reasions, especially when it comes to issues that can be fatal. They always tell me to wait an extra day or week after whenever I feel fine to resume full activity. Their argument is always, “better safe than sorry.” My guess is that they also expect everyone to be the opposite, and start pushing things earlier than they were told. I know that is my inclination. It’s human nature. I know Dusty Baker practiced this with injured players, playing them a day or two after they said they felt fine.

My guess is that we are likely going to see this approach from the CDC and other agencies, being extra cautious, telling us the latest dates possible to resume anything, under the expectation that most people won’t be that patient.

[WrongVerb]

When the vulnerable have been vaccinated or have at least had the opportunity and turned it down. That's the time. I don't think we could have done a lockdown that would have "worked", though. Not that would have gotten things back to relative normal any sooner. That was always going to require a vaccine (or just giving up as a society).

I think we could have had a much more effective lock down in the spring/summer last year if we had a culture that didn't value selfishness above all else. Too many people either want to pretend their actions have no impact on others, or else want to ignore that fact. Either way, our unwillingness to surrender to the common good has led to at least half of all covid deaths in the US. There's a reason we have 4% of the population and 20% of the deaths world-wide.

[Boston Red]

Regardless of how you feel about any of that, it's quite doubtful that anything we'd have done would have been able to get us back to normal any sooner.

[Sea Ray]

I think we could have had a much more effective lock down in the spring/summer last year if we had a culture that didn't value selfishness above all else. Too many people either want to pretend their actions have no impact on others, or else want to ignore that fact. Either way, our unwillingness to surrender to the common good has led to at least half of all covid deaths in the US. There's a reason we have 4% of the population and 20% of the deaths world-wide.

I think it's pretty much impossible to lockdown a country of 330 million for 6 mos but let's walk through this and tell me how you see it working:

1) We absolutely lock down on March 1, 2020. Only leave the house for food and medical care
2) It "works" and infection levels stay at a level like they were in April for 6 mos
3) We start to open up Sept 1.

What would keep the cases from spiking in Oct--->Jan like they actually did? How would this actually work?

[BuckeyeRed27]

When the vulnerable have been vaccinated or have at least had the opportunity and turned it down. That's the time. I don't think we could have done a lockdown that would have "worked", though. Not that would have gotten things back to relative normal any sooner. That was always going to require a vaccine (or just giving up as a society).

I still think we are on pace for early to mid April to start seeing a pretty major shift. That will get most people that absolutely need the vaccine time to get it and to see if there is any unexpected resurgence from the decline we are on now. You run the numbers on all that and it's about 6-7 weeks out. That's also around the time that JNJ should be arriving, so getting the rest of us vaccinated should go a little quicker too.

[Boston Red]

I still think we are on pace for early to mid April to start seeing a pretty major shift. That will get most people that absolutely need the vaccine time to get it and to see if there is any unexpected resurgence from the decline we are on now. You run the numbers on all that and it's about 6-7 weeks out. That's also around the time that JNJ should be arriving, so getting the rest of us vaccinated should go a little quicker too.

I have April 1 on my mental calendar, so we're in the same ballpark.

[RiverRat13]

JNJ should get approval by March 1. I believe I read they will have 12 million doses ready to go by then and then 100 million by July 1.

In my mind, the JNJ shot will be the chance for more centralized planning. The one dose is perfect for college students so they don't have to worry about the logistics of getting the second shot. If the new administration really is going to take a larger role, that would be a good place to do it.

[RiverRat13]

Moderna says they will deliver 100 million doses by the end of March and another 100 million by the end of May.

The summer should be open for business.

[Todd Gack]

Moderna says they will deliver 100 million doses by the end of March and another 100 million by the end of May.

The summer should be open for business.

Depends on where you live. Certain states will find a way to continue their unnecessary clamp down on businesses and letting willing people have fun.

[M2]

Moderna says they will deliver 100 million doses by the end of March and another 100 million by the end of May.

The summer should be open for business.

I'm going to drive across an international border just because I can.

[RiverRat13]

India’s dramatic fall in virus cases leaves experts stumped

https://apnews.com/article/india-dra...241c4c463d88ce

[Sea Ray]

Riddle me this...With all the alarm about variants, why are C19 cases dropping like a rock in countries like South Africa and the UK?

https://covid19.who.int/region/afro/country/za

https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/gb

For example, in the UK daily cases have gone from a peak of 68K daily cases to 10K in just 5 weeks. South Africa's numbers are similar. If these variants are to be feared, why are the numbers dropping so dramatically?