Covid-19, Part XI - Rounding Third?

[JaxRed]

Well the UK is because they have been vaccinating like crazy. (as well as lockdowns,etc.)

Not sure about South Africa because they have not started vaccinating yet and have just pivoted from Astra-Zeneca to J&J which has just been approved there. I have no idea what their lockdown procedures have been.


Edit: Checking on Wikpedia, they are pretty serious about lockdowns, etc. Starting Dec 1st they started locking the country down. It looks like cases peaked in early Jan. They are so serious that they arrest you if you are caught without a mask.

[RiverRat13]

Ohio's 7-day testing percent positive rate dropped to 4.9% yesterday. That's the first time it has been under 5% since mid-October.

IHME model is now forecasting that the new variants will have little effect on the Ohio's case decline. For example, on May 1, they are projecting 5.21 deaths per day in Ohio at our current rate. It only jumps to 5.42 with their "Rapid Variant Spread" projection.

The bit of bad news from yesterday is that JNJ will only have a few million doses ready when they get approval at the end of the month. Originally the estimation was 12 million. JNJ says it will still hit its 100 million doses goal by July 1, but now saying most will be delivered at the end of that timeline. Experts were hoping we'd get more in April/May. So Fauci now says that it may be May/June before vaccines are open to everyone instead of April as he had said last week.

[JaxRed]

Although I did see yesterday that Moderna had moved up their expected doses (I think one was 100 mill and the other 200 mill), up by a month.

[Roy Tucker]

I wish I had a vision for what the new normal post-vaccine world will be like. It’s going to be different just like a post 9/11 world. I think everyone says they are “over” all this and want to get back to normal. Sure, I do too. But being over it is an emotional reaction and a virus doesn’t give a **** about your emotions. If you don’t trust experts and doctors, be my guest to go lead your life as you wish. But I’m not doing that.

I’m lucky in that my old ass is getting the vaccine with my second shot on Mar 5. But I’m not going to go party like a rock star after that. My reentry into the world will be a cautious one. Others may take a dive off the high board but not me.

[Boston Red]

We've all got our risk tolerances, and we've all got different factors that go into our risk tolerance. Some of it is rational, and some is not. We'll ultimately all make our own decisions. Once the critical mass of elderly and those with comorbidities have been vaccinated, my family will go back to normal as much as possible. I booked a trip that involves flying for us in November, and we'd probably be willing to go earlier. And we're pretty lucky in that where we live outside of the first month or so things never changed all that dramatically in our day to day lives.

[JaxRed]

I'm a little of both views. I'm as pro-vaccine as you can get. I think we ought to be doing a serious carrot/stick approach to them as soon as possible. For example I would make the next (and any subsequent) stimulus contingent on having had the vaccine. I would make air travel contingent on having had the vaccine. I would make attendance at sporting events contingent on having had the vaccine.

But once we've done that the people need to be rewarded. By lifting the mask requirements etc.

In a perfect world I'd be taking a flight out to Arizona this fall. Not sure I want to do it if I have to spend all day in a mask.

[JaxRed]

Here's a company that announced breakthrough on antibodies including South African. Sounds like a treatment, and not a preventative to me.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/bac1cb93...more-than.html

[Sea Ray]

Well the UK is because they have been vaccinating like crazy. (as well as lockdowns,etc.)

Not sure about South Africa because they have not started vaccinating yet and have just pivoted from Astra-Zeneca to J&J which has just been approved there. I have no idea what their lockdown procedures have been.


Edit: Checking on Wikpedia, they are pretty serious about lockdowns, etc. Starting Dec 1st they started locking the country down. It looks like cases peaked in early Jan. They are so serious that they arrest you if you are caught without a mask.

Lockdowns can't account for a drop in cases like this, particularly if this variant is as contagious as they say:

Attachment 16979

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...n_South_Africa

As for Britain, I agree absolutely that vaccinations have helped their numbers...because the vaccinations are effective against that variant. Vaccinations are one rung of the herd immunity that's likely at the root of these numbers

[Sea Ray]

If we're really at 5 deaths per day by May then we absolutely should be fully open by then. We should let everyone choose what risk they care to take. It's next to impossible for the Reds to verify who's had what shots, nor should they have to. If you don't feel comfortable attending a Reds game, don't go, but don't impede others who feel otherwise.

[RiverRat13]

The absolute latest any mask mandate should last is when anyone who wants a vaccine can get it. If governments try to move the goalposts beyond that, then let Rojo back on here to do his thing

[JaxRed]

If I'm going to sit in close proximity to someone at a ballpark or a plane I'd like some assurance that they are vaccinated. And I don't want to sit there in a mask. I know society isn't going there, but I'd like to vaccine ID's on your phone.

Also if I'm making the rules, if someone opts out of vaccines, their insurance should not have to pay any covid related medical bills.

[RiverRat13]

Also if I'm making the rules, if someone opts out of vaccines, their insurance should not have to pay any covid related medical bills.

What if you're fat? Should your insurance pay for any heart-related medical bills? That's a slippery slope. Not to mention that the vaccines are still under EUA's.

The vaccines have incredible efficacy. The Johnson and Johnson vax is being touted as less effective, but it still had zero hospitalizations or deaths after 28 days. And after 49 days, the JNJ vax has zero cases - and it was being tested during the South African variant outbreak. If you are vaccinated, you'll be fine.

[Boston Red]

I could go for a premium surcharge for not getting vaccinated (to RR's point above, similar to what places do when you smoke or are fat), but insurance not covering medical bills is not a good idea. I don't love the "vaccine passport" idea much either. Perhaps for international travel, but beyond that it feels a bit icky.

[RiverRat13]

I could go for a premium surcharge for not getting vaccinated (to RR's point above, similar to what places do when you smoke or are fat), but insurance not covering medical bills is not a good idea. I don't love the "vaccine passport" idea much either. Perhaps for international travel, but beyond that it feels a bit icky.

I think we'll have it for international travel but don't see it for domestic. The airlines are bleeding money already. They aren't for eliminating potential customers.

[Strikes Out Looking]

Also if I'm making the rules, if someone opts out of vaccines, their insurance should not have to pay any covid related medical bills.

While I don't disagree, I sadly don't think its a workable solution.