Fans in the stands in MLB in 2021?

[Musketeer22]

Not gonna spend all day googling but this is the first thing I found in my search:



https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewals...h=669818143d2d

Lol that article is from October, 2020 aka before/at the beginning of football season. Lots of data since that has shown outdoor sporting events do not increase spread.

By the way, the virus has gone down 50% month over month since this time in January. So you can assume by April things should be even better. Article from today...

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...alling/618068/

[JaxRed]

Not gonna spend all day googling but this is the first thing I found in my search:



https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewals...h=669818143d2d

I read the article. All of the incidents listed were players spreading it to each other and family members. Not fans, unless the fans were family members who got it from living with the players.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I could link 1,000 articles but you probably have access to Google.

NCAAF and the NFL made it through their seasons, with limited attendance and no trace of positive cases resulting from it.

It is very, very rare to get Covid outside, especially with a mask on - which I'm assuming teams will require to cover the PR side of things.

I'm not saying you are wrong about it being safe to have some fans in the stands but these are anecdotes, not science

[Musketeer22]

I'm not saying you are wrong about it being safe to have some fans in the stands but these are anecdotes, not science

Understood. I don't pretend to be a scientist, I'm just a normal guy trying to filter through a lot of the noise when trying to find information on Covid.

Covid cases have declined 77% over the past 6 weeks (link in previous post). That statistic suggests we're close to herd immunity.

If we're being honest, in another 6 weeks it's probably safe to have close to capacity crowds (if it isn't already). I know, even suggesting that makes some people woozy. And I get it - I have grandparents that got covid and by the grace of God are OK now. So in no way am I trying to down play it or suggest it doesn't exist, etc. But the vaccine hasn't been widely distributed enough to play a huge role in the 77% decline - so it has to be something else - herd immunity.

Anyways, with what we do know now, there's no reason for empty stands in 2021. I respect everyone's opinion and know this is a touchy subject, but just my $0.02.

[Musketeer22]

I read the article. All of the incidents listed were players spreading it to each other and family members. Not fans, unless the fans were family members who got it from living with the players.

The NFL and the CDC did a study that basically said there wasn't one case of infection that could be traced to the 1.2M people that attended NFL games this year.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Understood. I don't pretend to be a scientist, I'm just a normal guy trying to filter through a lot of the noise when trying to find information on Covid.

Covid cases have declined 77% over the past 6 weeks (link in previous post). That statistic suggests we're close to herd immunity.

If we're being honest, in another 6 weeks it's probably safe to have close to capacity crowds (if it isn't already). I know, even suggesting that makes some people woozy. And I get it - I have grandparents that got covid and by the grace of God are OK now. So in no way am I trying to down play it or suggest it doesn't exist, etc. But the vaccine hasn't been widely distributed enough to play a huge role in the 77% decline - so it has to be something else - herd immunity.

Anyways, with what we do know now, there's no reason for empty stands in 2021. I respect everyone's opinion and know this is a touchy subject, but just my $0.02.

I know we are going down a bit of a rabbit hole here, so I apologize to the mods...

I am not a virologist nor an immunologist but do have quite a bit of experience with data. The data says something very different to me than herd immunity.

Absolutely agree cases are way down over the last 6 weeks. However, that is down from a massive peak (which probably corresponds with holiday gatherings). Cases are still up from the smaller spikes last spring and last summer. That does not scream "herd immunity" to me. That suggests the mitigation strategies are working again (vaccinations, social distancing, masks, hygiene, etc.).

With that said, I absolutely think we can have fans in the stands this summer but I think you do it stepwise and with regulations. The last thing you want to do is allow full stadiums from the jump, then have to yank it back. I'd rather start with 1/4 or 1/3 capacity and tie any step ups to average cases.

[MoneyInTheBank]

The NFL and the CDC did a study that basically said there wasn't one case of infection that could be traced to the 1.2M people that attended NFL games this year.

I'm having trouble finding that study. If you post a link, I'd be interested in reading it

[*BaseClogger*]

We're getting good news on case counts and vaccines are (slowly) being distributed so I too am optimistic for the long-term. I also think it might be ok to have some fans in the stands, especially later in the season.

My main quibble was the idea that science has declared large outdoor gatherings contribute 0% to pandemic spread as a fact (linking to the supposed study would clear this air because until proven otherwise I find it hard to believe 1.2 million people didn't spread a *single* case of COVID-19).

I don't think people sitting six feet apart from one another, masked and outdoors, contributes spread. But, I also think (as one poster who responded to me put it) it's common sense that in a large crowd there will be some people who don't follow the rules perfectly and may not be able to maintain six feet of distance and remain outdoors throughout their trip to the park, whether it be fans or employees. Half a million people have died. It can't be 100% avoided and we do have to make tradeoffs. Yes, this is a calculated risk we think is worth it, some people might get sick and somebody might die but this freedom is a worthwhile tradeoff--lets acknowledge what we're really saying and not use science to shield us from facing that reality...

[Ron Madden]

Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
There's a growing sense of optimism among the five California-based #MLB teams that they'll be able to have a limited amount of fans at their ballparks on Opening Day.

[Ron Madden]

Dodgers’ Stan Kasten optimistic team can host fans at games in 2021
Team president and CEO said Dodgers have been in contact with local health officials as well as Gov. Newsom's office

https://www.dailynews.com

[JFLegal]

yeah, if they're gonna have fans in the stands in california, i would venture to guess the same will be true in ohio.

[paulrichjr]

I know we are going down a bit of a rabbit hole here, so I apologize to the mods...

I am not a virologist nor an immunologist but do have quite a bit of experience with data. The data says something very different to me than herd immunity.

Absolutely agree cases are way down over the last 6 weeks. However, that is down from a massive peak (which probably corresponds with holiday gatherings). Cases are still up from the smaller spikes last spring and last summer. That does not scream "herd immunity" to me. That suggests the mitigation strategies are working again (vaccinations, social distancing, masks, hygiene, etc.).

With that said, I absolutely think we can have fans in the stands this summer but I think you do it stepwise and with regulations. The last thing you want to do is allow full stadiums from the jump, then have to yank it back. I'd rather start with 1/4 or 1/3 capacity and tie any step ups to average cases.

Here is an article from today that says it’s herd immunity..
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...il-11613669731


I will tell you that I heard an MD from Harvard back in Oct show with data that we would reach herd immunity by Feb. I thought he was nuts but he is looking like the genius that he is in everything I have ever heard him discuss. I can link the video if anyone is interested.

[paulrichjr]

I went ahead and linked this. This guy is honestly the most intelligent person I have ever heard speak. He is well known in the biotech industry... MD from Harvard, MIT graduate also

Anyway he made prediction using data that we would have herd immunity by Feb. Here is the link

https://insights.eventideinvestments...avirus-part-vi

[MoneyInTheBank]

Here is an article from today that says it’s herd immunity..
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-ha...il-11613669731


I will tell you that I heard an MD from Harvard back in Oct show with data that we would reach herd immunity by Feb. I thought he was nuts but he is looking like the genius that he is in everything I have ever heard him discuss. I can link the video if anyone is interested.

It's a pretty controversial opinion... the CDC and Dr. Fauci disagree

I hope we do reach it by April

[paulrichjr]

It's a pretty controversial opinion... the CDC and Dr. Fauci disagree

I hope we do reach it by April

Oh I agree. No one knows. It is interesting though that the entire world is having huge drops at the same time...except India which some think reached it months ago.