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Thread: Geno to short?

  1. #136
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    In 2019, there were only 6 position players who qualified for the batting title who had negative WAR. 3 were Pujols, Miggy and Hosmer, who were only playing because of their contracts.

    There are guys who put up negative WAR, but they almost never are starters.
    Who of the SS candidates is a lock to at least have 0 WAR? Not anybody.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH


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  3. #137
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Who of the SS candidates is a lock to at least have 0 WAR? Not anybody.
    I explained above: If the Reds discover that they don’t have at least a replacement level player on the team, they should be able to acquire one. That is the definition of a replacement player. If they can’t, then they are too incompetent to field an competitive team, it’s the easiest thing that could be asked of a front office.
    That’s why we’re playing, bro

  4. #138
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    The platoon of Farmer/Holder is gonna be at least replacement value. The question is if the pair of them can hold up for the whole season.
    I look at this in terms of the Reds’ specific needs. Reds and fans viewed filling shortstop as addressing both an offensive and defensive need. Would have been nice, yes.

    2021 Reds have defense available at shortstop. Holder supposedly. Farmer is adequate as a platoon. They have Garcia, they have Alf Rod. If all they are looking for is defense, they can add that. It’s the bat that is missing.

    Reds probably hope to improve dramatically on offense - last year as an aberration - and survive with a below average hitting shortstop. Farmer does hit lefties. You can pinch hit in a key spot. I expect that initially.

    Other options, like moving Suarez to short to make room for another bat, I see as entering the conversation later, if there is a major need on offense.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-27-2021 at 09:28 AM.

  5. #139
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Who of the SS candidates is a lock to at least have 0 WAR? Not anybody.
    If Holder is as good as advertised defensively he probably would.

    ***This is not an endorsement by me.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  7. #140
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, you keep using ZIPS. Steamer, for instance, has Garcia as exactly a replacement level player, zero WAR. You realize these projections have gigantic error bars, so when discussing them at this level of detail, it’s rather meaningless.

    Second, you made my point with your point about guys who get replaced if they produce negative WAR. That will happen with the Reds too, if that occurs. Teams pretty much always find a way to get a player who is at least replacement level to start at every position, even if it takes a mistake or two. I am confident that will happen with the Reds too.

    If it doesn’t and the Reds go an entire season with below replacement level production at SS, then we have much bigger worries as fans, because that means the organization is incompetent.
    1. We use ZiPS because that was my original contention, on which you raised an objection. Changing parameters now is dishonest. Regardless, Steamer has Farmer as -0.3, Holder as -0.1, and Garcia as 0.0. Steamer also provides AB and PA numbers. Among the three of them, they're taking nearly a full season's worth of ABs. That's -0.4 WAR from the SS position. Which is a gigantic hole to fill.

    2. So, I've talked about this before, but you must have missed it. The Reds' options at SS are (so far) four-fold: Strange-Gordon (who we'll immediately discount because he sucks, and I don't want to talk about him because it makes me depressed), Holder (who projects to be a massive drag offensively), Farmer (same), and Garcia (even worse). That's a lot of options, and none of them project to be good. I have no problems agreeing that Cincinnati will switch among them. The issue is that all of them provide negative value.

    It is only because those projections are so, so incredibly poor that Suarez is even an option worth discussing, 75.

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    *BaseClogger* (02-28-2021),Edd Roush (02-27-2021)

  9. #141
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    Re: Geno to short?

    he won't be ready (and i'm probably as big of a garcia defender as there is on this board) but if he's halfway decent with the stick at louisville for a few weeks, i bet the reds' plan is to bring up garcia and have him make most of the starts at shortstop. at the very least, he will provide good defense. and who knows, maybe his stick will come around this year at the MLB level. i'm convinced it eventually will. he's got some pop in that bat. good bat speed as well. too long of a swing but hopefully he can make that more compact.

    barry larkin doesn't go around saying "this guy is eventually going to be a monster" about just anyone. i can't remember him speaking in such glowing terms about a reds' prospect. i tend to think garcia will be at the very least a good starting MLB shortstop. my only question is when.

    so, if this is truly the plan, the platoon of farmer/strange-gordon (or holder) would probably be a very temporary solution.
    Last edited by JFLegal; 02-27-2021 at 10:24 AM.

  10. #142
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    barry larkin doesn't going around saying "this guy is eventually going to be a monster" about just anyone. i can't remember him speaking in such glowing terms about a reds' prospect.
    Larkin also expressed surety in Senzel's abilities at SS and Strange-Gordon as a free agent.

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    *BaseClogger* (02-28-2021),757690 (02-27-2021),Revering4Blue (02-27-2021),Ron Madden (02-27-2021)

  12. #143
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel like Larkin always has glowing reviews of reds SS’s.

    Also, why is he considered some kind of expert on evaluating talent? Michael Jordan can’t evaluate NBA talent to save his life.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    *BaseClogger* (02-28-2021),757690 (02-27-2021),Revering4Blue (02-27-2021)

  14. #144
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Larkin also expressed surety in Senzel's abilities at SS and Strange-Gordon as a free agent.
    ha, not even close to the same thing as saying "garcia is going to be a monster." saying nice things about strange-gordon and saying what he said about garcia are not in the same ballpark.

    regardless, we'll find out soon enough. i loved what i saw out of garcia in spring training last year. i think a lot of people here are overreacting about a very small sample size when he was a 22-year-old rookie who had never played above high-A ball yet.

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  16. #145
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    1. We use ZiPS because that was my original contention, on which you raised an objection. Changing parameters now is dishonest. Regardless, Steamer has Farmer as -0.3, Holder as -0.1, and Garcia as 0.0. Steamer also provides AB and PA numbers. Among the three of them, they're taking nearly a full season's worth of ABs. That's -0.4 WAR from the SS position. Which is a gigantic hole to fill.

    2. So, I've talked about this before, but you must have missed it. The Reds' options at SS are (so far) four-fold: Strange-Gordon (who we'll immediately discount because he sucks, and I don't want to talk about him because it makes me depressed), Holder (who projects to be a massive drag offensively), Farmer (same), and Garcia (even worse). That's a lot of options, and none of them project to be good. I have no problems agreeing that Cincinnati will switch among them. The issue is that all of them provide negative value.

    It is only because those projections are so, so incredibly poor that Suarez is even an option worth discussing, 75.
    The Reds have more options than the players currently on the 40 man roster. Teams almost never end up with the same team they enter spring training with.

    By definition, the baseline for Reds SS production this year should be replacement level, because every team should be able to find at least that level of production for free. If the Reds can’t do that, it really doesn’t matter what other moves they make.
    That’s why we’re playing, bro

  17. #146
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel like Larkin always has glowing reviews of reds SS’s.

    Also, why is he considered some kind of expert on evaluating talent? Michael Jordan can’t evaluate NBA talent to save his life.
    ok, jordan isn't, but jerry west is. see how easy that is?

    i just tend to trust barry larkin's evaluation of garcia since he worked so closely with him last spring.

  18. #147
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Reds have more options than the players currently on the 40 man roster.
    And you say this because you've seen how well they've done so far in acquiring a shortstop?

    They've had multiple bites at this apple and have chosen not to play. At some point, shouldn't that inform your opinion?

  19. #148
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    ok, jordan isn't, but jerry west is. see how easy that is?

    i just tend to trust barry larkin's evaluation of garcia since he worked so closely with him last spring.
    For every Jerry West I can name pretty much every single star NBA player in history. If Larkin were West he would be a GM right now.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  21. #149
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    For every Jerry West I can name pretty much every single star NBA player in history. If Larkin were West he would be a GM right now.
    if he would want the job, maybe he would have it. the reds are all about nepotism anyway.

    and i'm sure he's more qualified than nick krall regardless. all larkin would have needed to do was not have the worst offseason in reds' history and he would have topped the job krall did.

  22. #150
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    And you say this because you've seen how well they've done so far in acquiring a shortstop?

    They've had multiple bites at this apple and have chosen not to play. At some point, shouldn't that inform your opinion?
    To be more precises, they chose to play, but lost. Probably worse, to be honest.

    They were trying to upgrade the position, and failed. If they get to opening day, and still haven’t upgraded the position, and none of the guys they have look to be at least replacement level, there will be at the least replacement level options available. Teams are always looking to upgrade at every position.

    If you think the Reds can’t find a replacement level SS to start the season, they have much bigger problems then.
    That’s why we’re playing, bro


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