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Thread: Geno to short?

  1. #166
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I would posit that the demands on one's throwing arm are less in CF than at 3B and that one can provide more defensive value with a weak arm in CF than at 3B. Juan Pierre and Johnny Damon were never gonna play 3B... I'd be happy to have somebody with more first hand coaching/playing experience contradict me, but that's my understanding.



    I am not having it both ways. I'm saying the following:

    1) Geno is not a -50 SS -- not remotely close. So I don't know what that was part of the conversation at all.

    2) The reason you don't generally see teams move 3B back to SS is because it's usually just a game of whack a mole with relatively little upside, a neutral shifting of production that doesn't accomplish much while possibly lower that players total value in the short-term.

    3) The Reds are in an unusually position where their math is different. They have nothing resembling an even decent non-Geno option at SS. Their current set of options basically have replacement level upside. Meanwhile, they have an average defensive 3B with SS experience and a bat that can carry a ding to his defensive value, a 2B with extensive 3B experience, an athletic OF with 2B/3B experience and a bat with upside who is otherwise going to be stuck in a platoon. It's a pretty strange confluence of circumstances.

    It's still entirely reasonable to conclude that all the positional shifting and clubhouse uncertainty that creates isn't worth the extra win or two the math says you likely get from it. That's an entirely defensible position. But claiming that Geno would be a historically poor defensive SS is not. Nor is claiming having a historically poor defensive SS necessarily spells doom for a team.
    I honestly don’t think it’s all that far out there to say that Geno would be historically bad at SS. He wasn’t good there before, he might not even be a good 3B at this point. I don’t think it’s at all outside the range of realistic possibilities that could happen.

    And I think a really good team could absorb historically bad defense at SS, like a division winner 100 win kinda team. The Reds aren’t that good.


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  3. #167
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Suarez was also coming off of shoulder surgery in 2020 and the Reds had no issue with him at 3B, so there goes that theory.
    You fail to mention both that Senzel would have had to learn a completely new position AND the fact that the Reds had SS that projected to have higher WAR. (Which I've already told you once in this thread.)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    This started with post #106, in which BZ brought up the 50 runs below average number.
    To show you the chasm of how low Suarez's defense would have to be to match the ZiPS projections of Garcia, et al. (assuming he matched his offensive numbers from 2018 and 2019).

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    You're saying that this is the first time that a team had to deal with having a replacement level SS? That's absurd. Plenty of teams have been in a similar position the Reds are in, and to the best of my knowledge, none of them have moved their 3B to SS to make room for more offense.
    Of course not. You know that. You've been told this repeatedly in this thread, yet you continue to ignore it. Read RMR's last post on the subject again. Heck, read the five posts I've posted on it. The Reds are rather uniquely set up to possibly use Suarez where other teams have not been. They have replacement OF, replacement 3B, replacement 2B, and a whole lot of jack crap at SS.

    BTW, there have been quite a few teams in history that have moved players all over the diamond to boost their offensive numbers. Texas is doing just what you consider to be impossible this year.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    SS is a much harder position to fill than 3B. Far more often a team has excess 3B than it does SS. The Reds this year have like 7 3B options and zero SS options, lol. This notion that teams would have a hard time finding another bat to put into the lineup flies in the face of history and logic.
    And yet here we are, waiting for the Reds to add a SS bat. We've been waiting all off-season.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Again, you need to pick a horse. Does the math work with Suarez or doesn't it? If it does, then there should be more examples of this throughout history. Not often, but definitely enough for us to notice and remember.
    Psst. The Rangers are doing it this year. There are bunches of other examples-- you just don't seem to remember them. Ben Zobrist, Hanley Ramirez, and Howard Johnson were All-Stars that immediately came to mind for me. All three played SS after they spent time at 3B.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 02-27-2021 at 03:58 PM.

  4. #168
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    You fail to mention both that Senzel would have had to learn a completely new position AND the fact that the Reds had SS that projected to have higher WAR. (Which I've already told you once in this thread.)
    What? Senzel was originally a 3B. And the Reds choose to pick up Galvis' option. They easily could have denied it and started Suarez at SS instead.


    Psst. The Rangers are doing it this year. There are bunches of other examples-- you just don't seem to remember them. Ben Zobrist, Hanley Ramirez, and Howard Johnson were All-Stars that immediately came to mind for me. All three played SS after they spent time at 3B.
    Kiner Falefa has a career .699 OPS. The Rangers aren't doing this to get a better bat into the lineup, they are doing it because they have a severe lack of talent throughout the roster.

    Johnson and Zobrist were never starting SS for their teams. They both received occasional starts at SS, but never were their team's starting SS.
    That’s why we’re playing, bro

  5. #169
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    What? Senzel was originally a 3B. And the Reds choose to pick up Galvis' option. They easily could have denied it and started Suarez at SS instead.
    They had a better option than they do now by almost 2.0 WAR (projected).

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Kiner Falefa has a career .699 OPS. The Rangers aren't doing this to get a better bat into the lineup, they are doing it because they have a severe lack of talent throughout the roster.

    Johnson and Zobrist were never starting SS for their teams. They both received occasional starts at SS, but never were their team's starting SS.
    Eyeroll.

  6. #170
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    This is clearly not the worst offseason in reds history. Give me a break.
    what is?

    no snark, can't recall a worse one than this one (when you factor in arrivals/departures). not even a close second, in fact.

    but since it's so clear, which offseason was worse in recent memory? (let's say last 20 years.)

  7. #171
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Despite this conversation getting weirdly caught up on Barry Larkin’s opinion of him, I still feel pretty good about Jose Garcia’s chances of becoming a good player in the next year or two. It’s not like he’s a complete scrub that a former Red decided to shower praise on.
    I really hope this is true. He certainly has the glove and he’s a solidly built guy with quick hands.

    I think what has worried me most about this is the Reds to either:
    - Not a articulate a clear vision of their SS future and that Garcia was where they were going all along.
    - Or they wanted to sign a 1 year stopgap SS and couldn’t execute.

    Saying “we tried hard but couldn’t pull it off” doesn’t sit well with me. And waiting to see what SS flotsam and jetsam floats close by in spring training is not a strategy or a move of a good organization.

    I just don’t like how this has failed to progress. Get off my lawn.
    True Yodas are never young.

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  9. #172
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    what is?

    no snark, can't recall a worse one than this one (when you factor in arrivals/departures). not even a close second, in fact.

    but since it's so clear, which offseason was worse in recent memory? (let's say last 20 years.)
    This was my first response on seeing this comment too. I ....I can't recall a time when the reds front office seemed to be trying to pull the team into contention and made upwards progress in the division and then publicly pulled the carpet out from underneath the team.

    The drop between the 2013 team that lost a playoff to get into the playoffs and then became a second division team for 6 years isn't really on the same level. I think everyone felt that for the team to get over the top they had to lose Dusty and that Price was the obvious choice moving forward. Yeah...that looks strange now, but it's how folks felt. I can't really fault the front office for that.

    No. Looking over the last 20 years, I can't think of an offseason that was as bad as this one and I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt on most deals.

    I can squint at the 95-96 off season where Ray Knight replaced Davey Johnson and the outline of the disaster is pretty clear. David Wells got dumped for a bag of magic beans, but the front office didn't know that Knight was going to kill Schourek's career by having him throw 140 pitches on a cold day in April and ...well Ray Knight can't really be blamed for Willie Greeene. The organization had to play him to find out what they had.

    Yeah....I think you have to go back to the 80's to find a similarly bad off season. Maybe even the 60's and the Robinson trade.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  10. #173
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    The Reds “lost” Bauer to FA, and from the time of the trade that landed him, it was a fair assumption that that would be the case.

    It’s hard to count that as a true “departure/dump” since that was a pretty much known quantity when landing him. Having said that he is no longer with the team.

    But I can’t use his departure to build a “woe is us” case, despite the underwhelming offseason.

  11. #174
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    They had a better option than they do now by almost 2.0 WAR (projected).
    No they didn't. They had to pay him $5M to stay. If they make Suarez the SS, move Senzel to 3B, they then have more AB's for Shogo, and they have $5M to spend on help elsewhere. It's really not much different than what they have this year.
    That’s why we’re playing, bro

  12. #175
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    I really hope this is true. He certainly has the glove and he’s a solidly built guy with quick hands.

    I think what has worried me most about this is the Reds to either:
    - Not a articulate a clear vision of their SS future and that Garcia was where they were going all along.
    - Or they wanted to sign a 1 year stopgap SS and couldn’t execute.

    Saying “we tried hard but couldn’t pull it off” doesn’t sit well with me. And waiting to see what SS flotsam and jetsam floats close by in spring training is not a strategy or a move of a good organization.

    I just don’t like how this has failed to progress. Get off my lawn.
    Don’t get me wrong, I think they’re boned at that position this season either way at this point. But just speaking like medium to long term, I feel good about Garcia’s chances.

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  14. #176
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Of course not. You know that. You've been told this repeatedly in this thread, yet you continue to ignore it. Read RMR's last post on the subject again. Heck, read the five posts I've posted on it. The Reds are rather uniquely set up to possibly use Suarez where other teams have not been. They have replacement OF, replacement 3B, replacement 2B, and a whole lot of jack crap at SS.
    This is false. Teams every year have a hole at SS and look to fill it. If the math works out as you say, instead of going out and finding a SS, just move the 3B to SS and find a 3B. 3B are much easier to find and cheaper. I mean, look at how Fangraphs values each position. SS get by far the biggest positional adjustments, and they get an even additional one if they are good hitters, because it's so rare to find a good hitting SS (which is how this discussion started).

    The Reds situation is not unique. The only thing that is unique about it is how long the Reds have gone without filling the SS position. But at the beginning of the off season, there are teams in similar situations (no SS, multiple guys who can play 3B) every year. Most fill the SS with a true SS right away. I wonder why?
    That’s why we’re playing, bro

  15. #177
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    The Reds “lost” Bauer to FA, and from the time of the trade that landed him, it was a fair assumption that that would be the case.

    It’s hard to count that as a true “departure/dump” since that was a pretty much known quantity when landing him. Having said that he is no longer with the team.

    But I can’t use his departure to build a “woe is us” case, despite the underwhelming offseason.
    right, we all knew they wouldn't re-sign bauer. but the (as now we know BS) narrative was they would use some of that money to improve the 2021 club. they didn't.

  16. #178
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    what is?

    no snark, can't recall a worse one than this one (when you factor in arrivals/departures). not even a close second, in fact.

    but since it's so clear, which offseason was worse in recent memory? (let's say last 20 years.)
    I mean, take your pick from the lost decade. But, not sure anything can top the offseason headlined by:

    Aroldis Chapman

    For

    Caleb Cotham
    Rookie Davis
    Eric Jagielo
    Tony Renda
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  18. #179
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I mean, take your pick from the lost decade. But, not sure anything can top the offseason headlined by:

    Aroldis Chapman

    For

    Caleb Cotham
    Rookie Davis
    Eric Jagielo
    Tony Renda
    you just mic dropped me.

    well played.

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  20. #180
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Geno to short?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Don’t get me wrong, I think they’re boned at that position this season either way at this point. But just speaking like medium to long term, I feel good about Garcia’s chances.
    This is where I am. I like Garcia long term. My concern is that throwing him to the wolves now may prevent him from being all he can be down the road. I really wish they had a competent stopgap.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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