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Thread: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

  1. #31
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You might be right on Aquino, and Heineman is making a bid for that roster slot.

    Hoffman strikes me as a guy who'll pass through waivers and then they can work on him down in AAA.
    Heineman is more of a classic fifth OFer than Aquino. More versatile. Plays first, plays CF, corner OF obviously.

    If it were a platoon situation, I might expect Reds to keep AA for PAs against lefties. But Reds won’t use a strict L/R platoon, they already have four regular type OFers needing playing time in three spots.

    It also ties in with Strange-Gordon, he’s another lefty bat, if he makes the team then one of the RHH, Aquino or Heineman, could have a leg up as fifth OFer.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-09-2021 at 08:22 AM.


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  3. #32
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    I'm guessing the combination of Antone, Lorenzen, Miley, DeLeon, and possibly C. Perez, Hoffman, and even Mahle are going to end up largely interchangeable.

    They'll go twice through the lineup, then get taken out unless they're absolutely on cruise control.

  4. #33
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm guessing if he's getting regular multi-inning work in the pen, then he's ready to be a short duration SP. Interchangeability is one of the upsides of that model. The Astros had Brad Peacock in that role in recent years. He mostly relieved for them, but he got 42 starts from 2016-19 (21 in their title season).
    I’m a fan of this model, especially in ‘21. Cionel, Antone and De Leon could all prove very useful in a good system. All three should get plenty of innings with guys like Miley and Lorenzen ahead of him.

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  6. #34
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Pretty clear to me the bench will include:
    Shogo
    Stephenson
    Blandino
    Gordon

    And last spot goes to Aquino if he's out of options, or Naquin if Aquino can be sent to AAA.

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  8. #35
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    If Aquino gets optioned, I'm starting to like Heinemen for that spot over Naquin.
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  9. #36
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    If Aquino gets optioned, I'm starting to like Heinemen for that spot over Naquin.
    Does Naquin have options?

  10. #37
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by UPRedsFan View Post
    Does Naquin have options?
    Naquin is on a minor league deal so he doesn't need to be optioned. What we don't know is if he has a clause that allows him to released if not on the big club by a certain date.
    Last edited by JaxRed; 03-08-2021 at 05:14 PM.
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  11. #38
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Thanks Jax.

  12. #39
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by UPRedsFan View Post
    Pretty clear to me the bench will include:
    Shogo
    Stephenson
    Blandino
    Gordon

    And last spot goes to Aquino if he's out of options, or Naquin if Aquino can be sent to AAA.
    Is this assuming Farmer is the starting SS, becasue I think he's on the roster somewhere. The fly in the ointment is Strange-Gordon. They need to cut him as soon as possible IMO. I think Naquin needs to make the team as well. I think the bench has Shogo, Stephenson, Naquin. The last two spots go to down to Heineman and Blandino IMO Aquino gets traded, Farmer is the starter at SS, Holder goes back to his old team and Gordon gets sent packing. The guy it would be nice to keep is Schrock, but he's not playing defense at all and seems to only DH when he plays. The reds don't have room for another one of those. If Garcia makes a push and makes the team as opening day SS, that could change a lot of things, but I'm starting to think that's not happening. If it does, one of Blandino or Heineman probably gets sent down.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  13. #40
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    So let’s assume Farmer as starting shortstop since somebody needs to be. Whether he plays full or part time. That leaves only two locks for the bench: Shogo and Stephenson.

    If 13 position players, five man bench, three spots remain available.

    Looks fairly wide open. Aquino, Naquin, Heineman, Garcia, Holder, Blandino, Strange-Gordon would seem the main candidates. That’s seven guys for three spots.

    And there are others, Schrock, Cuthbert, Alf Rod, for example, lot of bench candidates.

    The biggest change I see from expectations is Blandino getting more playing time than expected. Last year he seemed maybe on his way out since he didn’t make the team almost all year.

    It’s too soon to tell how this winds up, again, one can’t get too dazzled by early spring training statistics.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-09-2021 at 08:48 AM.

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  15. #41
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    The one guy I'm starting to pay attention to as a dark horse all of sudden is AlfRod. He now looks kind of heavy for SS, he's not on the 40. But he's still hitting .462 (no walks). I haven't paid attention as to whether they are fluke hits or solid. But I'll start watching.

    And after a hot start Farmer down to .222
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  16. #42
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    So let’s assume Farmer as starting shortstop since somebody needs to be. Whether he plays full or part time. That leaves only two locks for the bench: Shogo and Stephenson.

    If 13 position players, five man bench, three spots remain available.

    Looks fairly wide open. Aquino, Naquin, Heineman, Garcia, Holder, Blandino, Strange-Gordon would seem the main candidates. That’s seven guys for three spots.

    And there are others, Schrock, Cuthbert, Alf Rod, for example, lot of bench candidates.

    The biggest change I see from expectations is Blandino getting more playing time than expected. Last year he seemed maybe on his way out since he didn’t make the team almost all year.

    It’s too soon to tell how this winds up, again, one can’t get too dazzled by early spring training statistics.
    This is true and why I have Naquin as a lock. He's an established big league player who is cheap. I know the Reds have Shogo already but Naquin as a lefty fits as a caddy for Castellanos which saves Shogo for a bigger role. I'd probably only keep 5 infielders. The infielders are the more iffy players than the outfielders this year. Why keep more iffy guys? They can get another if they need one in a day. If Senzel has to play IF for a few innings in an emergency, so what? Heineman and Blandino would be my other bench guys. I am completely closed minded on Gordon. Don't want him and don't care what he does the rest of spring. Aquino and Schrock are the guys I'd like to keep, but it's not a disadter if they can't. Cuthbert, Alf and Holder are minor leaguers. I wouldn't mind keeping Holder in AAA in a Paul Janish kind of way, but with Garcia and Alf I don't see the need to have a pure glove stashed down there.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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  18. #43
    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    I'll take a shot (and will likely update this list later to make it appear like I know what I'm talking about LOL).

    Everyday(8):
    1b Votto
    2b Moustakas
    SS Farmer
    3b Suarez
    LF Winker
    CF Senzel
    RF Castellanos
    CA Stephenson

    Bench(5):
    OF Akiyama
    IF Blandino
    CA Barnhart
    IF Holder
    OF Aquino

    Rotation(5):
    RH Gray
    RH Castillo
    RH Mahle
    RH Antone
    LH Miley

    Bullpen(8):
    LH Garrett
    LH Doolittle
    LH Perez
    RH Lorenzen
    RH Sims
    RH Bedrosian
    RH DeLeon
    RH N.Ramirez
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  19. #44
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    My preference and supporting arguments.

    Holder is rule 5 so he can't be stashed in AAA. Send him back to the Yankees, unless he can grab the starting job from Farmer.
    Strange Gordon needs to be released. He's like Jankowski but with a 26 man roster instead of 27. Speed is nice and maybe late inning outfield defense, but there just isn't room on the bench and he's not grabbing the starting job either.
    Aquino still looks lost. Find a trade partner.
    Garcia isn't near ready. He's got to be able to hit inside fastballs and layoff outside breaking balls.
    AlfRod - tempting early offense, but AAA insurance is the best spot for him.
    Heineman - only reason to keep him or Aquino is if you think Winker cannot hit lefties. This is tempting, but I like Schrock off the bench to add offense to the SS position in the order as a pinch hitter for Farmer

    My bench would be:
    Shogo
    Stephenson
    Blandino (backup SS and an option for 2b against tough lefties when Moose needs a break. He plays acceptable defense, puts together good ab's and can get on base - .349 career. He's 28 - time to get some value)
    Naquin (The best track record of the bench candidates and he seems healthy this year. I like Heineman but Naquin is a big leaguer and more accomplished. 1st round pick who can play all 3 outfield spots in a pinch)
    Schrock (Left hand bat to pinch hit for Farmer in key situations. Better hitter than Holder. Won't strike out much and puts the ball in play, nice option to have up in a situation with runners on base and less than 2 outs)
    Last edited by UPRedsFan; 03-09-2021 at 10:58 AM.

  20. #45
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    I agree on Holder - Reds should move on ASAP and give guys like Blandino, India and Schrock more chances at SS. I think we'll see Garcia and India at AAA for a month or two, but Garcia should be the eventual starter on his glove alone, and India looks like a useful super-utility who can take a walk and hit for power.

    I have no idea where they stand on the last OF spot - Aquino, Naquin and Heineman are all options. I get the feeling they might find a trade partner for Aquino.

    Bullpen looks like it will be a battle. You have to think Cionel and Bedrosian have the upper hand on spots, leaving the last roster spot down to Hoffman or De Leon, unless a guy starts the year on the DL.

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