Options play a big role in determining 26 man roster spots. Armed with Kinsm's data on that I set out to predict the opening day roster. Before a pitch is thrown in ST.
The thing that ended up impressing me is how few decisions there really are. The first decision is whether you go with a 13/13 split on position and pitchers. I decided they would go 13/13. Going 14 pitchers does not leave you with enough flexibility in position players, and going with 14 position players doesn't give them enough pitchers to reduce everyone's workload coming out of the gate.
One caveat... sometimes with the extra day off on Day 2, the actual 26 man roster shows up on Day 3 or 4.
Position Players
1. 1b - Votto
2. 2b - Moose
3. 3b - Geno
4. C - Barnhart
5. LF - Winker
6. CF - Senzel
7. RF - Castellanos
8. C - Stephenson
9. OF - Shogo
10. INF - Farmer
Those 10 are locks
11. OF - Aquino. (This is an options decision). He's out of options.
12. INF - Holder (This is based on Rule 5. He's no better or worse than Blandino. But Blandino has options and Holder does not as Rule 5 guy.
13. SS - Gordon. (I'm assuming they give starting gig to Gordon assuming Garcia doesn't grab the job in ST. It solves a lot of problems if Garcia grabs the job).
Pitchers
1. Gray
2. Castillo
3. Mahle
4. Lorenzen
5. Miley
6. Doolittle
7. Sims
8. Antone
9. Garrett
10. Ramirez
11. DeLeon (options decision)
12. Hoffman (options decision)
13. Bedrosian. This is the one big decision. And the Reds are working with inside information. The Reds for some reason really like Romano more than his stats would indicate. He is out of options and can refuse an outright assignment if he clears waivers. If Bedrosian has a clause in his contract where he can opt out if not on the 26 man roster, then I say this slot goes to him. If he does not... I say they give it to Romano.
So this is opening day roster. I think only one guy has the ability to play his way into the 26, and that is Garcia. Several people have the chance to stink their way OFF the roster.
1. Aquino
2. Hoffman
3. DeLeon