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Thread: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

  1. #1
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Options play a big role in determining 26 man roster spots. Armed with Kinsm's data on that I set out to predict the opening day roster. Before a pitch is thrown in ST.

    The thing that ended up impressing me is how few decisions there really are. The first decision is whether you go with a 13/13 split on position and pitchers. I decided they would go 13/13. Going 14 pitchers does not leave you with enough flexibility in position players, and going with 14 position players doesn't give them enough pitchers to reduce everyone's workload coming out of the gate.

    One caveat... sometimes with the extra day off on Day 2, the actual 26 man roster shows up on Day 3 or 4.

    Position Players
    1. 1b - Votto
    2. 2b - Moose
    3. 3b - Geno
    4. C - Barnhart
    5. LF - Winker
    6. CF - Senzel
    7. RF - Castellanos
    8. C - Stephenson
    9. OF - Shogo
    10. INF - Farmer

    Those 10 are locks

    11. OF - Aquino. (This is an options decision). He's out of options.
    12. INF - Holder (This is based on Rule 5. He's no better or worse than Blandino. But Blandino has options and Holder does not as Rule 5 guy.
    13. SS - Gordon. (I'm assuming they give starting gig to Gordon assuming Garcia doesn't grab the job in ST. It solves a lot of problems if Garcia grabs the job).

    Pitchers

    1. Gray
    2. Castillo
    3. Mahle
    4. Lorenzen
    5. Miley

    6. Doolittle
    7. Sims
    8. Antone
    9. Garrett
    10. Ramirez
    11. DeLeon (options decision)
    12. Hoffman (options decision)

    13. Bedrosian. This is the one big decision. And the Reds are working with inside information. The Reds for some reason really like Romano more than his stats would indicate. He is out of options and can refuse an outright assignment if he clears waivers. If Bedrosian has a clause in his contract where he can opt out if not on the 26 man roster, then I say this slot goes to him. If he does not... I say they give it to Romano.

    So this is opening day roster. I think only one guy has the ability to play his way into the 26, and that is Garcia. Several people have the chance to stink their way OFF the roster.

    1. Aquino
    2. Hoffman
    3. DeLeon
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  3. #2
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    There is a difference between what the Reds will do and what I'd want them to do.

    C Barnhart
    C Stephenson
    1B Votto
    2B Moustakas
    3B Suarez
    SS Garcia
    OF Winker
    OF Senzel
    OF Akiyama
    OF Castellano
    OF Aquino
    OF Naquin
    IF Farmer
    Comment: I'd love for them to prove me wrong and trade for a quality SS, but that seems impossible for the current front office and ownership group. I suspect the Reds will go with Garcia as a glove-first guy, with Farmer as his caddy and third catcher. (I do wish Bell would use that position more often-- Barnhart is hopeless against LH. Pinch hitting Stephenson when opposing managers move to a southpaw would improve his odds greatly.) Aquino and Naquin provide quality backup (and a L/R split) at the OF corners.

    Assuming no deals, were it my team, I'd put Suarez at SS, Garcia in AAA, and bring up Heineman as Shogo's backup CF. If Senzel felt comfortable at 3B, I'd be fine with Moustakas at 2B. (They're pretty interchangeable defensively, I'm guessing.) Farmer would play everywhere across the infield as pretty much the only backup. (Blandino would be in my three-person queue all season, and I'd scour available infielders for help on the waiver wire.)

    SP Castillo
    SP Gray
    SP Mahle
    SP Miley
    SP Lorenzen
    RP Antone
    RP DeLeon
    RP Bedrosian
    RP Doolittle
    RP Garrett
    RP Sims
    RP Ramirez
    RP Hoffman
    Comment: This would seem the easiest way route, assuming health. The spring battle would be Romano v. Hoffman for last spot on the roster. DeLeon's in unless he catches Steve Blass disease, IMO. (His arm is too high end, and they paid a relatively high price in keeping him.) Ramirez is going to make the squad, if only to prove the Iglesias trade right. I'm not sure who closes, but suspect it'll be either Doolittle or Garrett, as that balances out the back-end of the pen nicely. (Were it me, I'd consider Antone for a two-inning fireman role similar to the late 70's Bruce Sutter/ Rollie Fingers iteration of bullpens, but that's probably too avant garde for baseball in today's world.

    Were it my team, I'd start DeLeon and install Lorenzen as closer. That'd (IMO) make the bullpen a major strength (the best in the NL Central, top to bottom) and provide the rotation with upside. I'd also recognize that the lack of options in the bullpen would hamstring me at some point. I'd definitely play fast and loose with injury "concerns" and use the living snot out of the DL (or whatever they call it this season).

  4. #3
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    1. Barnhart
    2. Votto
    3. Moose
    4. Strange-Gordon
    5. Suarez
    6. Cast
    7. Senzel
    8. Winker
    9. Shogo
    10. Stephenson
    11. Aquino
    12. Farmer
    13. Naquin
    14. Gray
    15. Castillo
    16. Mahle
    17. Miley
    18. Lorenzen
    19. Antone
    20. Bedrosian
    21. Ramirez
    22. DeLeon
    23. Hoffman
    24. Sims
    25. Doolittle
    26. Garrett

  5. #4
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    So both of you predict 6 outfielders and only one backup INF?
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    DeLeon and Hoffman are both 28 years old. I don't know if they will make the roster or not but I don't think they will hesitate to DFA them if they don't show something

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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    1. Barnhart
    2. Votto
    3. Moose
    4. Garcia
    5. Suarez
    6. Cast
    7. Senzel
    8. Winker
    9. Shogo
    10. Stephenson
    11. Aquino
    12. Holder
    13. Naquin
    14. Gray
    15. Castillo
    16. Mahle
    17. Miley
    18. Lorenzen
    19. Antone
    20. Bedrosian
    21. Ramirez
    22. DeLeon
    23. O’Brien
    24. Sims
    25. Doolittle
    26. Garrett
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  9. #7
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    My turn:

    IF Votto, Moose, Garcia, Suarez, Farmer (5)
    C Barnhart, Stephenson (2)
    OF Castellanos, Senzel, Winker, Shogo, Aquino, Naquin (6)
    SP Castillo, Gray, Mahle, Miley, Lorenzen (5)
    BP Doolittle, Garrett, Sims, Antone, Befrosian, Ramirez, Deleon, C. Perez (8)

    Hoping for s trade still.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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  11. #8
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Early, initial predictions with three wild cards. 6 IF (including utility), 5 OF, 2 catchers, 5 starters, 8 relievers.

    Starting infield with Holder/Farmer platooning at shortstop. Sixth infielder/utility Strange-Gordon edging out Cuthbert.

    Four main outfielders. Wild Card#1 - Aquino out of options traded, Heineman makes team to fill RHH fifth OF spot.

    Barnhart and Stephenson catching.

    SP, “big three” plus Lorenzen. Hoping Miley is healthy but Wild Card #2, De Leon begins season in rotation as Wade continues to get ready.

    Bullpen Sims, Garrett, Antone, Doolittle, Bedrosian, Ramirez, DeLeon, Romano. If DeLeon in rotation (see Wild Card #2), add C. Perez.

    Wild Card#3, someone listed in this post loses out to a waiver wire pickup.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-28-2021 at 05:11 PM.

  12. #9
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    So both of you predict 6 outfielders and only one backup INF?
    I noticed that too when I made the list. It’s unsettling. But farmer can cover any infield spot. Moose can cover all but SS. Senzel can cover all but SS. There might be enough flexibility there.

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    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Ok here's mine:

    Starters:

    Votto, Moose, Farmer, Suarez, Barnhart, Winker, Senzel, Castallanos

    Backups:

    Shogo, Naquin, Holder, Stephenson, Strange-Gordon

    Rotation:

    Castillo, Gray, Mahle, Lorenzen, Miley

    Bullpen:

    Garrett, Doolittle, Sims, Antone, DeLeon, Bedrosian, Ramirez, Hoffman

    Trades:

    -I can see Aquino being traded for a couple of prospects in low A

  14. #11
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    On the topic of options, here is an interesting article where Doug Gray has learned Aquino and De Leon may have another option left

    https://www.redlegnation.com/2021/02...ut-of-options/

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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Nice find. If Aquino and DeLeon could be full time players at AAA with the ability to come up to big club for trials that would be huge. More so for Aquino who I really think could benefit from playing everyday.

    Edit: And if they do have options, that changes a lot on the predictions.
    Last edited by JaxRed; 03-01-2021 at 07:47 AM.
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  18. #13
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    It would give Gordon-Strange a way in and provide a bullpen spot for one person with options (Warren, Osich, Perez, Perez, et al) a shot. (And through his spot, many others.)

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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    Nice find. If Aquino and DeLeon could be full time players at AAA with the ability to come up to big club for trials that would be huge. More so for Aquino who I really think could benefit from playing everyday.

    Edit: And if they do have options, that changes a lot on the predictions.
    Saw this options article last night - does potentially change the predictions, certainly mine were based on Aquino out of options.

    Slight disagreement however on Aquino. He’ll be 27 in April, has about 3,000 minor league PAs. Already dominated at AAA in 2019. Not sure what another AAA season would add to his development.

    But - another option year would increase Aquino’s trade value and/or enable Reds to stash him off roster if needed for roster purposes.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-01-2021 at 08:57 AM.

  20. #15
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    I assume union would have to sign off on this. I'd like to see them negotiate this into place and as a reward get an extra roster spot and/or the DH.
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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