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Thread: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

  1. #46
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Blandino (solid utility player) and Naquin (cheap majorleaguer) makes sense. Then it gets a bit harder but I like either Heineman or Schrock.


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  3. #47
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by UPRedsFan View Post
    My preference and supporting arguments.

    Holder is rule 5 so he can't be stashed in AAA. Send him back to the Yankees, unless he can grab the starting job from Farmer.
    Strange Gordon needs to be released. He's like Jankowski but with a 26 man roster instead of 27. Speed is nice and maybe late inning outfield defense, but there just isn't room on the bench and he's not grabbing the starting job either.
    I wonder if the hope is that Holder or Strange Gordon, both left-handed hitters, will platoon with Farmer, whose hitting numbers the past couple of years have been respectable against left handed pitching, but terrible against right handers. Last season, .903 OPS vs. LHP, .478 OPS vs. RHP; career .761 OPS v. LHP, .605 OPS vs RHP. Wouldn't either of them be likely to exceed Farmer's production against righties?

  4. #48
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by CesarGeronimo View Post
    I wonder if the hope is that Holder or Strange Gordon, both left-handed hitters, will platoon with Farmer, whose hitting numbers the past couple of years have been respectable against left handed pitching, but terrible against right handers. Last season, .903 OPS vs. LHP, .478 OPS vs. RHP; career .761 OPS v. LHP, .605 OPS vs RHP. Wouldn't either of them be likely to exceed Farmer's production against righties?
    The problem there is that both of those guys suck even more than Farmer (who is already a questionable choice), and if they're in a platoon that means they'll be getting more chances since they'll be facing more RHP.

    Just play the glove - Garcia - and pray he figures out how to hit on the job. This team could really use Garcia on the infield; his glove is even better than advertised. Garcia is the best option and it's not even that close tbh.

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    757690 (03-10-2021)

  6. #49
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    The problem there is that both of those guys suck even more than Farmer (who is already a questionable choice), and if they're in a platoon that means they'll be getting more chances since they'll be facing more RHP.

    Just play the glove - Garcia - and pray he figures out how to hit on the job. This team could really use Garcia on the infield; his glove is even better than advertised. Garcia is the best option and it's not even that close tbh.
    Holder is about to turn 27 and hasn't made it out of AA yet. No power and couldn't even get on base well in AA. Don't want that player getting the majority of ab's at SS. I feel the same about Gordon. Not sure his performance gets better against righties. I'd rather platoon Blandino and Farmer for 80% of the ab's, with Schrock taking the other 20% as a pinch hitter in key spots. That would be my plan until Garcia is ready. I think they'll at least keep Garcia down long enough to get an extra year of control though. But your argument about the glove is sound.

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    Mitri (03-09-2021)

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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by UPRedsFan View Post
    Holder is about to turn 27 and hasn't made it out of AA yet. No power and couldn't even get on base well in AA. Don't want that player getting the majority of ab's at SS. I feel the same about Gordon. Not sure his performance gets better against righties. I'd rather platoon Blandino and Farmer for 80% of the ab's, with Schrock taking the other 20% as a pinch hitter in key spots. That would be my plan until Garcia is ready. I think they'll at least keep Garcia down long enough to get an extra year of control though. But your argument about the glove is sound.
    Yes, my argument assumes they'll keep him down for a month to find a groove at the plate. And I hate to say it, but Farmer is the guy I'd cut or trade once Garcia is ready. Okay who am I kidding, I love saying that.

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    M2 (03-09-2021)

  10. #51
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Whole lotta people putting Miley in the rotation even though he hasn't thrown a pitch in a game this spring. Also, he's kind of terrible. He puts on baserunners like crazy and absolutely needs a good to great defense behind him.

    Honestly, if the Reds are truly becoming an analytics based team, he's on a super short leash, headed towards mopup duty in the pen or even a DFA.

    So this is my preferred lineup, but I'm probably wrong.

    The rotation should be Castillo, Gray, Mahle, Antone, Lorenzen.

    The new pitching regime (Boddy) need a success story so one of Romano/Finnegan may make the bullpen. Probably Romano.

    Garrett, Sims, Doolittle, Romano/Finnegan, C. Perez, Biddle, Bedrosian, Miley

    Position Players

    Votto, Moose, Suarez, Tucker, Cast, Senzel, Winker

    SS seems to me like a see who sticks: Farmer, Strange-Gordon, Blandino

    C Stephenson

    OF Akiyama, Naquin

    This assumes Aquino has an option remaining, but honestly he's not kicking the door down. That's 5 OF's and 2 INF that have at least SOME experience in the OF.
    Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.

  11. #52
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by UPRedsFan View Post
    Holder is about to turn 27 and hasn't made it out of AA yet. No power and couldn't even get on base well in AA. Don't want that player getting the majority of ab's at SS. I feel the same about Gordon. Not sure his performance gets better against righties. I'd rather platoon Blandino and Farmer for 80% of the ab's, with Schrock taking the other 20% as a pinch hitter in key spots. That would be my plan until Garcia is ready. I think they'll at least keep Garcia down long enough to get an extra year of control though. But your argument about the glove is sound.
    Your plan sounds like as good of an option as the Reds have. The team may not have a starter identified, but at least we don't have to fear that they are unaware of what players they have at the position.

    “I feel great about the options that we have. I’m not ready today to name a starting shortstop by any means, but at the same time we know who we have,” said manager David Bell. “We’re familiar with our personnel and the options we have at the position – we feel great about that.”

    https://www.redlegnation.com/2021/02...alex-blandino/

  12. #53
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    It might feel great to have options, just wish some of the options were better.

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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Whole lotta people putting Miley in the rotation even though he hasn't thrown a pitch in a game this spring. Also, he's kind of terrible. He puts on baserunners like crazy and absolutely needs a good to great defense behind him.

    Honestly, if the Reds are truly becoming an analytics based team, he's on a super short leash, headed towards mopup duty in the pen or even a DFA.
    I don't think many people are putting Miley in the rotation because that's what they prefer. I think they are putting him in there because that's what they think the Reds will do.

    As far as him being terrible, I don't really agree. He's fine. An innings eater that keeps you in games. Just too expensive for a small market team for what he provides

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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Why do people think a guy with a career 1.39 WHIP, pedestrian stuff and one good half season in the last 5 years is a good option? It's similar to this weird desire for Lorenzen to start. Maybe it's just me, but a proven guy that gets me a 1.5 WHIP at age 34? Just not interested. Antone, Mahle, even Lorenzen at least have the youth and potential. Miley is what he is, and it was never really good. Spectacular half season in 2018, decent in 2019. Terrible in SSS last year, and the 4 years before 2018? awful.
    Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.

  15. #56
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    If the Reds move on from Holder, I would expect Farmer to start at short with Blandino and Strange-Gordon as reserve IFs.

    Both Blandino and Gordon can backup at short, neither is a true shortstop. They both have experience at the position.

    My sense is Reds want Garcia to get more seasoning.

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    BEETTLEBUG (03-10-2021)

  17. #57
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Why do people think a guy with a career 1.39 WHIP, pedestrian stuff and one good half season in the last 5 years is a good option? It's similar to this weird desire for Lorenzen to start. Maybe it's just me, but a proven guy that gets me a 1.5 WHIP at age 34? Just not interested. Antone, Mahle, even Lorenzen at least have the youth and potential. Miley is what he is, and it was never really good. Spectacular half season in 2018, decent in 2019. Terrible in SSS last year, and the 4 years before 2018? awful.
    Again, nobody is out here excited for Wade Miley

    Look at his projections. 4.8ish FIP and 1.2 WAR. That's about standard for a 4/5 starter. It's the price tag that is bad for Miley

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    BEETTLEBUG (03-10-2021)

  19. #58
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Why do people think a guy with a career 1.39 WHIP, pedestrian stuff and one good half season in the last 5 years is a good option? It's similar to this weird desire for Lorenzen to start. Maybe it's just me, but a proven guy that gets me a 1.5 WHIP at age 34? Just not interested. Antone, Mahle, even Lorenzen at least have the youth and potential. Miley is what he is, and it was never really good. Spectacular half season in 2018, decent in 2019. Terrible in SSS last year, and the 4 years before 2018? awful.
    That's some highly selective slicing you've got there. Miley's got a career ERA+ of 98 (4.24 ERA). His ERA the past three seasons is 3.64 (262.1 IP and a 123 ERA+). I don't know what Miley's got left in the tank. I don't think anyone expects better than some innings eating if he turns out all right. He's a cutter-change guy who works mostly in the 80s. He's here because Johnson worked with him and likes him, and Johnson generally seems to know what he's doing. So, assuming Miley's groin is fine this season, he's probably going to get the chance to be a BOR starter.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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    herbdizzle (03-10-2021),Mitri (03-10-2021)

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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Miley is clearly a Derek Johnson guy. While Miley's peripherals in Milwaukee make you want to puke, he was aces with Johnson for half a season. Miley went on to throw 167 solid innings for the AL-pennant-winning Astros in 2019.

    You can see what the Reds were betting on when they offered him 2/$15 million. It was extravagant at the time, but the Reds were "going for it." I would imagine Johnson vouched for him (and I'd be inclined to throw Johnson a bone every once in a while). The problem is he seems like he's cooked. He hardly pitched last year, and given all the time off, he's still not ready for Spring Training. I think we'll see a couple aborted attempts by Miley to make a go of it, but I'd be shocked if he threw more than 50 innings this year.

    If he is healthy and just easing his way back into things, he's a great bottom-of-the-rotation arm. He's overpaid for the gig, but having a crafty veteran that's had a lot of success makes for a great changeup. There's no Cy Young around the bend for Miley, but he'll give the Reds a chance to win on a consistent basis. And that's be great.
    Last edited by BillDoran; 03-10-2021 at 12:52 PM. Reason: I don't know baseball history.

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  23. #60
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    Re: The Tea Leaves (tm) predict the opening day roster

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    Miley is clearly a Derek Johnson guy. While Miley's peripherals in Milwaukee make you want to puke, he was aces with Johnson for half a season. Miley went on to throw 167 solid innings for the World Champion Astros in 2019.

    You can see what the Reds were betting on when they offered him 2/$15 million. It was extravagant at the time, but the Reds were "going for it." I would imagine Johnson vouched for him (and I'd be inclined to throw Johnson a bone every once in a while). The problem is he seems like he's cooked. He hardly pitched last year, and given all the time off, he's still not ready for Spring Training. I think we'll see a couple aborted attempts by Miley to make a go of it, but I'd be shocked if he threw more than 50 innings this year.

    If he is healthy and just easing his way back into things, he's a great bottom-of-the-rotation arm. He's overpaid for the gig, but having a crafty veteran that's had a lot of success makes for a great changeup. There's no Cy Young around the bend for Miley, but he'll give the Reds a chance to win on a consistent basis. And that's be great.
    Yep, that. The only way we're going to see a lot of him is if he's pitching fairly well. If you think there's quality guys waiting in the wings (e.g. Antone), then it's not much of a problem - someone will take his place and provide an upgrade if/when he goes splat. What would be a problem is if no one is capable of answer the call if/when he goes splat. The Reds have been in that situation for most of the 21st century, but I don't think the 2021 model has that issue. I think they've got enough options to sort out the back of the rotation.

    Side note: the 2019 Washington Nationals would like to reclaim their title.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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