cumberlandreds (03-05-2021)
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Old school 1983 (03-05-2021)
Randy Johnson struggled for his first 5 seasons in the majors:
Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards 1988 24 MON NL 3 0 1.000 2.42 4 4 0 1 0 0 26.0 23 8 7 3 7 0 25 0 0 3 109 151 3.15 1.154 8.0 1.0 2.4 8.7 3.57 1989 25 TOT MLB 7 13 .350 4.82 29 28 1 2 0 0 160.2 147 100 86 13 96 2 130 3 7 7 715 82 4.05 1.512 8.2 0.7 5.4 7.3 1.35 1989 25 MON NL 0 4 .000 6.67 7 6 1 0 0 0 29.2 29 25 22 2 26 1 26 0 2 2 143 54 4.52 1.854 8.8 0.6 7.9 7.9 1.00 1989 25 SEA AL 7 9 .438 4.40 22 22 0 2 0 0 131.0 118 75 64 11 70 1 104 3 5 5 572 92 3.94 1.435 8.1 0.8 4.8 7.1 1.49 1990 26 SEA AL 14 11 .560 3.65 33 33 0 5 2 0 219.2 174 103 89 26 120 2 194 5 2 4 944 108 4.29 1.338 7.1 1.1 4.9 7.9 1.62 AS 1991 27 SEA AL 13 10 .565 3.98 33 33 0 2 1 0 201.1 151 96 89 15 152 0 228 12 2 12 889 103 4.00 1.505 6.8 0.7 6.8 10.2 1.50 1992 28 SEA AL 12 14 .462 3.77 31 31 0 6 2 0 210.1 154 104 88 13 144 1 241 18 1 13 922 105 3.61 1.417 6.6 0.6 6.2 10.3 1.67
Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)
757690 (03-05-2021)
It may be uncommon for a guy to be a non-prospect who turns into an Ace, because just being an Ace is uncommon.
But there are a number of examples of pitchers who struggled at first, then turned around and became decent pitchers at a late age. It almost never happens to hitters, but does happen to pitchers for some reason.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
A problem with moving Antone to the rotation is that then Miley gets bumped to the bullpen (I assume).
Then the bullpen only has 2 reliable arms, the rest are question marks. The bullpen is already too thin.
I guess Lorenzen could get moved back to the pen instead, but I am not sure that Antone would do better than Lorenzen in the rotation.
There's a pretty good chance Antone would be better than Miley, I agree with that.
It's not unreasonable to keep Antone in the pen this year, give him a heavier workload , see what happens, and if he does well, then put him in the rotation in 2022. Miley and Lorenzen are pending FAs (IIRC), so there will be openings next year.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Jesse Sanchez mlb.comTejay Antone knows what he wants.
“I want to start,” Antone said after two dazzling innings against the Dodgers in Wednesday night's 4-4 tie at Camelback Ranch. “But wherever this team needs me, I’ll be.”
It’s uncertain what role he will play when camp breaks at the end of March, but it could be in the bullpen. He’s competing against Jeff Hoffman, Michael Lorenzen and José De León for a spot in the rotation. Last season, Antone went 0-3 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 13 games, including four starts.
“The fastball was right where I wanted it. The slider was right where I wanted it,” Antone said. “I was making good adjustments on the curveball and I didn’t throw any changeups. Everything is right where I wanted so far. Go back to this week and kind of flush this and keep getting to work.”
Last edited by Ron Madden; 03-05-2021 at 01:17 PM.
I absolutely hate the notion of not putting a guy in the rotation because you need him in the bullpen. Yes, there are niche circumstances where he can have extra value to the team through leverage. But it's exceedingly difficult for that extra value to eclipse the value lost by giving twice (or more) the number of innings to inferior pitchers.
People worry way too much about the bullpen protecting leads late in games and too little about creating leads to protect.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
*BaseClogger* (03-05-2021),Kingspoint (03-06-2021),membengal (03-05-2021),Ron Madden (03-05-2021),Roy Tucker (03-06-2021)
In today’s game a reliever can get nearly as many innings as a BOR starter. Include that this year, teams will be limiting starter’s innings even more, utilizing more “bullpen days” and using relievers even more, and I don’t think it will matter much if Antone is officially in the rotation or not. My guess he will get around 100 IP no matter what this season, if he’s healthy.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
That's a good point, but without Antone, the bullpen is only two people deep. Everyone else is a crapshoot.
So, in this case, I think there's an exception. Antone is potentially more valuable in the bullpen, because all his innings out of the pen are likely to be high leverage, even though there's fewer of them.
If the Reds had a deeper pen, I'd probably agree with you.
I do think there's potentially a benefit to his development to pitch a full year out of the pen too. I can't quantify it though. It was common to do in the old days, and it worked back then. Of course, that's not real proof, I didn't intend to say it was proof.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
So I finally got an idea of what my guy Antone looked like in his Dodger outing.
Sat 98-99 spinning it at 2800
Slider spinning like 3300
Curve ball like 3100
Those are ridiculously high spin rates (read into that what you want). But it bodes very well for his success this season.
I was told he was a little amped up given he is trying to make the rotation. Probably won't sit high 90's during the season but will sit 96-97 touching high 9's. With the weapons he has (quality of off speed pitches) and those spin rates, it is going to be tough to keep him out of the rotation. Can hide his FB behind those quality off speeds and then run that FB by guys up in the zone with that velo and spin. High K rate. And that is what we saw with 5 out of 6 by K in the game.
Last edited by jup; 03-06-2021 at 02:43 AM.
*BaseClogger* (03-08-2021),BillDoran (03-06-2021),Mitri (03-06-2021),Old school 1983 (03-06-2021),REDREAD (03-06-2021),Tuff Nut (03-06-2021)
Yeah count me in. Antone needs to be the 4th starter.
Miley, Lorenzen, De Leon can battle for the rest of the starts.
Old school 1983 (03-06-2021)
If Reds think Antone is clearly the best candidate for effective, consistent 5 inning outings, he will and should get the job. I don’t think Reds will assign him to the pen at the expense of the rotation.
Where I disagree with some is that Reds will decide rotation spots based on early ST two inning showings. Reds know Antone can be great in short stints, he proved that last season.
It isn’t easy to find true, effective starting pitchers today. If DJ is convinced Antone is the real deal as a starter, it’ll be tough to keep him in pen.
Last edited by Kc61; 03-06-2021 at 08:59 AM.
REDREAD (03-06-2021)
I mostly agree that the back end of the rotation will shake out over the course of ST and the early part of the season, and the best guys will likely get their innings. But it is becoming clear that Antone has the most tantalizing stuff after Castillo/Gray/Mahle and appears to be determined to win a spot. Obviously health will play a major role, and also in-game durability as you mention.
I kind of wish they'd just give Lorenzen the closer role (a nice consolation prize to starting) and pencil Antone and Miley into the back of the rotation.
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