Reds Emphasizing Line-Drive Approach

[Ron Madden]

There will be an emphasis this season on hitting down through the ball. When the Reds spent the offseason studying what went wrong with the offense, they felt they eliminated their margin for error with how many balls were hit into the air.

The Reds were encouraged by the quality of contact they made, and they were tied for third in the league in walks. They ranked eighth in barrels per plate appearance, according to Statcast. The top five teams in that category were the best offenses: the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays.

They are returning virtually the same starting lineup as the group that struggled last year with their only change among starters at shortstop. They felt they had a good offense entering last season, but they didn’t have 162 games to prove it.

“In the 60-game season with everything going on last year - I think guys were trying a little bit too hard to get things going,” Zinter said. “I think if you talked to these guys individually, they were trying to get on track, and it took them a few weeks to a month or so, and when we did get on track, the season is almost over. It would be nice to see what would have happened if our big guys would’ve got 400 more plate appearances to see what would have happened, but they didn’t and that was the season.”

Cincinnati Enquirer: 'Everybody is on a mission': Cincinnati Reds emphasizing line-drive approach for offense

[MoneyInTheBank]

Cincinnati Enquirer: 'Everybody is on a mission': Cincinnati Reds emphasizing line-drive approach for offense

So, they are taking the line-drive approach to hitting and the driveline approach for pitching

[Bourgeois Zee]

So, they are taking the line-drive approach to hitting and the driveline approach for pitching

Makes for cheaper T-shirts

[JaxRed]

I wonder how the 'line drive approach' works with all the guys supposedly changing their swing on their own over the winter.

It looked to me (definitely a non-scout) that Geno had gone all out for launch angle last year in his effort to hit more home runs. Then I hear he plans to hit 50 (with a mushier ball).Don't know if he's bought into this.

[MikeS21]

I wonder how the 'line drive approach' works with all the guys supposedly changing their swing on their own over the winter.

It looked to me (definitely a non-scout) that Geno had gone all out for launch angle last year in his effort to hit more home runs. Then I hear he plans to hit 50 (with a mushier ball).Don't know if he's bought into this.

Perhaps this is why that the bats seem to be quiet in the first couple of preseason games.

[texasdave]

I did not really understand this article, or the reasoning behind switching their approach.

1) They were encouraged by the quality of contact made.
2) They were 8th in barrels per plate appearance, which is normally a good indicator of a quality offense.
3) After a slow start, they got on track but the season ended.
4) The hitting coach would have liked to have seen the results over a full season.

Additionally, it has been noted on this site numerous times that the team was historically unlucky from a BABIP point of view.

So, why the change?

[757690]

I did not really understand this article, or the reasoning behind switching their approach.

1) They were encouraged by the quality of contact made.
2) They were 8th in barrels per plate appearance, which is normally a good indicator of a quality offense.
3) After a slow start, they got on track but the season ended.
4) The hitting coach would have liked to have seen the results over a full season.

Additionally, it has been noted on this site numerous times that the team was historically unlucky from a BABIP point of view.

So, why the change?

First, while the Reds were historically “unlucky” according to BABIP, theh were just standard unlucky according to Statcast.

Second, this move towards more line drives goes beyond just the Reds. Many teams, after looking at the data, are moving in this direction. It seems that focusing on launch angle is not producing the results hoped for. Tampa Bay made this move last year or earlier, and they went to the World Series, and usually are considered to be at the top of the learning curve when it comes to data.

[JFLegal]

First, while the Reds were historically “unlucky” according to BABIP, theh were just standard unlucky according to Statcast.

Second, this move towards more line drives goes beyond just the Reds. Many teams, after looking at the data, are moving in this direction. It seems that focusing on launch angle is not producing the results hoped for. Tampa Bay made this move last year or earlier, and they went to the World Series, and usually are considered to be at the top of the learning curve when it comes to data.

not doubting you, just curious: how are both of those things true? i was led to believe BABIP is the best metric for determining luck for hitters. you see it all the time. e.g. "this guy batted .330, but after adjusting his BABIP to league average, he's more like a .280 hitter."

so, if the reds were historically unlucky in BABIP last season, how were they just "regular" unlucky?

[757690]

not doubting you, just curious: how are both of those things true? i was led to believe BABIP is the best metric for determining luck for hitters. you see it all the time. e.g. "this guy batted .330, but after adjusting his BABIP to league average, he's more like a .280 hitter."

so, if the reds were historically unlucky in BABIP last season, how were they just "regular" unlucky?

Statcast is more accurate than BABIP.

BABIP just looks at all the balls in play and figures out how many were ruled hits.

Statcast looks at all the balls hit fair, and analysis how well they were hit, using exit velocity, barreling of the bat, launch angle, etc.

They do similar work, but Statcast looks at the data in greater detail.

For the record, BABIP said that the Reds were 40 points of BA “unlucky”. Statcast said that the Reds were 10 points of wOBA unlucky. That’s a big difference. One is historic, one is just standard unlucky.

[Boston Red]

Hit the center of the ball with the center of the bat and good things will happen.

[mth123]

This is the best news of the off-season. Hope it actually happens and it's not just Spring Training talk.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I could be wrong but I think this sounds like a bigger change than it actually is. For me, "swinging down through the ball" is more of a mindset than a substantial mechanical change

[RedsManRick]

I have a couple of posts in recent years that had graphics which touch on this issue:

https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...rom-TangoTiger
https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...y-Launch-Angle

This graphic from that post is my favorite. Left to right is low exit velocity to high exit velocity. Y-axis is wOBA (run value). Yellow line is grounders. Red line is low liners. Purple line is high liners. It illustrates a basic concept that if you hit the ball at a lowish angle, harder is always better, but your power upside is limited. If you hit the ball a high angle, you better be making very contact or you're going to get punished.

As a team last year, the Reds had the 7th highest average launch angle and the 20th highest average velo. They were 9th in barrels, which is good. But because of their LA/velo combo (and likely because of a healthy dose of bad luck), when they weren't hitting barrels, they weren't getting hits. And that's a problem.

It's OK if guys like Castellanos, Suarez, Winker, and Moose look to elevate -- those guys regularly hit the ball north of 95 mph, which is where fly balls shine. But guys like Votto, Senzel, Shogo, and Barnhart don't seem to have the raw power required to justify a high launch angle approach.

[CesarGeronimo]

After finishing 27th out of 30 teams in runs scored in 2020 and not improving their personnel during the offseason (the Doolittle offseason), the Reds are aiming for line drives and luck in 2021.

[CarolinaRedleg]

Luck (and hope) should not be a strategy.