Wade Miley #4

[Griffey012]

Let’s say you’re right and one or two of the turnaround guys pitch as well as Bradley. It’s still an unfortunate decision.

You need 8 good relievers. If low-cost guys add, fine, but why not still have Bradley?

The Reds gave away Bradley for nothing. Unless they have a fully stocked, high level pen, they could use him. He has a very good track record in relief, even has been a good closer at times.

There’s no way around it. The only gain on the Bradley deal was money. And how much of it was used to add good players to the team?

They gave him away for roughly negative $4-$5M dollars depending on who replaced him. The fact Bradley barely got paid more on the open market than the Reds would have had to pay him implies he doesn't have some sort of excess value over what the Reds had to pay him. The Reds seemingly couldn't trade him for anything. And since he didn't have any excess value and a non-guaranteed contract, the Reds essentially just chose to not sign Archie Bradley as a FA for $5M and the Phillies chose to sign him for $6M.

[Ron Madden]

Let it go is about all you have to support your argument on this. Deals get revisited all the time. Everyone is free not to participate.

Look, all that matters is how the Reds bullpen does in 2021.

[Griffey012]

Bradley averaged 8.8 Ks last year, over 10 with the DBacks. He never really got started with the Reds and that pulled it down to 8.8.

Bedrosian averaged 6.8, well below league average. Big difference.

If he was viewed by MLB as a “fine bullpen piece” Cam would have been paid by somebody. He’s been a solid reliever, but last year raises warning signs. That’s the risk.

The MLB as a whole has been wildly terrible at paying "fine bullpen pieces". Bradley also had warning signs last year, decreased fastball velocity, decreased K's, increased barrel rate, and statcast showing he was no different than his typical self. His expected ERA was 4.16. He has been a 3.50 ERA guy the past two seasons.

Granted, all of those 2020 stats are from a pretty small samples size, about 25-30% of his normal season.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Bradley averaged 8.8 Ks last year, over 10 with the DBacks. He never really got started with the Reds and that pulled it down to 8.8.

Bedrosian averaged 6.8, well below league average. Big difference.

If he was viewed by MLB as a “fine bullpen piece” Cam would have been paid by somebody. He’s been a solid reliever, but last year raises warning signs. That’s the risk.

Bedrosian had a 6.8 K/9 in 14.2 innings and it's a giant red flag but Bradley averaged 7.0 K/9 in 7.2 innings with the Reds and you're making excuses for it.

To say if Bedrosian was any good someone would have given him a major league deal is just kind of a lazy argument to me. He has been a perfectly capable bullpen piece, if not a good one.

I'm saying Bradley is a "fine" bullpen piece. He's not special. Does Bedrosian=Bradley? No but the performance gap isn't Closer for a Contender vs. Minor League Deal. I don't know why it turned out that way. So all this stress over it seems silly

[REDREAD]

The Bradley move demonstrates why spending on relievers doesn’t make sense for the Reds.

They let him go, and he ended up getting what he would get in arbitration, $6M. His spot in the Red pen has been filled easily for far less, around $1M a year, depending on who you believe took Bradley’s spot.

Bradley's spot was filled cheaper, yes. But will his replacement be a positive contributor? Remember, if the Reds had kept Bradley, the least effective reliever on the bullpen gets bumped off the roster. Hard to believe the last guy out of the pen is as good as Bradley.

We can logically argue that Noe replaced Inglesis because that was a trade. But since there was no return for Bradley, the last guy out of the pen replaces him.

[REDREAD]

You’re clearly over valuing Bradley. He’s a meh middle reliever. 3.91 career ERA, 3.65 FIP. Nothing special

Bedrosian, Ramirez, Finnegan, DeLeon and C. Perez all look to be just as average as Bradley. Maybe even Doolittle if his last appearance is an accurate representation. Osich and Biddle have looked good and have decent track records.

Replacing relievers isn’t that hard. Lots of them out there, though they are volitile.

3.65 career FIP is actually pretty good. I don't think ERA is a good way to measure relievers (although I think it's more useful for starters). Since you chose FIP, let's look at some of the other career FIP of Reds' pitchers.

Lorenzen: 4.28
Miley: 4.12
Gray: 3.66
Castillo: 3.77
Garrett: 5.19
Sims: 4.79
Mahle: 4.71 (3.88 in last year's breakout season)

Career FIP is not a good argument for you to use that Bradley is "nothing special".

[Kc61]

Bedrosian had a 6.8 K/9 in 14.2 innings and it's a giant red flag but Bradley averaged 7.0 K/9 in 7.2 innings with the Reds and you're making excuses for it.

I see a difference between an injured Bedrosian who averaged 6.8 Ks and a healthy Bradley who averaged 10.1 with Arizona and fell off as a very lightly used Red. And I don’t think it’s lazy to refer to MLB’s perception of these guys in FA market, as reflected by their off-season deals.

The inconvenient fact is that Reds took on much additional risk with their pen selections this year. I believe fans of most teams would be very concerned. Reds fans not so much, we’re kind of used to this.

Edit: Bradley did have a late injury last season, see my post below.

[757690]

3.65 career FIP is actually pretty good. I don't think ERA is a good way to measure relievers (although I think it's more useful for starters). Since you chose FIP, let's look at some of the other career FIP of Reds' pitchers.

Lorenzen: 4.28
Miley: 4.12
Gray: 3.66
Castillo: 3.77
Garrett: 5.19
Sims: 4.79
Mahle: 4.71 (3.88 in last year's breakout season)

Career FIP is not a good argument for you to use that Bradley is "nothing special".

Starters ERA and FIP are apples to oranges. Starters always have much higher ERA’s and FIP’s because they have to pitch longer, face everyone mulitple times, etc..

A special reliever ERA and FIP is below 3. Those are the late inning guys. Those with ERA’s and FIP’s like Bradley are middle relievers.

[757690]

Bradley's spot was filled cheaper, yes. But will his replacement be a positive contributor? Remember, if the Reds had kept Bradley, the least effective reliever on the bullpen gets bumped off the roster. Hard to believe the last guy out of the pen is as good as Bradley.

We can logically argue that Noe replaced Inglesis because that was a trade. But since there was no return for Bradley, the last guy out of the pen replaces him.

My argument is that Bradley is one of the last guys out of the pen, a middle reliever. That is how the Reds used him last year, and how they likely were going to use him this year.

The fact that he only pitched 7 innings for the Reds last year should be a telling sign. The Reds were not high on him, and did not see him as a late inning, high leverage reliever. If they did, he would have pitched more often, and in higher leverage situations.

[Kc61]

My argument is that Bradley is one of the last guys out of the pen, a middle reliever. That is how the Reds used him last year, and how they likely were going to use him this year.

The fact that he only pitched 7 innings for the Reds last year should be a telling sign. The Reds were not high on him, and did not see him as a late inning, high leverage reliever. If they did, he would have pitched more often, and in higher leverage situations.

I went back on the internet, recalled that Bradley may have had an injury. He did, that’s why he pitched so few times for Reds. He was being used regularly, but his regular season ended September 20. It was lower back tightness, so if you want to argue he’s not healthy, go ahead. Already pitched four times, effectively, this spring.

Archie pitched quite well for Reds before that injury, one can see from the game logs. From those game logs, to the extent one can tell, he pitched in both low and high leverage situations.

[Kc61]

Double post, sorry.

[REDREAD]

Bedrosian and Doolittle are reliable bullpen arms. As good as Bradley? Probably not but the gap is small

I like the Bedrosian signing. The point is, the Reds could have had Bedrosian and Bradley and bumped a wildcard out of the bullpen.
Dolittle? Hard to say if that is a good signing or not. Worth the risk, but he has injury issues. I hope he pans out, but given a choice right now, I'd rather have Bradley than Dolittle.

[REDREAD]

We shouldn't worry too much about replacing the 7.2 innings pitched that Archie Bradley had for the Reds in 2020

The point is though, they could have kept Bradley and gotten more than 7.2 quality innings out of him in 2021.
Your logic makes no sense.
The 2020 pen was not very good until the last 2 weeks of the season (lead primarily by Inglesis who had a fantastic Aug/Sept).
If the 2020 pen was dominating all year, and everyone was retained, except Bradley was swapped out for someone else.. then yea, maybe you have a point.

Is Bradley going to be better than the last man in the Red's 2021 bullpen? If he's healthy, most definitely yes.

[REDREAD]

Talking about meaningless.
He's not the Reds property, let it go!
I doubt if most of the people crying about Archie Bradley had even heard of him before he became a Red.

You have lost the argument, so suddenly this is a bad thread. Typical Redszone.
You are free to stop discussing it and free to stop checking this thread.

[REDREAD]

Starters ERA and FIP are apples to oranges. Starters always have much higher ERA’s and FIP’s because they have to pitch longer, face everyone mulitple times, etc..

A special reliever ERA and FIP is below 3. Those are the late inning guys. Those with ERA’s and FIP’s like Bradley are middle relievers.

Then the Reds have no special relievers, right?
That counters the argument that the Reds' pen will be just fine.
You are the one that used career FIP as the criteria to evaluate relievers. I included the starters for comparison.
You say that 3.65 career FIP is nothing special, yet it's better than any established pitcher on our staff. (Although a virtual tie with Gray).. so logically, that means Gray and Castillo are nothing special too?

Why is FIP only valid for relievers and not starters? Explain please.
Even if you toss out the starters on the list I gave, Bradley clearly has a better FIP than any reliever we have. That's the metric you chose -- I wasn't the one that chose it.