Wade Miley #4

[MoneyInTheBank]

You might be right, but that's a bad plan IMO. (Not criticizing you personally, just if that was the plan)

My opinion: The Reds were desperate to make a big push in 2020 and made some poor decisions.. Miley, Shogo, and Strop.
Castanellos and Moose? They weren't horrible decisions. The problem is that there's no financial wiggle room to build the rest of the team. In a vacuum? Sure, they were ok signings. Big picture? The budget is so tight, the Reds are going to slowly sink as the team ages. When all the contracts roll off, the Reds should have budget room, but not much of a "core" left to build on.
Castillo in Gray will likely either be traded or leave as FA. But maybe the Reds surprise us and extend one or both of them.

Shogo and Miley make something like 15 million between them this year.. for a borderline starting pitcher and a 4th OF. That's really what's killing us this year.

If Castanallos did opt out, the offense (Which was 25th last year in runs scored) gets even worse. Shogo would not likely be able to pick up the slack. I'm glad Cast did not opt out. If he did, the Reds probably would not have spent the savings.

I don't know. I guess when you assume the worst that the Reds wouldn't have spent the money, then yeah, bad plan.

If they spend on a good SS, they get a massive upgrade there while downgrading in the OF, so it's probably a wash overall and it makes the Shogo signing look better.

I agree, seeing the cut in payroll this year, Miley probably never made sense

[Ash11]

I don't know. I guess when you assume the worst that the Reds wouldn't have spent the money, then yeah, bad plan.

If they spend on a good SS, they get a massive upgrade there while downgrading in the OF, so it's probably a wash overall and it makes the Shogo signing look better.

I agree, seeing the cut in payroll this year, Miley probably never made sense

Assume the worst?

They haven’t won a playoff series since JavaScript was invented

[REDREAD]

I don't know. I guess when you assume the worst that the Reds wouldn't have spent the money, then yeah, bad plan.

If they spend on a good SS, they get a massive upgrade there while downgrading in the OF, so it's probably a wash overall and it makes the Shogo signing look better.

I agree, seeing the cut in payroll this year, Miley probably never made sense

I guess it depends on what you think Shogo would produce in a full year.
I'm not optimistic.. but I don't want to start that debate again.. let's see what happens.
But yea, let's assume Shogo is a 2 WAR player in 2021 if he plays fulltime, then yes.. that plan makes sense.

[Ash11]

Giving Wade Miley a rotation spot in 2021, When he’s been statistically one of the worst pitchers in baseball over his last 20 starts (spanning 2 seasons) is something only this team would do. Therefore I’m sure the reds will do it. You can’t be consistently a laughingstock without making decisions like this.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I guess it depends on what you think Shogo would produce in a full year.
I'm not optimistic.. but I don't want to start that debate again.. let's see what happens.
But yea, let's assume Shogo is a 2 WAR player in 2021 if he plays fulltime, then yes.. that plan makes sense.

I don't think Shogo even has to get to 2 WAR for the plan to work. In a typical year, Castellanos is around a 2.5 WAR player while Reds SS produced negative WAR. If they can get positive WAR out of the SS position with an actual FA signing or trade, Shogo would only need to be 1ish WAR.

But, it's all hypothetical since Castellanos didn't opt out and they have no SS. So.... GO REDS!

[MoneyInTheBank]

Wade Miley's last 20 starts: 8-5 record, 4 or more ER 4 times
Trevor Bauer's last 20 starts: 7-9 record, 4 or more ER 6 times
Luis Castillo's last 20 starts: 8-10 record, 4 or more ER 6 times

CALM DOWN

[Ash11]

Wade Miley's last 20 starts: 8-5 record, 4 or more ER 4 times
Trevor Bauer's last 20 starts: 7-9 record, 4 or more ER 6 times
Luis Castillo's last 20 starts: 8-10 record, 4 or more ER 6 times

CALM DOWN

Last 20 starts. 5.2 era and 1.8 whip

Last 10 starts. 13 era and 3 whip.

He is awful

[SunDeck]

Bring back the SunDeck

I never left, sheesh. Nor do I refer to myself as "The Sundeck", but I'll admit having considered going the third person route on occasion.

Maybe the best solution is for people to withhold rising to this kind of trolling stuff until a person has a join date that is not the current month (just four days in, no less) and they have shown some evidence of skin in the game, like maybe 500 posts. Nothing says whiff like crickets.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Last 20 starts. 5.2 era and 1.8 whip

Last 10 starts. 13 era and 3 whip.

He is awful

Mike Trout's last 10 games: .216 Average

[REDREAD]

I don't think Shogo even has to get to 2 WAR for the plan to work. In a typical year, Castellanos is around a 2.5 WAR player while Reds SS produced negative WAR. If they can get positive WAR out of the SS position with an actual FA signing or trade, Shogo would only need to be 1ish WAR.

But, it's all hypothetical since Castellanos didn't opt out and they have no SS. So.... GO REDS!

I understand your logic and math, but the problem I have with the logic is that if we are starting an OF with only a 1 WAR,
the team needs to be looking to replace that player ASAP. So it would just move the hole from SS to the OF, even though it would be a net gain.. In other words, I would rather have an OF with a 2.5 WAR and a SS with a -0.5 WAR than an OF with a 1 WAR and a SS with a 1 WAR, if money is not a consideration. The reason is because it's a lot easier to upgrade from a -0.5 WAR guy (in theory, a replacement player is available at the MLB minimum), and the 2.5 WAR player is already above average.

Now, I know in your example, the SS might have been closer to a 2.0 WAR player, I was just using other numbers to make the point that it's a lot more difficult to get above average players (guys above 2.0 WAR).

But yea, good hypothetical discussion, go reds

[MoneyInTheBank]

I understand your logic and math, but the problem I have with the logic is that if we are starting an OF with only a 1 WAR,
the team needs to be looking to replace that player ASAP. So it would just move the hole from SS to the OF, even though it would be a net gain.. In other words, I would rather have an OF with a 2.5 WAR and a SS with a -0.5 WAR than an OF with a 1 WAR and a SS with a 1 WAR, if money is not a consideration. The reason is because it's a lot easier to upgrade from a -0.5 WAR guy (in theory, a replacement player is available at the MLB minimum), and the 2.5 WAR player is already above average.

Now, I know in your example, the SS might have been closer to a 2.0 WAR player, I was just using other numbers to make the point that it's a lot more difficult to get above average players (guys above 2.0 WAR).

But yea, good hypothetical discussion, go reds

Oh, I'm with you that a 2.5 WAR player + a -0.5 WAR player is more valuable than two 1 WAR players. It was just me trying to read the tea leaves of their actions these last 2 years (spending like drunken sailors in 2020 and slashing payroll in 2021 when their "window is still open") and make sense of it all.

[Ash11]

Miley topped out at 85 mph yesterday. Lol

He’s like a worse version of Jeff francis and Jason marquis now

[tripleaaaron]

Actually all of these guys have three more years and gone:

Votto, Joey
Castellanos, Nick
Moustakas, Mike
Gray, Sonny (counting option year)
Castillo, Luis
Winker, Jesse
Mahle, Tyler
Garrett, Amir
Ramirez, Noe

Before then are these players:

Miley, Wade
Akiyama, Shogo
Lorenzen, Michael
Barnhart, Tucker
Doolittle, Sean

In 2024 we have Suarez and then who? Way different team in 2024.

This year we see if tis core group can do anything. If they make the playoffs or come close, then we should go all in for the next two years. If we miss badly this year, it is time to sell off and start over.

“If we come close or make the playoffs: go all in”. This strategy is atrocious and not fitting of the roster. I’m afraid we already did go “all in” last year, or so it seems. This is us trying to hang in the hand due to being pot committed. We don’t have a roster that is built for waiting a year to add a piece or two that sets us over the top. You do that with a roster full of players at or near their prime. Not a roster chat full of players dropping off a cliff.
The “core” is aging. Quickly.
Votto: 37
Miley: 34
Shogo: 33 shortly after OD
Moose: 32
Gray: 31
Ramirez: 31
Barnhart: 30
Castellanos: 29

This is a terribly built team to “wait and see”. We badly missed adding to our window by not signing a SS, a starting pitcher and at least a solid setup reliever THIS season. Our only SS is a year or two outside of the window of our current team along with any meaningful SP or relief arm as well. This team is “AS IS” until 2024 and will only get worse.


T

[tripleaaaron]

Mike Trout's last 10 games: .216 Average

What is Trouts last 50 games? That’s more equivalent to a starting pitcher.

[Ash11]

Mike Trout's last 10 games: .216 Average

Over Miley’s last 10 starts he has a -1.2 war

Over his last 20 starts a -2 war

Over trouts last 50 starts he has a 2 war

Over trouts last 100 starts he has a 6 war



I know you’re just trolling. I’ll come back when Wade has a 9 era on April 30th