Make Your 2021 Cincinnati Reds' Win Total Prediction

[*BaseClogger*]

78 wins. The starting pitching is strong at the top of the rotation and has more depth than people realize, but the bullpen and defense are poor. The offense is solid but unspectacular 1 thru 6 in the batting order while shortstop and catcher are black holes...

[Falls City Beer]

70 wins. It’s a terrible lineup and weaker starting staff than last year’s. Nowhere to go but backwards.

And defense is one of the worst this team has trotted out. Probably a fourth place finish.

[KronoRed]

Barely above .500 last year and nothing has gotten better.

[REDREAD]

The loss of Bauer hurts more than people realize, 74 wins and another losing season.

That's where I'm at too. Loss of Bauer. Lack of bullpen depth (the effective guys will be worn out by July). The only hopes the offense has is that Stephenson becomes a starter and meets his potential and/or Senzel takes a step forward. The vets are all another year older. Loss of DH hurts the Reds as much as anyone else in the NL. Defense gets worse with Winker in LF.

Castillo had a fantastic year last season, he's going to have to repeat it. There's some upside if Gray can return to 2019 form. Mahle has some upside. Bottom of the rotation is likely a mess. Miley is likely to lose a lot of games before he's removed from the rotation (assuming he's put there). I can understand why the Reds are putting Lorenzen in the rotation, but he's likely to have a steep learning curve this year and be inconsistent (which I guess will help whoever signs him as a FA after this season).
I know people hate W-L to measure pitchers, but I doubt Lorenzen posts a .500 record, due to his inexperience as as starter and the rest of the team behind him.

74-76 wins sounds about right to me. 3rd or 4th in the NL Central.

Edit: Some upside in Suarez too. Hopefully his injury depressed his numbers last year.

[mth123]

76 wins. The defense will let too many runs in and wear out the pitching staff. The offense has too many up and down all or nothing hitters. The team has good arms throughout but too many unprovens in the pen, an iffy back of the rotation and the defense is going to run up the pitch count on the main guys with too many innings being left to secondary guys. With this defense, this staff is going to need to average over 10 Ks per 9 innings to have a chance IMO and their 2 best strike-out guys from last year, Bauer and Iglesias, are both gone.

My beacon of hope is Suarez slimmer, more mobile look and a hope that Nick Senzel steps forward. Those guys could move this team into the 80 to 82 range, but unless expanded play-offs are implemented, I see this team as a seller in July.

Quoting myself to add another comment. If Brandon Finnegan returns from the dead and can quickly establish himslef as a reliable late inning guy, that could change some things. Somebody needs to emerge as the go to guy at the end of the game to establish some order in this pen. I always believed that late inning reliever was Finnegan's eventual role. Maybe he'll be that come out of nowhere guy that good teams usually seem to have show up.

[JaxRed]

I went 86-88. Rotation looks to be very strong. Bullpen looks to be very strong. Lots of pitching depth. The question remains the offense. I'm encouraged by Senzel and Suarez so far. Hoping that Cast and Moose bounce back. We need to avoid a total breakdown by Votto.

[UPRedsFan]

86
It's a weak division. The offense will be better: Senzel, Shogo, Moose, Suarez, Castellanos will all be better. Catcher will be better with Stephenson.

Bauer and Iglesius are gone. But I think the pitching levels out with more of Antone, another year of advancement for Mahle. Lorenzen and Miley are good for 3 or 4 innings as a tandem. A deep bullpen with lots of left hand options now. And maybe just maybe this Finnegan guy can be dominant in the late innings with Sims and Garrett.

[REDREAD]

I went 86-88. Rotation looks to be very strong. Bullpen looks to be very strong. Lots of pitching depth. The question remains the offense. I'm encouraged by Senzel and Suarez so far. Hoping that Cast and Moose bounce back. We need to avoid a total breakdown by Votto.

I'm not sure how Moose can bounce back though, because he was good last year.
Moose OPSed 799 last year. His career OPS is 754. It was one of his better years in his recent history (The most recent years he did better were 2019 and 2017).
Castanallos could be better. He had a great first half and then really faded. Could go either way.. He could get back to his 850 OPS self.. yes, there is potential there. He's only 29 too.
Hopefully Senzel and Suarez are better.

[jup]

Tough crowd with all the predictions under 500.

I got a 500 ballclub. Offense will be better but the starting pitching will definitely drop off. Not just because the loss of Bauer's inning directly, but because of the competitiveness and grit he brings to a staff that infects others.

The Reds lost more games last year because they couldn't hit at the right time. So the regression in the starting staff should easily be covered by the offense. Law of averages says you are not going to have everyone have a terrible year hitting on a timely basis like last year. Just didn't hit in key spots (runners in scoring position). That should be where the offense actually sees improvement this year. Even a blind squirrel finds a few nuts and I suspect the Reds hitters will also.

[herbdizzle]

87 wins.

Castillo, Gray, Mahle, & Antone are 4 really legit starters 1-4. I think Tejay is for real and Mahle will produce a full season of what he did last year. Bullpen will be stronger than anticipated with the addition of Deleon, C. Perez, Bedrosian & Finnegan.

Stephenson will eventually become the primary C starter by the All-Star Break. Senzel & India provide some needed youth. Farmer & Blandino hold SS down until Garcia comes up. I like this team's chances in the Central. They're a step behind the Cardinals as of today but a couple breakouts from young guys can even things out.

[757690]

88 wins.

I think most fans are underestimating the effect of Driveline. This is going to be one killer pitching staff.

[UPRedsFan]

I'm not sure how Moose can bounce back though, because he was good last year.
Moose OPSed 799 last year. His career OPS is 754. It was one of his better years in his recent history (The most recent years he did better were 2019 and 2017).

Moose only played in 75% of the games in 2020. His injuries led to far too many JVM starts at 2b. The offense will improve with a healthy Moose.
The offense will improve with a normal Castellanos and Suarez who aren't going to slump for half the season with a normal 162 game season.

[jup]

88 wins.

I think most fans are underestimating the effect of Driveline. This is going to be one killer pitching staff.

Didn't think about that, but you are right, that will be a contributor.

I look for most of the Driveline effect out in the future a little farther because their charge has been more with the younger guys and minor leaguers. However, they will definitely have some impact on the pitch quality at the big league level, and will definitely give some of those guys a little boost in the effectiveness of, or revamping of their repertoire.

But I really like your optimism and enthusiasm for the pitching side of things.

[TexasRedsFan]

76.

Too many questions after last year's lack of offensive chemistry, the loss of Bauer and the lack of re-investment in the team to have more confidence than that. Not to mention David Bell is still calling the shots and they won't have the DH.

[TexasRedsFan]

My beacon of hope is Suarez slimmer, more mobile look and a hope that Nick Senzel steps forward. Those guys could move this team into the 80 to 82 range, but unless expanded play-offs are implemented, I see this team as a seller in July.

I agree with you that Senzel and Suarez are the two wildcards who will most determine how good this offense is. We pretty much know what to expect from the other guys (except maybe Shogo due to lack of MLB experience).