Texas, Florida and NY. A closer look at 3 states for COVID

[Todd Gack]

The Mayor and city council of the biggest city in SD (Sioux Falls) implemented a mask mandate (city ordinance actually) on November 20th. That supplemented mask mandates already in place at the largest retailers and shopping centers (Seriously, you should see what Hot Topic will do if someone doesn't wear a mask properly. It's great.). The vaccine distribution system, driven by the two largest health care providers, piled on top to produce a far more rapid decrease in cases than what we would have expected given the state government's backwards and dangerous handling/non-handling of the pandemic.

If there are "good jobs" to be handed out, they would go to the top health care providers, big box retailers/shopping centers, and smaller cities (like Brookings) who had the foresight to implement protection mandates sooner versus later.

But to be clear, there was no reason the death toll should have spiked as it did. It should never, ever have had to get that bad to terrify people into taking a pandemic seriously (which is what happened- along with a LOT of really bad national press). That was a Covid denialist nightmare scenario; a real-life example of how ignorance, denialism, and inaction costs lives.

There are very few "denialists." There are many "WTF is the big dealios"

[SteelSD]

Yeah. ND and SD botched this thing for the longest time.

I guess what I really find interesting to see it that cases and deaths CAN bottom out which gives tremendous me hope.

Again, this was a result of great vaccination strategy x horrible social distancing/no masks last year.

Low density rural states have no business being the 10th ranked state in per capita deaths. I’ll allow that their ranks are falling - I do wonder how far.

That's the thing, kal. The cases haven't really bottomed out. It only appears that way because the spike was so severe. SD currently is reporting @22% of it's 16-and-older population fully vaccinated and there were still 316 cases reported yesterday- many multiples of the pre-August counts.

- - - Updated - - -

There are very few "denialists." There are many "WTF is the big dealios"

A vacuum can call itself a leaf blower, but the reality is that it still just sucks.

[RiverRat13]

South Dakota was already on the decline by November 20:

https://covid19-projections.com/infections/us-sd

I think when the dust settles, masks will be one of those things that falls in the middle of what both sides think they do. Masks can't prevent the virus from rising and they aren't the reason the numbers fall, but they can make a difference on just how high the peak turns out to be.

[SteelSD]

South Dakota was already on the decline by November 20:

I'm not sure why you think that matters.

I think when the dust settles, masks will be one of those things that falls in the middle of what both sides think they do. Masks can't prevent the virus from rising and they aren't the reason the numbers fall, but they can make a difference on just how high the peak turns out to be.

That makes no sense.

[JaxRed]

7 Day Average

Texas (Population 29M)
Mar 10th - 4,889
Mar 11th - 4,709
Mar 12th - 4,652
Mar 13th - 4,547
Mar 14th - 4,456
Mar 15th - 4,604
Mar 16th - 4,593
Mar 17th - 4,550
Mar 18th - 4,176
Mar 19th - 3,984
Mar 20th - 3,902

Florida (Population 21M)
Mar 10th - 4,853
Mar 11th - 4,632
Mar 12th - 4,522
Mar 13th - 4,602
Mar 14th - 4,545
Mar 15th - 4,475
Mar 16th - 4,527
Mar 17th - 4,492
Mar 18th - 4,495
Mar 19th - 4,484
Mar 20th - 4,465

New York (Population 19M)
Mar 10th - 7,307
Mar 11th - 7,190
Mar 12th - 7,198
Mar 13th - 7,044
Mar 14th - 6,944
Mar 15th - 7,033
Mar 16th - 6,933
Mar 17th - 7,300
Mar 18th - 7,475
Mar 19th - 7,345
Mar 20th - 7,488


Early results -
10 Days out from No-Mask Mandate - Cases down in Texas
Spring Break in Florida - Cases still coming down
NY - Cases went down but are now up.

[RiverRat13]

I'm not sure why you think that matters.



That makes no sense.

You're trying to credit the mask mandate for ending the SD rise. Cases were well on their way down before the mandate. Not sure how that is difficult to follow.

As far as the second statement, take Minnesota. Both SD and Minn had the bell curve of cases in the fall that we've seen pretty much everywhere. But Minnesota put in more mitigation than SD, so only 27% of its residents ever got it compared to 47% of SD. Minnesota has had a mask mandate since July. So the mask mandate didn't prevent Minnesota from having a rise in cases in the fall, but it may well have helped keep the rise going to SD levels.

[Sea Ray]

At what point will the "all hell will break loose" crowd admit that they were wrong about throwing a fit when Gov Abbott announced a return to businesses being open 100% with no state issued mask mandate?

[JaxRed]

At what point will the "all hell will break loose" crowd admit that they were wrong about throwing a fit when Gov Abbott announced a return to businesses being open 100% with no state issued mask mandate?

Well certainly not yet. Only been about 10 days. You can start making an argument at maybe 20.

[RiverRat13]

Iowa lifted its mandate 6 weeks ago. No rise in cases. I still think it is too soon to spike the football, though.

[SteelSD]

You're trying to credit the mask mandate for ending the SD rise. Cases were well on their way down before the mandate. Not sure how that is difficult to follow.

You'll maybe need to go read my post again for content. I'm stating that the mask ordinance was a major contributing factor to speeding up the drop in infection rates. It was implemented too late, but did save lives once in place. I'm on the ground here. I know a bit about the environment both before and after that spike.

As far as the second statement, take Minnesota. Both SD and Minn had the bell curve of cases in the fall that we've seen pretty much everywhere. But Minnesota put in more mitigation than SD, so only 27% of its residents ever got it compared to 47% of SD. Minnesota has had a mask mandate since July. So the mask mandate didn't prevent Minnesota from having a rise in cases in the fall, but it may well have helped keep the rise going to SD levels.

So, Minnesota had a mask mandate prior to a less precipitous spike versus a state with no mask mandate. Lets ignore that you're comparing two dissimilar environments. In isolation, if your mitigation theory is true, then it means that masks actually aid in the prevention of spread, which reduces the severity of outbreaks when they occur, and assists in decreasing infection rates more quickly than without masking up.

Is that what you meant? If so, I'm not sure why you'd take issue with me stating that a mask ordinance contributed to a drop in cases.

[757690]

The major issue with lifting the mask mandate is not a rise in cases, as most businesses are still requiring masks. The issue that these businesses now have it harder to enforce their own mandates.

With a state ordered mandate, the businesses could claim they are just following state regulations. Without it, customers can blame the businesses for taking away their freedoms. We have already seen a Jack in the Box manager in Texas stabbed for trying to enforce a mask mandate.

https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/mana...uspect-on-run/

[RiverRat13]

In isolation, if your mitigation theory is true, then it means that masks actually aid in the prevention of spread, which reduces the severity of outbreaks when they occur, and assists in decreasing infection rates more quickly than without masking up.

Is that what you meant? If so, I'm not sure why you'd take issue with me stating that a mask ordinance contributed to a drop in cases.

Yes, that is what I meant. But if you look at the link I provided, the mandate was too late to make any appreciable difference in SD's case.

So going back to my original statement that you disagreed with, masks help, especially in mitigating a population's rise in cases. But they don't prevent the rise nor are they the reason the virus retreats.

[SteelSD]

Yes, that is what I meant. But if you look at the link I provided, the mandate was too late to make any appreciable difference in SD's case.

If if you meant, "...then it means that masks actually aid in the prevention of spread, which reduces the severity of outbreaks when they occur, and assists in decreasing infection rates more quickly than without masking up." then your second sentence in the quote above cannot be true. I'm not sure why you're having difficulty understanding that, other than the fact that you've actually countered your own position. Thank you.

So going back to my original statement that you disagreed with, masks help, especially in mitigating a population's rise in cases. But they don't prevent the rise nor are they the reason the virus retreats.

I've made no claim that, by themselves, masks have or are going to prevent 100% of cases. If that's your standard, you've attempted to set up and carry out a fallacious debate.

[Sea Ray]

Well certainly not yet. Only been about 10 days. You can start making an argument at maybe 20.

Absolutely. It's a fluid situation that should be monitored

[Sea Ray]

The major issue with lifting the mask mandate is not a rise in cases, as most businesses are still requiring masks. The issue that these businesses now have it harder to enforce their own mandates.

With a state ordered mandate, the businesses could claim they are just following state regulations. Without it, customers can blame the businesses for taking away their freedoms. We have already seen a Jack in the Box manager in Texas stabbed for trying to enforce a mask mandate.

https://www.kxan.com/news/crime/mana...uspect-on-run/

It should be up to the business to decide what's right for his private property and not a politician