I really wouldn't obsess over defensive metrics. They're soooo noisy, and really only useful in retrospect (which some would argue means they are not useful at all).
I really wouldn't obsess over defensive metrics. They're soooo noisy, and really only useful in retrospect (which some would argue means they are not useful at all).
757690 (04-17-2021),HammerTime (04-17-2021),M2 (04-17-2021)
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
757690 (04-17-2021)
No, I will continue to use them, knowing that all defensive metrics are noisy and have extremely high error margins. As the Reds are revealing this year.
DER is too simplistic, not much different from fielding percentage, which no one uses. UZR is waaaaaay to complex and hypothetical, making way too many assumptions. I do like DRS. It's basically the eye test, but for every play and put into numbers. I've used it with satisfying results for years.
Anyway, anyone watching can see the Reds have been bad at defense this year, but have been able to out slug it. They are averaging 6.5 runs a game. If they can keep that up (spoiler alert, they can't) they can hide the bad defense. When that comes back to earth, I expect the losses to build up. Hopefully, the defense gets better by then.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
That's why it's good. Measures one thing: how many balls in play did you field? Achieves large numbers quickly. The top defenses in the league always rank high in DER. If your DER is good, your overall defense is good. Won't dice up what's underneath worth squat. Doesn't purport to do that. Only gives you the big picture. It's the runs scored of defense.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Looking at any defensive metrics on April 17th is like taking something you read on the bathroom wall as gospel. Numbers are meaningless at this point. It takes years for those numbers to become meaningful.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
757690 (04-18-2021),HammerTime (04-18-2021)
mth123 (04-18-2021),Ron Madden (04-18-2021)
Interesting development:
Bo Bichette, for whom Reds target Marcus Semien was moved off SS, has surpassed Geno for lowest OAA with a -7 (Suarez is at -6). Sitting at -5 is Reds target Didi Gregorius
HammerTime (04-24-2021),Kingspoint (04-24-2021)
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