I'm not missing Shogo

[Kc61]

This is his claim.

What happens to that cash reserve if the pandemic eases?

If the owners get it, we'll know he was full of crap.

And I’m not excusing the Reds for their overall unwillingness or inability to do what it takes to become serious contenders.

But it does seem they were totally blind-sided by the pandemic coming immediately after their first big FA deals in years.

Whether the owners will loosen the reigns once the pandemic passes, nobody knows, and I understand fans’ skepticism.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Whether the owners will loosen the reigns once the pandemic passes, nobody knows, and I understand fans’ skepticism.

I wasn't clear-- I was agreeing with you (at least in part). I was merely trying to explain that we need a bit of patience in determining the truthfulness of his claim. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

[Mitri]

This is his claim.

What happens to that cash reserve if the pandemic eases?

If the owners get it, we'll know he was full of crap.

2021 and 2022 are going to be rough years for a lot of entertainment businesses. The pandemic could fully disappear tomorrow and it wouldn't change the economic reality of our situation here in the U.S. There are a lot of jobs that will never come back, or will take years to get back. I'm not defending Reds ownership for cutting back payroll this year, just pointing out that the comparative revenue lost from last year's lost season, this season and likely 2022 is what will be driving many of the decisions of small to mid-market teams like Cincinnati. It's just reality.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Bob was very clear in his interview this week. The cuts are to create a “reserve” against uncertainty for 2021 due to COVID.

I agree the Reds have been cheap, but they didn’t spend in 2019-20 anticipating deep cuts in 2021. Why would they do that? These were all multi-year contracts.

This time Reds were victimized by bad luck, unfortunate timing. That they are less able than other teams to withstand it is another issue.

I respect your decision to take Bob at his word. I just don't. They need to give me more than 1 year of action

I'm happy to be wrong, that's just where I'm at.

[757690]

The Reds ownership has been historically cheap. I apologize if I just don't buy the pandemic being the reason for cost cutting

The current ownership has been schizophrenic when it comes to spending. When they bought the team, the started spending, were committed to winning, and it paid off in 2010-2013. They then spent even more, locking up their best players on expensive, long term deals. Then in 2016, they slashed payroll and were committed to tanking. Then in 2019, they started spending again, and before the 2020 season, spent aggressively. Now they are cutting back.

So I understand your skepticism concerning the Reds spending, but it’s not because they are historically cheap, it’s because they are inconsistent about it.

[Bourgeois Zee]

2021 and 2022 are going to be rough years for a lot of entertainment businesses.

We'll see.

I suspect they'll be boom times and that any business that was able to stay solvent through the pandemic will reap massive rewards as soon as this summer. $1.9 trillion-- most of it in the hands of regular folks-- is a step in that direction. People are going to want to go out-- that'll drive economic opportunity. So will small business loans and help from the stimulus signed a couple of weeks ago.

[Griffey012]

I mean, seriously. If you had a choice of Shogo or 7 million to improve this team any way that you wanted to, would you pick Shogo?
That's a good litmus test.

You said Shogo was clearly a mistake. Yet your litmus test is ignoring all of the unforeseen circumstances that have occurred since we signed him. To answer your question, right now I would rather have the $7M instead of Shogo. But right now we know there was a global pandemic and a 50 game season that happened after the Shogo signing, and now the Reds are trimming their budget as a result.

Shogo carried a .357 OBP in a limited season and had a great final month, it is just too soon to tell what he is as a player and if he is worth the contract he was signed for. If he had flopped in a full season with no power and no OBP, we could conclude the signing was clearly a mistake because he just isn't good as a player, but we don't know that yet. He was 0.5-0.8 wins in a 3rd of a season depending on fWAR or bWAR, that pegs him as a decent big leaguer.

If the plan all along, pandemic or not, was to limit the budget in 2021, then yeah signing Shogo was dumb, but I don't think that was really ever the plan.

[Kc61]

Last season with the Reds, Shogo had an 18.6% K rate and a 13.6% BB rate.

These numbers alone make him an attribute to the team.

I’d prefer Shogo to the other fourth outfielder candidates on the Reds, guys like Aquino, Naquin, Payton.

[Bob Sheed]

dp

[RedTeamGo!]

The problem is that Shogo is not very good AND expensive.
Van Meter was a bad player, but he was on a non guaranteed contract, making minimum salary. So yea, he did not perform (he was worse than Shogo), but he didn't cause a financial pinch. Was he a guy to upgrade from? Of course.
That's the flaw in your logic. If Shogo was a solid #4 OF like Michael Tucker was, people might be unhappy about his salary, but they would be happy about his performance.

Some of us aren’t ready to call Shogo a bust because of 2 months of baseball. You do you, though.

[MoneyInTheBank]

The current ownership has been schizophrenic when it comes to spending. When they bought the team, the started spending, were committed to winning, and it paid off in 2010-2013. They then spent even more, locking up their best players on expensive, long term deals. Then in 2016, they slashed payroll and were committed to tanking. Then in 2019, they started spending again, and before the 2020 season, spent aggressively. Now they are cutting back.

So I understand your skepticism concerning the Reds spending, but it’s not because they are historically cheap, it’s because they are inconsistent about it.

Call it what you want but I seem to remember they funded those teams with the savings from not spending money for years, then rebuilt and cried poor ever since as it has been a push/pull of "fans need to come to the ballpark so we can afford a winner" and "build a winner and we'll come to the ballpark". I'm probably still just bitter that they never went all in when they had the chance. Instead they just waited on Ryan Ludwick to return from injury instead of upgrading the roster.

[dfs]

I'm probably still just bitter that they never went all in when they had the chance. Instead they just waited on Ryan Ludwick to return from injury instead of upgrading the roster.

What's really embarrassing is that it's been 8 years since then and last year's asterisk season is as close as this team has been to a world series.

[wally post]

With Castellanos and Senzel hitting and Winker as our LH hitting left fielder, I find myself not concerned about Shogo being out. He's almost reduced to a defensive replacement role (for me). After we lobbied so much for our first Japanese player it would not look good to trade him.

If Cast has good season and opts out we might need him next year. Expensive back up plan.

This a great thread - only on Redszone. Thanks JaxRed

[REDREAD]

You said Shogo was clearly a mistake. Yet your litmus test is ignoring all of the unforeseen circumstances that have occurred since we signed him. To answer your question, right now I would rather have the $7M instead of Shogo. But right now we know there was a global pandemic and a 50 game season that happened after the Shogo signing, and now the Reds are trimming their budget as a result.

Shogo carried a .357 OBP in a limited season and had a great final month, it is just too soon to tell what he is as a player and if he is worth the contract he was signed for. If he had flopped in a full season with no power and no OBP, we could conclude the signing was clearly a mistake because he just isn't good as a player, but we don't know that yet. He was 0.5-0.8 wins in a 3rd of a season depending on fWAR or bWAR, that pegs him as a decent big leaguer.

If the plan all along, pandemic or not, was to limit the budget in 2021, then yeah signing Shogo was dumb, but I don't think that was really ever the plan.

If he can maintain that 357 OBP (which his supporters are claiming), then at least it won't be a disaster. I'm just skeptical that he'll be able to maintain that due to his lack of power. His slugging was 297 last year. About half his walks in his last month surge were against the Pirates (I counted it in an other post, I think it was one walk short of 1/2, but I don't remember exactly).

Just as a comparison to some other fleas we've had, to show how bad a 297 slugging is:

Billy H has a 325 career slugging
Tavares has a 327 career slugging
Peraza has a 372 career slugging.

If he finds a way to add power this season, I would be more optimistic. I am guessing that doesn't happen though. Pitchers are going to challenge him this year (well, the Pirates are going to be awful, he'll get a lot of walks off them)

[Ron Madden]

It was a 60 game season where he played 54 games and had 155 AB's