I'm not missing Shogo

[Griffey012]

If he can maintain that 357 OBP (which his supporters are claiming), then at least it won't be a disaster. I'm just skeptical that he'll be able to maintain that due to his lack of power. His slugging was 297 last year. About half his walks in his last month surge were against the Pirates (I counted it in an other post, I think it was one walk short of 1/2, but I don't remember exactly).

Just as a comparison to some other fleas we've had, to show how bad a 297 slugging is:

Billy H has a 325 career slugging
Tavares has a 327 career slugging
Peraza has a 372 career slugging.

If he finds a way to add power this season, I would be more optimistic. I am guessing that doesn't happen though. Pitchers are going to challenge him this year (well, the Pirates are going to be awful, he'll get a lot of walks off them)

Shogo hit 20+ HR’s his last 3 seasons in Japan. He hit like those three in 2020 but none of those three sans maybe Peraza could ever hit 20 HRs in a season in Japan. He’s not exactly a flea.

[Old school 1983]

And I’m not excusing the Reds for their overall unwillingness or inability to do what it takes to become serious contenders.

But it does seem they were totally blind-sided by the pandemic coming immediately after their first big FA deals in years.

Whether the owners will loosen the reigns once the pandemic passes, nobody knows, and I understand fans’ skepticism.

If he can maintain that 357 OBP (which his supporters are claiming), then at least it won't be a disaster. I'm just skeptical that he'll be able to maintain that due to his lack of power. His slugging was 297 last year. About half his walks in his last month surge were against the Pirates (I counted it in an other post, I think it was one walk short of 1/2, but I don't remember exactly).

Just as a comparison to some other fleas we've had, to show how bad a 297 slugging is:

Billy H has a 325 career slugging
Tavares has a 327 career slugging
Peraza has a 372 career slugging.

If he finds a way to add power this season, I would be more optimistic. I am guessing that doesn't happen though. Pitchers are going to challenge him this year (well, the Pirates are going to be awful, he'll get a lot of walks off them)

The whole he did it against the Pirates thing is kinda weak. The Reds played a tough schedule in that streak outside of Pittsburgh. And it wasn’t like Shogo was playing the Pirates and everyone else was playing a better team. You count all his stats or you count none of them. Every other team will get fat against Pittsburgh too. I’d imagine for the early part of the season, the Central standings will reflect more who recently played the Pirates the most moreso than true talent. Yes...his slugging needs to increase, but he showed a great batters eye and contact ability against teams not named the Pirates after adjusting to the speed of MLB. I expect him to be a fine addition to the team as he was down the stretch last year.

[Chip R]

Well, I'm sure Senzel and Winker will stay healthy all season so who needs Shogo?

[Ron Madden]

The whole he did it against the Pirates thing is kinda weak.

I agree with Old School 1983, Count all the stats or none at all.

In addition to playing the Pirates 8 times in the last 30 games
The Reds also played
Cubs 7 times
The Cardinals 6 times
The Brewers 3 times
The White Sox 3 times
The Twins 3 times

[Kingspoint]

I'm missing Shogo.

I have this funny thing about guys who play good defense and get on base better than others, especially on a team that struggles in both areas.

[REDREAD]

The whole he did it against the Pirates thing is kinda weak. The Reds played a tough schedule in that streak outside of Pittsburgh.

I am going to show my work again.
People are excited about Shogo based on how he finished the season with a strong OBP. At least that's my assumption.

Here's Shogo's stats for September.

Here's Shogo's stats in the first series against the Pirates in Sept:


Here's Shogo's stats in the second series against the Pirates in Sept:


So entire month of September, 79 PA, 63 AB, 15 BB, 20 hits: good for a 456 OBP.
The first series against the Pirates: 7 PA, 5AB, 2BB, 1 hit
The second series against the Pirates: 15 PA, 10 AB, 5BB, 4 hits.
Total Pirate September numbers: 22 PA, 15AB, 7 BB, 5 hits.
September, not playing the Pirates: 57 PA, 48AB, 8 BB, 15 hits: that's a 403 OBP, which is still good, but
it's September numbers. The point is, the Pirates were a tanking team that inflated his numbers.
Now I know people are going to respond and say a 403 OBP in the remaining 15 games (plus the 8 Pirate games) are cause for optimism.. It's fine to have that opinion.

He had a 365 slugging in Sept, which primarily driven by his 317 batting average. Obviously that's a lot better than he did the rest of the season. The question is.. Can he consistently be a 317 hitter to keep that slugging up? His career average in Japan was 304. Three of the 9 seasons he was in Japan, he hit 317 or better (322, 323, 359).. He's 32 now. It's possible, and I hope he pulls it off. If he can maintain that 317 batting average, I will be very happy, because then at least there's hope he can keep his walk rate high. He's not going to hit for a lot of power, most likely, so batting average is pretty critical for him.. All this is "in my opinion" of course.

[Ron Madden]

I am going to show my work again.
People are excited about Shogo based on how he finished the season with a strong OBP. At least that's my assumption.

Here's Shogo's stats for September.

Here's Shogo's stats in the first series against the Pirates in Sept:


Here's Shogo's stats in the second series against the Pirates in Sept:


So entire month of September, 79 PA, 63 AB, 15 BB, 20 hits: good for a 456 OBP.
The first series against the Pirates: 7 PA, 5AB, 2BB, 1 hit
The second series against the Pirates: 15 PA, 10 AB, 5BB, 4 hits.
Total Pirate September numbers: 22 PA, 15AB, 7 BB, 5 hits.
September, not playing the Pirates: 57 PA, 48AB, 8 BB, 15 hits: that's a 403 OBP, which is still good, but
it's September numbers. The point is, the Pirates were a tanking team that inflated his numbers.
Now I know people are going to respond and say a 403 OBP in the remaining 15 games (plus the 8 Pirate games) are cause for optimism.. It's fine to have that opinion.

He had a 365 slugging in Sept, which primarily driven by his 317 batting average. Obviously that's a lot better than he did the rest of the season. The question is.. Can he consistently be a 317 hitter to keep that slugging up? His career average in Japan was 304. Three of the 9 seasons he was in Japan, he hit 317 or better (322, 323, 359).. He's 32 now. It's possible, and I hope he pulls it off. If he can maintain that 317 batting average, I will be very happy, because then at least there's hope he can keep his walk rate high. He's not going to hit for a lot of power, most likely, so batting average is pretty critical for him.. All this is "in my opinion" of course.

And every team the Reds played in their last 30 games other than the Pirates and 3 vs the Brewers were playoff teams.

It really doesn't change the fact that all stats vs all teams are and should be counted.

[bing]

I dont think the reds make the playoffs last year without his productivity. So ill gladly have him in the lineup often.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I am going to show my work again.
People are excited about Shogo based on how he finished the season with a strong OBP. At least that's my assumption.

Here's Shogo's stats for September.

Here's Shogo's stats in the first series against the Pirates in Sept:


Here's Shogo's stats in the second series against the Pirates in Sept:


So entire month of September, 79 PA, 63 AB, 15 BB, 20 hits: good for a 456 OBP.
The first series against the Pirates: 7 PA, 5AB, 2BB, 1 hit
The second series against the Pirates: 15 PA, 10 AB, 5BB, 4 hits.
Total Pirate September numbers: 22 PA, 15AB, 7 BB, 5 hits.
September, not playing the Pirates: 57 PA, 48AB, 8 BB, 15 hits: that's a 403 OBP, which is still good, but
it's September numbers. The point is, the Pirates were a tanking team that inflated his numbers.
Now I know people are going to respond and say a 403 OBP in the remaining 15 games (plus the 8 Pirate games) are cause for optimism.. It's fine to have that opinion.

He had a 365 slugging in Sept, which primarily driven by his 317 batting average. Obviously that's a lot better than he did the rest of the season. The question is.. Can he consistently be a 317 hitter to keep that slugging up? His career average in Japan was 304. Three of the 9 seasons he was in Japan, he hit 317 or better (322, 323, 359).. He's 32 now. It's possible, and I hope he pulls it off. If he can maintain that 317 batting average, I will be very happy, because then at least there's hope he can keep his walk rate high. He's not going to hit for a lot of power, most likely, so batting average is pretty critical for him.. All this is "in my opinion" of course.

I don't know, I feel like you have a pretty good case if you were coming from a place of "I'm not sold on Shogo yet" but when you are coming from a place of "Shogo is a flea" and "he's not very good" the argument falls short.

Did he hit better against the Pirates than the other teams? Yes, but isn't that what you are supposed to do?

Was it September? Yes, but this wasn't your typical "play out the string" expanded rosters September. This was 43% of his PAs for the year

"He only slugged so much in September because he got so many hits". We are in agreement on this one

[JFLegal]

Shogo hit 20+ HR’s his last 3 seasons in Japan. He hit like those three in 2020 but none of those three sans maybe Peraza could ever hit 20 HRs in a season in Japan. He’s not exactly a flea.

the pro league in japan is like AAA ball at best. it's why you see guys who can't cut it in MLB do great in the NPB.

i wouldn't be surprised at all to see a guy like peraza match shogo's stats in japan.

[Griffey012]

the pro league in japan is like AAA ball at best. it's why you see guys who can't cut it in MLB do great in the NPB.

i wouldn't be surprised at all to see a guy like peraza match shogo's stats in japan.

I wouldn't either, Peraza has actually hit for some power in his career. But a Wily Taveras or Billy Hamilton type isn't going to Japan or AAA/AA and hitting 20 home runs consistently.

If Shogo can carry Peraza's .102 career ISO, that is all we need for him to be a pretty productive player.

[JFLegal]

I wouldn't either, Peraza has actually hit for some power in his career. But a Wily Taveras or Billy Hamilton type isn't going to Japan or AAA/AA and hitting 20 home runs consistently.

If Shogo can carry Peraza's .102 career ISO, that is all we need for him to be a pretty productive player.

yeah, i know we are talking about fleas here and what they could do in japan (or have already done in shogo's case) but there are so many other examples of why the japanese league is basically AAA baseball. our very own wily mo pena could never cut it in MLB; goes over to japan and becomes a superstar. and that is just one of many examples.

shogo did adjust a bit to the velocity of big-league pitchers toward the end of the 60-game sprint of a season, so there is hope. but the fact remains he made his living over in japan beating up on mediocre pitchers for the most part. and shogo had some pop in his bat in japan. first time in his life he sees elite pitching, he becomes a 100% flea who has no pop. funny how that happens when you go from AAA to the show.

[Old school 1983]

I am going to show my work again.
People are excited about Shogo based on how he finished the season with a strong OBP. At least that's my assumption.

Here's Shogo's stats for September.

Here's Shogo's stats in the first series against the Pirates in Sept:


Here's Shogo's stats in the second series against the Pirates in Sept:


So entire month of September, 79 PA, 63 AB, 15 BB, 20 hits: good for a 456 OBP.
The first series against the Pirates: 7 PA, 5AB, 2BB, 1 hit
The second series against the Pirates: 15 PA, 10 AB, 5BB, 4 hits.
Total Pirate September numbers: 22 PA, 15AB, 7 BB, 5 hits.
September, not playing the Pirates: 57 PA, 48AB, 8 BB, 15 hits: that's a 403 OBP, which is still good, but
it's September numbers. The point is, the Pirates were a tanking team that inflated his numbers.
Now I know people are going to respond and say a 403 OBP in the remaining 15 games (plus the 8 Pirate games) are cause for optimism.. It's fine to have that opinion.

He had a 365 slugging in Sept, which primarily driven by his 317 batting average. Obviously that's a lot better than he did the rest of the season. The question is.. Can he consistently be a 317 hitter to keep that slugging up? His career average in Japan was 304. Three of the 9 seasons he was in Japan, he hit 317 or better (322, 323, 359).. He's 32 now. It's possible, and I hope he pulls it off. If he can maintain that 317 batting average, I will be very happy, because then at least there's hope he can keep his walk rate high. He's not going to hit for a lot of power, most likely, so batting average is pretty critical for him.. All this is "in my opinion" of course.

Shogo is a contact hitter. Of course his OBP will be attached to his average. And .403 versus all other teams just isn’t good...it’s excellent. Even if his BA drops 50 points in that period it’s around a 350 obp which is very good. He had some issues catching up to the the speed of the MLB game to start the season. After that, he looked like a very solid player. Would I like to see some more power...totally...but outside of him, the reds are a power team. They need dudes that get on. If he’s up late in game in a spot where you need a homer, they have pinch hitters.

Overall, I’m not really sure what the point is...he’s not as good overall as he was during a hot streak....no player is. He’s likely not as good as his hot streak....but he’s likely not as bad as he was to start the year when he was adjusting to the league.

[REDREAD]

Shogo is a contact hitter. Of course his OBP will be attached to his average. And .403 versus all other teams just isn’t good...it’s excellent. Even if his BA drops 50 points in that period it’s around a 350 obp which is very good.

Yes, I agree that a 403 OBP is good. Sorry if I was not clear about that.
My point about batting average was.. Since he has no power (at least not yet) in MLB, he needs a high BA to maintain his slugging. For him to hit 317 over an entire season will be challenging. Not impossible, but challenging. Just another reason why I am not optimistic.

Typically players with a low slugging take a hit on their OBP because MLB simply avoid walking them. A guy like Castanallos is more likely to be pitched carefully out of respect for his power (a mistake can be a home run). A mistake to a guy like Shogo is probably just a single, there's less risk in just attacking the plate as opposed to nibbling.

[Griffey012]

yeah, i know we are talking about fleas here and what they could do in japan (or have already done in shogo's case) but there are so many other examples of why the japanese league is basically AAA baseball. our very own wily mo pena could never cut it in MLB; goes over to japan and becomes a superstar. and that is just one of many examples.

shogo did adjust a bit to the velocity of big-league pitchers toward the end of the 60-game sprint of a season, so there is hope. but the fact remains he made his living over in japan beating up on mediocre pitchers for the most part. and shogo had some pop in his bat in japan. first time in his life he sees elite pitching, he becomes a 100% flea who has no pop. funny how that happens when you go from AAA to the show.

I agree with you that Japan is below the MLB competition wise, whether it is AAA caliber or AA caliber or something else is a different debate, but I wasn't trying to equate performance in Japan means performance in the MLB. Take Wily Mo Pena who you mentioned, Wily Mo always had massive raw power, it isn't like he went to Japan and suddenly went from being a able to physically hit a baseball 500 ft instead of 400 ft. He feasted on lesser pitching which allowed him to realize that raw power in games.

Shogo at least has shown in Japan that there is some raw power in his bat, a lot more raw power than the fleas Hamilton or Taveras. It is definitely an unknown as to how much of that raw power he can tap into at the MLB level, if he is able too at all. But is also not fair to label him a flea and clearly a mistake signing after not even 200 PA's.