I'm not missing Shogo

[Old school 1983]

Yes, I agree that a 403 OBP is good. Sorry if I was not clear about that.
My point about batting average was.. Since he has no power (at least not yet) in MLB, he needs a high BA to maintain his slugging. For him to hit 317 over an entire season will be challenging. Not impossible, but challenging. Just another reason why I am not optimistic.

Typically players with a low slugging take a hit on their OBP because MLB simply avoid walking them. A guy like Castanallos is more likely to be pitched carefully out of respect for his power (a mistake can be a home run). A mistake to a guy like Shogo is probably just a single, there's less risk in just attacking the plate as opposed to nibbling.

That’s a fair take.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Yes, I agree that a 403 OBP is good. Sorry if I was not clear about that.
My point about batting average was.. Since he has no power (at least not yet) in MLB, he needs a high BA to maintain his slugging. For him to hit 317 over an entire season will be challenging. Not impossible, but challenging. Just another reason why I am not optimistic.

I see what you are saying but we shouldn't count on Shogo hitting 0 home runs every year.

Billy Hamilton's average exit velocity is 81.7 for his career and he owns a 3.1% career HR/FB rate
Kolten Wong's average exit velocity is 86.9 and HR/FB rate is 7.4%
Didi Gregorius is at 85.8 and 10.4%

Shogo had an EV of 85.1, so let's put him at 5%, conservatively (which is still a low number league wide). That would have put him at 2-3 HRs with his 26 fly balls. Let's say 3 fly ball outs carry for HRs, he's now sporting a .374 SLG (and a .264 AVG), which is in line with his projections for next season. That's where his slugging improvement will come from. He won't need to carry a .300+ average

[Chip R]

the pro league in japan is like AAA ball at best. it's why you see guys who can't cut it in MLB do great in the NPB.

i wouldn't be surprised at all to see a guy like peraza match shogo's stats in japan.

Conceding the point that Japan is more or less AAA level, damning Shogo because he had sucess in Japan means you have to damn all minor league players that come up to the Reds.

[mth123]

Conceding the point that Japan is more or less AAA level, damning Shogo because he had sucess in Japan means you have to damn all minor league players that come up to the Reds.

I don't think you have to damn anyone. It just means they are question marks without a big league track record. The difference is locking yourself into 3 years/$21 Million for a question mark vs bringing up a pre-arb guy making $600K with no long term guarantees.

I'm bullish on Shogo but I said it was a lot of money for a question mark from a team that traditionally cries poor at the time and I still think that. This year we've seen how locking in money like that leads to cuts elsewhere.

[HammerTime]

How about now? Much rather see him than the 3 pitiful at bats Aquino gave today.

[757690]

How about now? Much rather see him than the 3 pitiful at bats Aquino gave today.

His first two AB’s were fine. He worked the count, laid off the pitches out of the zone and made contact.

His last one was rather sad, I agree, however.

[HammerTime]

His first two AB’s were fine. He worked the count, laid off the pitches out of the zone and made contact.

His last one was rather sad, I agree, however.

He just looks so clueless on any breaking ball. I dk if the stats back that up but it feels that way.

[Bob Sheed]

He just looks so clueless on any breaking ball. I dk if the stats back that up but it feels that way.

[Griffey012]

His first two AB’s were fine. He worked the count, laid off the pitches out of the zone and made contact.

His last one was rather sad, I agree, however.

He just didn’t look like he was taking good cuts though. He laid off some stuff but I also don’t recall good looking swings that just missed. Plenty of opening day beers were had though so I may be totally wrong.

I’m also mad at nobody for not looking like they could perform at a high level in upper 30’s weather after coming from AZ.

[757690]

He just didn’t look like he was taking good cuts though. He laid off some stuff but I also don’t recall good looking swings that just missed. Plenty of opening day beers were had though so I may be totally wrong.

I’m also mad at nobody for not looking like they could perform at a high level in upper 30’s weather after coming from AZ.

Fair points.

I have felt this about him since last year. He’s not taking the cuts he was taking back in 2019. I think the Reds have hurt him but making him change his approach, and being more timid at the plate. I personally would like this to go back to his 2019 approach, forget about having a high OBP, or cutting down on K’s and be a RH Joey Gallo. I don’t think he’s ever going to cut down on K’s or rise his OBP.

Just my opinion.

[Griffey012]

Fair points.

I have felt this about him since last year. He’s not taking the cuts he was taking back in 2019. I think the Reds have hurt him but making him change his approach, and being more timid at the plate. I personally would like this to go back to his 2019 approach, forget about having a high OBP, or cutting down on K’s and be a RH Joey Gallo. I don’t think he’s ever going to cut down on K’s or rise his OBP.

Just my opinion.

I was thinking the same thing, and I think it’s causing him to miss mistakes. One of his outs today was a ball he should have hit into the upper deck but he was late on a hanger. If he’s gonna be a bench bat, let him be a walking home run who strikes out a lot.

[Old school 1983]

Should have got a live chicken.

[M2]

This thread now has a very John Waite feel to it.

[JaxRed]

Here after Naquin's big night. Bell said they hope to have Shogo back on the field at end of April and have him back in Cincinnati by early to mid-May. I kind of think they are slow walking his injury. For example if they start him playing at the end of the month, and get him here in mid month, then they are using the maximum time allowed for rehab.

Bottom line is that he is needed even less now then when I started the thread. I think they'll take as long as they can because bringing him up forces one of several painful choices

1) DFA Aquino
2) Option Naquin
3) Option Shogo
4) Reduce IF depth by getting rid of Farmer or Blandino
5) Reduce pitchers numbers down to 12.

The "easy" decision is to option Naquin. That decision could be 5 weeks away. The right decision might be to option Shogo.

We'll see. A lot can happen in 5 weeks.

[Larry Schuler]

I honestly forgot Shogo was on the team this week.