Elephant In The Room

[Shoeless Jeff]

There are just so many elephants

Are these African or Asian elephants? There is quite a difference.

[SunDeck]

6 posts in and this thread already has 3 elephants. Maybe the real elephant is how dang crowded the room is with all these elephants in it.

Dude, you've been here for 20+ years. If nothing else, you should know Redszone has not met a room big enough for all its elephants.

[WrongVerb]

[RedsManRick]

Any winning team records a lot of base hits. So as a pre opening day message. I hope the Reds log some base hits. That is all. You win most games with a whole lot of base hits. Good Luck.

Teams that win tend to do most things well. Doing any one thing quite poorly makes winning less likely. I hope the Reds get a whole lot of base hits!

[Big Klu]

Are these African or Asian elephants? There is quite a difference.

As cold as it is today, we're gonna need some mammoths.

[RedsManRick]

Some fun facts about the relationship between a handful of stats and team win totals, 2010-2020 (aggregated):

The percentage of the differences in team win totals that can be explained by the differences in the listed statistic, by itself (aka "R^2")

Offense

• AVG: 4% (no, that's not a typo)
• OBP: 48%
• SLG: 16%
• K%: 10%
• OPS: 28%
• wOBA: 30%
• UBR: 10%
• wRC+: 55%

Pitching & Defense

• K/9: 38%
• BB/9: 30%
• HR/9: 16%
• BABIP: 20%
• DRS: 17%
• UZR: 5%
• FIP: 46%
• xFIP: 47%
• ERA: 53%

In other words, while hits are obviously good, knowing only that a team got a lot of hits tells you almost nothing about how many games they won. By comparison, knowing only that they got on base a lot tells you quite a bit -- as much about how much they won as almost any other single statistic.

[HammerTime]

This is tough to figure. If the offense lives up to its potential this year, it could be almost average. But with the lack of pitching depth, the pitching could fall below average. The defense will certainly be below average. Until proven otherwise, the offense is the elephant, the pitching is a limping horse and the defense is a pig. The relief pitching might also be a pig, which could lead to calls to the pigpen, as well as calls for dismissal of the Doolittle front office.

The offense will be much better than average if everyone played to their potential.

[CaiGuy]

^ Yeah, I actually don't like to think of getting on base as "getting on base." I think of it more as "not getting out."

When you frame it that way, it makes way more sense. What is the pitcher trying to do? He's trying to get you out. And what are you trying to do? Not let him get you out.

The key to winning is getting batters out, and not getting out yourself. The same as the goal for each individual at bat.

[boxseat]

If two batters get a base hit and then the third hits into a double play, that would cancel the hits by the batters. Now the defense only needs to throw to first base to get the final out and the offense leaves a man on base. Batting average is a good place to start, but it is certainly not a panacea.

[foster15]

Actually, avoiding outs is the thing winning teams do.

very false. I've never seen a team win on the road with less outs than their opponents.

[Kc61]

OBP obviously includes base hits.

While BA standing alone, as a statistic, may not correlate to wins, the base hits are important as components of OBP. So yes, as the OP says, it’s a good idea for Reds to get lots of hits this season. Walks too.

Still think pitching is the elephant the room, nevertheless.

[klw]

Reds and Cards both with 10 hits today- it must be a close game.


Defense, or lack thereof, is the elephant in the room.

[CesarGeronimo]

The offense will be much better than average if everyone played to their potential.

I disagree. 27th out of 30 teams in runs scored last year with mostly the same players.I don't see them improving to better than the middle of the pack. Even if they play at their potential this year, there will still be de players who gave good seasons, some who have disappointing seasons and some who get injured.

[Hamilton95]

I disagree. 27th out of 30 teams in runs scored last year with mostly the same players.I don't see them improving to better than the middle of the pack. Even if they play at their potential this year, there will still be de players who gave good seasons, some who have disappointing seasons and some who get injured.

From what I saw today, we had enough base hits to win for once. Unfortunately our Iron man pitching and our average defense fell to below average.

[Hamilton95]

From what I saw today, we had enough base hits to win for once. Unfortunately our Iron man pitching and our average defense fell to below average.

Very good second base defense though. India looks like a complete player.