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Thread: Extension Candidates

  1. #1
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Extension Candidates

    I realized Michael Lorenzen is a FA after this upcoming season and it made me think about if he is an extension candidate or not. Then it made me start thinking of others on the team who are potentially extension candidates.

    Michael Lorenzen: As mentioned Lorenzen will be a FA after this upcoming season. He just turned 29 years old last week, so he will be 30 going into his potential free agency (I know, this made me feel old too). He has had an odd career. I would call it inconsistent. With that said, there are times he has looked fantastic. This is truly a career defining season coming up for Michael. If he wins a starting job and pitches well he will make himself a significant amount of money. If not and he is relegated to the bullpen he is probably looking at some 1 year deals. I think you see what he looks like in ST and early in the year. If he’s looking like a solid MOR starter you throw something like 3 years $20 million at him and see if he bites. As of right now TBD.

    Luis Castillo: Castillo turned 28 in December. He’s very good and there is even room for improvement. He is a free agent in 2024 and just signed for around $4.2 mil in his first year of arb. If I’m the Reds I’m approaching him with a deal right now to buy out the remaining years of his arbitration and extending him through 2025. See if he will bite on something like 5 years at $75 million. Historically I’m not the type of person that hands out extensions to SPs, but I think at that price it would be worth the risk and Luis wouldn’t have to worry about arbitration.

    Tucker Barnhart: Barnhart turned 30 a couple days ago and is a free agent after this upcoming season. Tucker is a GG caliber defensive catcher. He’s a bad hitter. At first glance my instinct is just let his contract play out and let him walk after the season. If the Reds are out of it in July trade him. Teams are always in the market for solid defensive catchers. Tyler Stephenson looks like the real deal to me. I’m trying to come up with a reason to extend him while I type this out and I just can’t do it. For all you Tucker fans out there enjoy this season, likely his last in a Reds uniform until he is inevitably comes back as the manager in 10-15 years.

    Jesse Winker: Da Wink turns 28 in August. He’s had a bit of a slow start to his career but in the first half of 2020 his bat looked MVP-like. He’s a FA after 2023 season. No rush to extend him obviously, but if he is looking good this year and the DH is looking permanent might be a good idea to see if he is interested in buying out his remaining arb years and extending a few more. Maybe something like 5 years $50 million or so?

    I don’t really see any other candidates at this point on the roster. Please feel free to add any you think of.
    Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 01-16-2021 at 09:42 AM.
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    REDREAD (01-17-2021)


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  4. #2
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    Depending on what you think of whether he's turned the corner, Tyler Mahle is a candidate for extension. He'd cost a relative paucity and is likely to provide excess value if they can extend him beyond his free agent years. That's 2024, fwiw, according the baseball-reference.

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    M2 (01-16-2021),REDREAD (01-17-2021),RedTeamGo! (01-16-2021)

  6. #3
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    It's a little different with pitchers. The potential for career ending injury or loss of multiple seasons is higher. LTC's are higher risk for small market teams. Short extensions are possible, but then the player is looking at hitting the open market a year or two later. That might be a difficult sell.

    It pains me to write this, but I think we, as Reds fans, are looking at a lot of pitching turnover. The hope is that the Reds have become adept at developing pitchers.

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    Revering4Blue (04-28-2021)

  8. #4
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    Castillo, Winker that's all for now.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    If you could lock Garett into a team friendly deal - say 3 years and 9-12M with a couple of team options on top of it I'd do it. And then I'd promote the hell out of him in the inner city (very few African Americans still playing the game - need to do a better job promoting the few there are to prevent the sport from dying amongst that demographic).

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    REDREAD (01-17-2021)

  11. #6
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    Lorenzen and Castillo: Yes
    Barnhart: No. Actually I didn't realize that this was Barnhart's last year.

    Winker: Had a nice year last year, but I Would not give him 5 years/50 million. I think he's the type of player that you just go year to year with. Very streaky. If the NL permanently adopts the DH, maybe. I think Winker would have more trade value if he was not signed long term to be honest. Not saying he has to be traded, but he's one of many defensively challenged guys on the team, and one of them should be moved.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  12. #7
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Lorenzen and Castillo: Yes
    Barnhart: No. Actually I didn't realize that this was Barnhart's last year.

    Winker: Had a nice year last year, but I Would not give him 5 years/50 million. I think he's the type of player that you just go year to year with. Very streaky. If the NL permanently adopts the DH, maybe. I think Winker would have more trade value if he was not signed long term to be honest. Not saying he has to be traded, but he's one of many defensively challenged guys on the team, and one of them should be moved.
    Agree, Winker potentially getting an extension hinges on the DH becoming permanent
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    REDREAD (01-17-2021)

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    Re: Extension Candidates

    Barnhart is due to be replaced by Stephenson. A gold glove catcher that hits right handed pitching should have some trade value, but you don't sign 30 year old catchers to contract extensions.

    I would talk to Winker and Lorenzen's agents and see what it would take to keep them around. I would not be afraid to let them go. Lorenzen seems to be a nice kid and all, but as a player he's not anything special. He's a major league relief pitcher and there's value there, but this team can't overpay for 80 innings of non-closing relief.

    I like Winker's skill set, but he's already 28 and you've got him for three more years anyway. By the time he's a free agent, the landscape will have changed quite a bit. No reason to lock that in.

    On the other hand Castillo is exactly the type of player that you want to keep. His skills are not going to age out w/in the next 5 years. Clearly any pitcher is an injury risk, but starting pitchers who can give you 180 innings with an ERA+ of 140 are valuable guys.
    Last edited by dfs; 01-17-2021 at 11:26 AM.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    REDREAD (01-17-2021)

  16. #9
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    One reason I would extend Lorenzen is that I think he can make a decent starting pitcher.
    He sure looked good last season in limited starts. I think he's potentially a solid MOR rotation pitcher.
    I wouldn't give him premium money, but it would be worth exploring.
    Reds are pretty thin on MLB pitching now. He's a quality arm that I would like to keep.
    When guys like Miley can get 2 years/20 million, I don't like the prospects of trying
    to get a FA pitcher.. On the other hand, Lorenzen's agent knows the market, so maybe
    Lorenzen can't be signed to a team friendly deal.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  17. #10
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    Bump.

    Lorenzen: absolutely not. Maybe he will come back on a minor league invite to spring training or 1 year $1 million “show me” deal

    Castillo: I’d hold off for now. I think I would just let his current contract go to completion and let him test FA. Maybe bring him back if he’s worth it. Too risky to extend IMHO.

    Barnhart: I wouldn’t extend him but I would bring him back as the backup to Stephenson.

    Winker: Yep, his bat is real. Top 10 LHB vs RHP in baseball and he’s clearly worked his ass off on sprint speed and his defense is actually improving. Quietly the most underrated player in MLB.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    CarolinaRedleg (04-28-2021),Old school 1983 (04-28-2021),Revering4Blue (04-28-2021)

  19. #11
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    ok, definitely not Lorenzen with his injury issues.

    I would pass on Barnhart too. I don't want him taking time away from Stephenson. Honestly, Barnhart seems like one of these guys that is pretty complacent. One of those guys that just shrugs off losses and waits until the last year of his contract to put the work in and have a good year. Of course, I don't know him, this is all a guess, but guys like that need to be removed, not retained. The budget is likely going to remain tight, I'd rather go cheap on the backup catcher and spend the money elsewhere.

    Winker: I'm afraid it's too late to extend him at a reasonable rate. I don't know if it's a good gamble to try to buy out his arb years or not. I would not object to it, I'm just not sure it would save us any money.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  20. #12
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    Reds have an option/buyout on Tucker. They owe him $0.5MM either way, it would take another $7MM to keep him. He's making that decision interesting but the Reds aren't going to pay a backup catcher that much. He'll get a nice 3-4 yr deal somewhere else.

    Miley is another guy with an option - $10MM or $1MM buyout. Is keeping Wade Miley for a year worth $9MM? Time will tell.

    I agree on Lorenzen and Castillo.

    Winker and Mahle are the guys this team should be discussing extensions with.

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    REDREAD (04-28-2021)

  22. #13
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    The players and their agents have a say in this too.

    Winker is looking like an all star, he’ll want all star money. Mahle maybe less so, but the season is young, maybe he’ll want to be paid like a #2 level starter.

    Reds ownership wouldn’t take on a solid relief pitcher salary last off-season. Long way to go before any of this happens.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-28-2021 at 10:57 AM.

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    REDREAD (04-28-2021)

  24. #14
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    I would like to see them at least look into buying out Jesse's arb years plus 1 or 2 extra years. The only player under guaranteed contract beyond 2023 is Suarez. Castellanos has a mutual option, and Votto and Moustakas have club options that will likely be declined. 2024 is when Wink, Mahle, Castillo and Garrett are set to become free agents as well.

    Anyone have a rough estimate of pricing out the remainder of the Mahle/Winker arb years?

  25. #15
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
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    Re: Extension Candidates

    I move to extend Winker and Mahle. Offer Lorenzen an incentive based 2 year deal. Let Tucker walk. If you think Lodolo and Greene will be for real, I’d gauge trade interest in Castillo. He has high upside, but the guy seems volatile. Might be a good idea to use the value to get other pieces of need.


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