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Thread: Covid-19 Part XII

  1. #1
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Covid-19 Part XII

    In early March I said:

    The term is "hygiene theater" and far too many resources are being spent on this. We do not need to be spending all this money on hand sanitizer. Schools/businesses need not close for "sanitation".

    https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...=1#post4213254

    I documented this with a source as can be seen with my link. But others here didn't buy it because the CDC hadn't told them yet. One RZer said this:

    That is just an opinion piece. The CDC and WHO disagree, as they have not changed their stance on this issue.

    The op-ed does say that you can get Covid from surfaces, but it takes touching a surface that is contaminated and then touching your face. That is unlikely for most people, except for those working where there is heavy traffic. They have to touch surfaces touched by many people all day long. And it is those places that are doing the cleaning.

    We still need to clean things after we use them and you absolutely can get it from touching surfaces.
    Well now the CDC has changed their stance and they're now saying exactly what I said back then:

    It’s time to unplug the sanitizing robots and put away the bottles of Clorox that seem to line the entrances to every school, restaurant and supermarket wanting to advertise its safety protocols. While such protocols may be reassuring to an anxious populace, they are not necessary, says a revised guidance issued on Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    “It is possible for people to be infected through contact with contaminated surfaces or objects (fomites), but the risk is generally considered to be low,” the new CDC guidance says, estimating that the chance of contracting the coronavirus through surface transmission is lower than 1 in 10,000.
    It is extremely rare to get it "from touching things" as this number illustrates.

    In that exchange in early March I specifically mentioned as an example that schools were spending far too many resources on deep cleaning and sometimes actually closed for a few days due to it. Well this was also mentioned:

    The coronavirus is spread almost exclusively by airborne and aerosolized particles, as scientists have known for months. Despite scientists’ growing certitude about how the pathogen is transmitted, many establishments have continued to insist on strict sanitization protocols. In some school districts, for example, classrooms close for full-day “deep cleaning.”
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/end-the-h...173440864.html

    Lesson for us all: Don't use the CDC as the Gospel on this. They're generally late to the party and you need not be tardy with them.


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  3. #2
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    Yeah, you've really been on top of things over the past year...

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  4. #3
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Yeah, you've really been on top of things over the past year...

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    Another swing and a miss there. I posed two "if" questions and they were both accurate. It did not predict anything. The headline that I responded to, that C19 is "the leading cause of death" didn't happen. Keep digging

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    If Steel could just get past his personal issues against others here and post on the subject matter being discussed he might be worth reading. Every post is an attempt not to discuss, in this case C19, but to catch someone else in a gotcha. This particular gotcha would have been worth it if he'd also contributed some new information such as a headline from this month that states that C19 is now the leading cause of death in the USA...but he couldn't because it's not. Far from it. For those who wonder, it's a distant third. But since Steel decided to bring up that article, let's look at what it said:

    Anthony Fauci, a leading member of President Trump's coronavirus task force, also said Thursday that early projections estimating between 100,000 to 240,000 fatalities from the virus are now less likely to occur.

    Fauci and other members of the task force are following newer and more data-driven models such as one from the University of Washington, which now projects 60,000 fatalities by August, a stark decrease from early estimations.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/news/49...of-death-in-us

    Wow, Steel...why didn't you mention this? Could it be because you were too busy trying to play gotcha games with me that you forgot to do the same with Fauci? It seems that Fauci was the real inaccurate guy here...not me. Every time you play games like this, you just remind everyone that you're butthurt from our past interactions. Do you really want to advertise that?

    I'm here to discuss C19 but it did come time to call you out on your tactics. A lot of folks are intimidated by you but I am not. In the meantime, thanks for bringing this to our attention. It does show another area where Fauci and the models we were using a year ago were not even remotely accurate.

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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    Dr. Melvin Sanicas ����
    @Vaccinologist

    Have you ever noticed that when something is forbidden or inaccessible, it appears to be that much more attractive? However, when we’re sure that we have it in the bag, we end up losing interest? This is known as the Forbidden Fruit Effect. ��

    5:05am · 6 Apr 2021
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    Going to try some back of the napkin math here that you guys can give feedback on because I'm sure I'm missing some variables.

    We are up to 3 million shots per day. That's probably only going to increase. We have administered 167 million shots. According to Jax's thread, we are at 32.4% of the country having at least one dose and 18.8% being fully vaccinated. A reasonable estimate (and perhaps too low) is that we will deliver 80 million more shots by the end of the month. Probably 15 million of those will be JNJ. Let's say 30 of the other 65 million are second shots, meaning 45 million more people will be fully vaccinated by May 1. So assuming a US population of around 340 million, we would have around 110 million fully vaccinated and 145 million total who have had at least one shot. That would be around a third of the total US population being fully vaccinated by the end of the month.

    More math projection - roughly 270 million adults in the country. Assuming around 75% of adults get vaccinated (which may be high), we'd need to hit around 200 million adults who want to be vaccinated. 4 million shots per day is a reasonable goal for May. I'll assume that 20 million of those are JNJ, 55 million are second shots of mRNA, and 45 million are first shots. That would be 75 million more that are fully vaccinated, bringing us up to around 185 million total. A small percentage of those will be 16 and 17 year olds, but probably not enough to worry about for the wide estimates I'm going for here. So by mid-June at the latest, I would guess that every adult that wanted a vaccine will be fully vaccinated. Even if my 75% guess is high, if you add in naturally gained immunity, I would think 80-85% of adults will have immunity by Flag Day.

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    TyrannoSuarez Wrecks WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    Going to try some back of the napkin math here that you guys can give feedback on because I'm sure I'm missing some variables.

    We are up to 3 million shots per day. That's probably only going to increase. We have administered 167 million shots. According to Jax's thread, we are at 32.4% of the country having at least one dose and 18.8% being fully vaccinated. A reasonable estimate (and perhaps too low) is that we will deliver 80 million more shots by the end of the month. Probably 15 million of those will be JNJ. Let's say 30 of the other 65 million are second shots, meaning 45 million more people will be fully vaccinated by May 1. So assuming a US population of around 340 million, we would have around 110 million fully vaccinated and 145 million total who have had at least one shot. That would be around a third of the total US population being fully vaccinated by the end of the month.

    More math projection - roughly 270 million adults in the country. Assuming around 75% of adults get vaccinated (which may be high), we'd need to hit around 200 million adults who want to be vaccinated. 4 million shots per day is a reasonable goal for May. I'll assume that 20 million of those are JNJ, 55 million are second shots of mRNA, and 45 million are first shots. That would be 75 million more that are fully vaccinated, bringing us up to around 185 million total. A small percentage of those will be 16 and 17 year olds, but probably not enough to worry about for the wide estimates I'm going for here. So by mid-June at the latest, I would guess that every adult that wanted a vaccine will be fully vaccinated. Even if my 75% guess is high, if you add in naturally gained immunity, I would think 80-85% of adults will have immunity by Flag Day.
    I think our country being able to have a pretty wide open 4th of July holiday would be so cathartic. I hope your math plays out.
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    The virus will not be able to withstand the constant pounding of the vaccines. Over the course of the last week, we've kind of treaded water as far as the number of new cases. That also means in that period of treading water another 21 million people got shots.

    What we need to do is make sure people keep getting shots. Which is why I think the Feds need apply the carrot part of the carrot/stick method. Announce a $500 stimulus for those who are fully vaccinated.
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    NY Times has an interesting article on the the next generation of vaccine.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/05/h...1f35f2c2baa6a8
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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    Everyone who wants a vaccine will certainly have it by July 1st and very possibly by June 1st or sooner. The question is, how many want it? I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's 200 million. I don't think there are that many adults who want it but I'd love to be wrong. A couple months ago I guessed 150 million. I'll stick to that for now.

    150 million vaccinated plus those who are naturally immune will probably bring cases down to very low numbers this summer (numbers were low last summer w/o a vax) but will they climb (spike) again in the Fall?

  13. #11
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Everyone who wants a vaccine will certainly have it by July 1st and very possibly by June 1st or sooner. The question is, how many want it? I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's 200 million. I don't think there are that many adults who want it but I'd love to be wrong. A couple months ago I guessed 150 million. I'll stick to that for now.

    150 million vaccinated plus those who are naturally immune will probably bring cases down to very low numbers this summer (numbers were low last summer w/o a vax) but will they climb (spike) again in the Fall?
    Agree that 200 million may be too high. I'll guess that blue states will hit 80-85% of adults vaccinated while red states will be around 60%. Those are still good numbers considering 30% of the country probably has natural immunity by now, going by the models I have seen. Obviously, there will be overlap with people who have had covid also getting the vaccine, but my guess is we'll have blue states with 90% of adults having immunity in one form and north of 70% in red states.

    There might be a small case spike in the fall. How big depends on reinfections, IMO. But with most of the high risk population having immunity, there should be a large gap in cases versus hospitalizations/deaths compared to what we've previously seen.

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  15. #12
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    Going to try some back of the napkin math here that you guys can give feedback on because I'm sure I'm missing some variables.

    We are up to 3 million shots per day. That's probably only going to increase. We have administered 167 million shots. According to Jax's thread, we are at 32.4% of the country having at least one dose and 18.8% being fully vaccinated. A reasonable estimate (and perhaps too low) is that we will deliver 80 million more shots by the end of the month. Probably 15 million of those will be JNJ. Let's say 30 of the other 65 million are second shots, meaning 45 million more people will be fully vaccinated by May 1. So assuming a US population of around 340 million, we would have around 110 million fully vaccinated and 145 million total who have had at least one shot. That would be around a third of the total US population being fully vaccinated by the end of the month.

    More math projection - roughly 270 million adults in the country. Assuming around 75% of adults get vaccinated (which may be high), we'd need to hit around 200 million adults who want to be vaccinated. 4 million shots per day is a reasonable goal for May. I'll assume that 20 million of those are JNJ, 55 million are second shots of mRNA, and 45 million are first shots. That would be 75 million more that are fully vaccinated, bringing us up to around 185 million total. A small percentage of those will be 16 and 17 year olds, but probably not enough to worry about for the wide estimates I'm going for here. So by mid-June at the latest, I would guess that every adult that wanted a vaccine will be fully vaccinated. Even if my 75% guess is high, if you add in naturally gained immunity, I would think 80-85% of adults will have immunity by Flag Day.
    Just something to consider, the JNJ, Pfizer, and Moderna have the same efficacy rate two weeks after the first two weeks, even better for the mRNA vaccines.

    I saw something a month or so ago saying that experts estimate that the actual number of positive cases could be double what the recorded number is. According to the CDC we have roughly 30.5M positive cases with the actual number of positive cases out there probably significantly higher.

    Now granted there is quite a bit of overlap between the positive case numbers and the vaccines, but I think society can "safely" open up a little bit before the July 4th holiday. Now, I think if some of the variants become far more lethal and are not protected by the vaccine or immunity we could have a bad scenario on our hands. But so far that data hasn't shown that.

  16. #13
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    This meme illustrates a point I've been making on the messaging of this vaccine:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    They need to tell these people who are fully vaccinated that they don't have to wear that condom around their mouths and nose anymore. Otherwise, what's the point?

  17. #14
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    Agree that 200 million may be too high. I'll guess that blue states will hit 80-85% of adults vaccinated while red states will be around 60%. Those are still good numbers considering 30% of the country probably has natural immunity by now, going by the models I have seen. Obviously, there will be overlap with people who have had covid also getting the vaccine, but my guess is we'll have blue states with 90% of adults having immunity in one form and north of 70% in red states.

    There might be a small case spike in the fall. How big depends on reinfections, IMO. But with most of the high risk population having immunity, there should be a large gap in cases versus hospitalizations/deaths compared to what we've previously seen.
    I don't buy the reinfections. I saw Nate Silver tweet a while ago about reinfections. Basically he noted that each time there is a case it is pretty well publicized, and those numbered in the single digits. At the same time there were millions of positive test results. If reinfections were to be a problem you would see them far more often than we do.

    I think once Memorial Day hits, most pandemic precautions will be lifted. There may be a resurgence come October again but pretty muted if you ask me. We are getting to the point where the vulnerable population is protected and Covid 19 may never disappear, it may just become noise.

  18. #15
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    Re: Covid-19 Part XII

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    This meme illustrates a point I've been making on the messaging of this vaccine:

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	374CE616-D364-4BFE-9DD8-A46BE034293C.jpeg 
Views:	42 
Size:	39.2 KB 
ID:	17118

    They need to tell these people who are fully vaccinated that they don't have to wear that condom around their mouths and nose anymore. Otherwise, what's the point?
    Would you be willing to have a vaccine passport to prove that you are vaccinated?


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