Are the Reds for real?

[Kc61]

That’s a month away. My guess is that injuries, slumps, etc., sort it all out.

Could be. Was just responding to the easy solution you proposed. If everyone’s healthy, not quite so easy.

[757690]

Could be. Was just responding to the easy solution you proposed. If everyone’s healthy, not quite so easy.

If the only issue is what to do with Naquin, I’d say it’s rather easy.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I disagree both ways on Moose. I think he's below average at 2B and above average at 3B. Farmer is one of those guys who is better in small doses. I really like him as a multi-position bench guy, but as an every day player, I think he gets exposed both offensively and defensively.. I think Suarez is well below average at 3B, though maybe the slimmer Suarez will be better there.

Maybe Farmer gets exposed, so he's certainly unproven, but I have trouble saying he's well below average until he's been well below average at any point.

The metrics kind of hate Moustakas at 3B so I think there is room for subjectivity to get to average-ish but I have trouble saying he's actually polar opposite of the metrics. Moustakas at 2B is tough. Metrics aren't going to tell you much in his small sample so it's going to be tough to argue

I'll just have to agree to disagree on Suarez being well below average at 3B. It's just not going to be productive picking nits between well below average to slightly below average

[mth123]

Maybe Farmer gets exposed, so he's certainly unproven, but I have trouble saying he's well below average until he's been well below average at any point.

The metrics kind of hate Moustakas at 3B so I think there is room for subjectivity to get to average-ish but I have trouble saying he's actually polar opposite of the metrics. Moustakas at 2B is tough. Metrics aren't going to tell you much in his small sample so it's going to be tough to argue

I'll just have to agree to disagree on Suarez being well below average at 3B. It's just not going to be productive picking nits between well below average to slightly below average

I think using Stats at the evidence for any of these guys is suspect. I'm not big on the defensive stats in the first place and most of these samples are too small even if you believe in the stats. I just see the Dodgers giving up on Farmer as an infielder and converting him to Catcher. If they thought he had potential to be a solid infielder that wouldn't have happened. Its funny, a year ago I was arguing that Farmer was a solid enough defender to be the SS back-up and I still think he is, but I'm not confident at all he can play there day in and day out. It's not the same and the Dodgers didn't think he could. I feel the same way about Blandino. The Reds didn't think he was adequate to leave him as a full time SS in the minors even though he was a first round pick and SS is always a need. He's not a full time major leaguer either. You know who did make to the majors as a SS without being moved off the position? Eugenio Suarez. Personally, I don't think he's a very good defender at any position, but I'm not in favor off messing up multiple positions in order take one from atrocious to bad. Lets let the other positions be good and only have one spot on the field where we have to hold our breath on every play.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I think using Stats at the evidence for any of these guys is suspect. I'm not big on the defensive stats in the first place and most of these samples are too small even if you believe in the stats. I just see the Dodgers giving up on Farmer as an infielder and converting him to Catcher. If they thought he had potential to be a solid infielder that wouldn't have happened. Its funny, a year ago I was arguing that Farmer was a solid enough defender to be the SS back-up and I still think he is, but I'm not confident at all he can play there day in and day out. It's not the same and the Dodgers didn't think he could. I feel the same way about Blandino. The Reds didn't think he was adequate to leave him as a full time SS in the minors even though he was a first round pick and SS is always a need. He's not a full time major leaguer either. You know who did make to the majors as a SS without being moved off the position? Eugenio Suarez. Personally, I don't think he's a very good defender at any position, but I'm not in favor off messing up multiple positions in order take one from atrocious to bad. Lets let the other positions be good and only have one spot on the field where we have to hold our breath on every play.

I don't know. Leaving room for subjectivity is one thing but saying you can't use metrics on guys who have played a bulk of their careers at one position seems kind of silly. Should they be taken as gospel? Absolutely not but not dismissed entirely.

That's not how Farmer to catcher went. He was drafted as a catcher. They didn't "give up on him". That was their plan from day 1. However, by the time he got to the majors he was playing more IF than C. I don't have any idea if he can do it every day but, again, I have trouble saying he's well below average.

My point is, I'm not holding my breath a single second with Suarez at 3B, Farmer at SS and Moose at 2B. I see the difference between Moose and Suarez at 3B as marginal. Defensively, Farmer is a clear upgrade from Suarez at SS. If Farmer starts to get exposed, I have no shame in revisiting.

[westofyou]

On pace statements are silly most of the time in retrospect, nonetheless they are fun.

The Reds are on pace to score 847 runs, which would place them right between the 1975 and 1976 team for total runs. The league itself is averaging 4.29 (695) a year end run differential between the Reds pace and the leagues would be a +152 Runs, the 1976 team was +161

RUNS                          YEAR          R       R-LG   
1    Reds                     1999        865         18   
2    Reds                     1976        857        161   
3    Reds                     1975        840        130   
T4   Reds                     1965        825        104   
T4   Reds                     2000        825        -97   
6    Reds                     2005        820         15   
T7   Reds                     1962        802         27   
T7   Reds                     1977        802         67   
9    Reds                     1969        798        106   
10   Reds                     2010        791         54

Now the bad news, the Reds are allowing 5 runs per game which would be a year end total of 810, the league 692, a -118 if on pace was to continue

That would be franchise a top ten worst season in runs vs the league.

RUNS                          YEAR       DIFF       TEAM     LEAGUE   
1    Reds                     2004       -185        907        722   
2    Reds                     1901       -167        818        651   
3    Reds                     2003       -144        886        742   
4    Reds                     2016       -136        854        718   
5    Reds                     2017       -117        869        752   
T6   Reds                     1947       -114        755        641   
T6   Reds                     2005       -114        889        775   
8    Reds                     1969       -106        768        662   
9    Reds                     1935       -105        772        667   
10   Reds                     1930        -98        860        762

But here's the rub, if they score more than they give up they are projected currently to make the playoffs at (17%) and if the R/RA stay consistent they have this:

Expected Winning Percentage: 0.5204 (52.04%)
Expected Number of Wins: 84

This summation though is on pace to be incorrect

[Strikes Out Looking]

The Reds are on pace to be .500. Easy Come, Easy Go. Teeter-Totter.

The way to improve this season is to spend some $$$, probably a couple more bullpen arms and live with the current SS situation.

The good news is that no one else in the division is running away with anything, so a few $$$ may be enough to slip into the playoffs.

[Moose Herd]

The Reds are on pace to be .500. Easy Come, Easy Go. Teeter-Totter.

The way to improve this season is to spend some $$$, probably a couple more bullpen arms and live with the current SS situation.

The good news is that no one else in the division is running away with anything, so a few $$$ may be enough to slip into the playoffs.

Castillo and Suarez playing at their normal levels will be a big boost.

[757690]

Castillo and Suarez playing at their normal levels will be a big boost.

So far, Tucker and Naquin are the only position players over performing, and they don’t play everyday. and Miley being the only pitcher over performing, so it’s not like there are a bunch of players ready to fall back to their career numbers.

I am rather optimistic going forward.

[mth123]

So far, Tucker and Naquin are the only position players over performing, and they don’t play everyday. and Miley being the only pitcher over performing, so it’s not like there are a bunch of players ready to fall back to their career numbers.

I am rather optimistic going forward.

Miley?? Winker?? Castellanos? All significantly higher than expectation. I'd imagine we'll see all three with less production from here on. Even if Winker has a .900 OPS the rest of the year, that's a 200 point drop from what he's done so far. Castellanos is about 100 OPS points above expectations. Hopefully Suarez, Senzel and Votto improve to offset those drops, but there are guys over-performing.

[Ron Madden]

OH ANDY!

[Ron Madden]

Kyle Farmer – When Farmer was viewed as the leading candidate to start at shortstop before the season, the biggest question is whether he could hit right-handed pitching.

Given an opportunity to start consistently at shortstop after Joey Votto’s broken thumb, Farmer is making the most of his chances against righties. He had five singles in 12 at-bats against them this week.

Farmer isn’t crushing righties (.690 OPS in 27 games), but that’s about league-average production vs. right-handed pitching. He’s the best defensive shortstop on the roster, so if he can prove he can hit righties, that could go a long way for his chance to stick at the position for more than a couple of weeks.

Bobby Nightengale, Cincinnati.com

[757690]

Miley?? Winker?? Castellanos? All significantly higher than expectation. I'd imagine we'll see all three with less production from here on. Even if Winker has a .900 OPS the rest of the year, that's a 200 point drop from what he's done so far. Castellanos is about 100 OPS points above expectations. Hopefully Suarez, Senzel and Votto improve to offset those drops, but there are guys over-performing.

This is Winker’s first full season. We have no idea how good he will be. And this is Cast’s first season at GABP.

[mth123]

This is Winker’s first full season. We have no idea how good he will be. And this is Cast’s first season at GABP.

Winker has never had a 1.100 OPS before and if he does it will be among the greatest offensive seasons in history. I'm betting we'll see a production drop. Catellanos would consider it a career year if his OPS is .860. Right now its 100 points higher. Your post implied that there is only upside, but it's just not true.

[757690]

Winker has never had a 1.100 OPS before and if he does it will be among the greatest offensive seasons in history. I'm betting we'll see a production drop. Catellanos would consider it a career year if his OPS is .860. Right now its 100 points higher. Your post implied that there is only upside, but it's just not true.

I’ll grant you likely won’t OPS 1.100, but I think Cast in GABP is where is currently is. Going forward, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Winker be a 1.000 OPS player. I don’t see much of a drop off.