Are the Reds for real?

[MoneyInTheBank]

Yeah it’s that kind of smug snarkiness that makes C Trent intolerable to me

C Trent is hardly the only offender (although, like you, I've found him intolerable for quite some time) but this is the kind of crap that gets passed off as journalism in a media environment judged solely on clicks and interactions. Find an incredibly bad and unpopular take from a few random Twitter followers, prop it up as legit and smack it down with authority or find an incredibly popular take and champion the opposition to that take.

[RedsfaninMT]

Last time the Reds started 5-1: 2016. Record at the end of the year: 68-94. Is it fun? Yeah. I watched and listened most of the afternoon, even though I had other things to do. Is it too early to get excited? Well, yeah.

And then went 1-5. This west coast swing will tell us a lot.

[sdwagers]

C Trent is hardly the only offender (although, like you, I've found him intolerable for quite some time .

Brandon Phillips did too.

[SoTxRedsFan]

I'd like to see Miley against someone that isn't the Pirates. If he can be a legitimate #4 for us all season I like the makeup of the rotation with Castillo, Gray and Mahle at the top. I think the lineup is legit with potential to be one of the best if guys stay healthy.

[Mitri]

I'd like to see what Gray looks like once he returns. I remember feeling very weary last year after he returned from injury, and then he came back and was fantastic. If Sonny comes back healthy and is close to being the pitcher he's been with the Reds, they could claim the NL Central and never let go.

Miley having a career year would and/or Mahle taking that next step wouldn't hurt, either.

[klw]

And then went 1-5. This west coast swing will tell us a lot.

I agree. If they come out of San Francisco with positive momentum that is a very good sign.

[NeilHamburger]

CTrent just wants everyone to know how horrible his job is, and how stupid all his readers are. He's just so smart that you couldn't possibly understand how hard he has it. Cause you see, you're way too dumb.

I wish he had left with Fay. I actually think him and Zach were the worst though. They just totally reinforced each others feelings of superiority and total disdain for their readers. It was like his coming out party for DBagery, and he hasn't smugly looked back since.

[UPRedsFan]

Bench:
The bench is for real. Naquin isn't a flash in the pan. He was a 1st round pick and had success with the Indians. Aquino has real power and good defense. Stephenson maybe should be starting more - he's seems like the real deal. Farmer and Blandino are good fill in players. Best bench we've had in a long time. And it makes the Shogo question really interesting. Who leaves when he's ready? There's not an obvious answer to that question. Hence - strong bench.

Starting 8:
It's a solid lineup top to bottom especially when Stephenson plays. I think it's the best offensive lineup in the division. The 30 or 40 game team slump last year was not for real. When Moose, Cast, Suarez, play to the back of their baseball cards it's a solid group. Just ask the Cards and Pirates pitchers.

Rotation:
4 slots are for real. Castillo/Gray/Mahle. And Miley is capable of pitching like he did yesterday and he has in the past. That wasn't just a poor Pirate offense. He can pitch like that. He did with Houston and Milw. Not sold yet on Hoffman/Deleon or Lorenzen. Maybe Antone is stretched out and this becomes a very solid 1-5 rotation.

Bullpen:
Not sure yet. They are talented and off to a good start except for AG. But lots of questions there. Will Perez maintain his command? Will Fulmer blossom and be consistent under DJ's watch? Will Sims repeat what he did last year? Will Doolittle be what he was before? He's actually the one I have the most confidence in because he's had success in the past and he seems to have his velo back. Garrett always made me nervous when he wasn't the closer. I'm still nervous with him. Antone in the bullpen makes it much stronger. I think it's possible they'll need to bolster later. Maybe thru a trade or maybe it's Vlad or Hunter Green late in the year.

[0-2 Count]

#19 in the ESPN Power Rankings

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...st-week-season

[Shoeless Jeff]

So I am very concerned about the effects of Covid, so to be safe I think we need to cut down travel drastically. I think it would be very selfless for the Reds to volunteer to play half of their games against the Indians and half against the Pirates. If that happens, I will feel REALLY good about this start.

[M2]

#19 in the ESPN Power Rankings

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...st-week-season

EXTREME disrespect. They're one slot behind the 1-6 A's.

[Bourgeois Zee]

#19 in the ESPN Power Rankings

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...st-week-season

Behind the Brewers, Cubs, and Cardinals.

God, I love ESPN baseball "analysis".

[RedsManRick]

EXTREME disrespect. They're one slot behind the 1-6 A's.

I've always disliked power rankings because it's never clear what dimension they're trying to rank order the teams on.

• If it's about which team has been the best so far, just put them in order of their record, run differential, or some other objective measure of performance to date.
• If it's about who's the strongest team right now, then use some other objective measure of that, like ELO
• If it's about projecting the final standings based on performance to date plus updated projections, then just use a projection of the final standings

The ESPN article describes something most similar to the 3rd option. And yet, it uses an "8-voter panel" to come up with its rankings. Why? I guess if you employ a bunch of writers, you need to give them something to do. But I'd MUCH rather see them use an objective algorithm for their analysis & ranking with a clearly defined and communicated logic and then have their journalists supplement that with tidbits, articles, and opinions to provide color. But the wisdom of the squishy, wisdom of the crowds from "analysts" seems sort of pointless -- other than maybe as an opportunity to tick people off and create engagement.

For example: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...b-predictions/

This has us 15th in ELO (generic team strength), with a projected 85-77 record and +47 differential (T-8, top in NL Central).

[M2]

For example: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...b-predictions/

This has us 15th in ELO (generic team strength), with a projected 85-77 record and +47 differential (T-8, top in NL Central).

I like this because it affirms my team prediction. Though I still think it's going to be tough to hit that, because the rest of the division could give the top team or two a lot of helium.

As for the ESPN list, if they do it every week, then it ought to be putting a lot of weight on current form. Otherwise it's just a restatement of their preseason predictions. Not exactly compelling content.

[GAC]

Behind the Brewers, Cubs, and Cardinals.

God, I love ESPN baseball "analysis".

That's not how you spell dialysis