Is Antone the Best Pitcher On the Staff?

[757690]

I mean that’s like saying Winker or Votto are our best hitters, so let’s keep them on the bench so we can pinch hit with them in the spot we need them most late in the game.

But no one would ever argue that, because you always get your best hitters the most PAs they possibly can, just like you give your best pitchers the most innings they can possibly pitch.

Position players are different than pitchers in that they normally play the entire game. That means position players hit in every kind of situation, high, low and medium leverage.

Starting pitchers pitch more innings, but they are usually lower leverage than the best relievers. We actually call the best relievers “high leverage” relievers, as that is when they are used.

Generally, even with pitching in lower leverage situations, starters provide more value, but there definitely are exceptions to this, and way the Reds are using Antone in relief right now, he could be one of those exceptions. This is even more likely this season as teams are limiting starters innings, and using their pen more. This will all depend on how he is used and how well he performs, but he could be more valuable in relief than as a starter.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I mean that’s like saying Winker or Votto are our best hitters, so let’s keep them on the bench so we can pinch hit with them in the spot we need them most late in the game.

But no one would ever argue that, because you always get your best hitters the most PAs they possibly can, just like you give your best pitchers the most innings they can possibly pitch.

I think this is a bit of an oversimplification. There should be no argument whether Antone at, let's say, a 2.50 ERA over 80 innings is more valuable than a 2.50 ERA over 180 innings. However, it's unlikely he would perform at that same level as a starter. To what extent? We can't be sure until he's given the opportunity and I think that will be a tease to the fans until we see it.

[Kc61]

I mean that’s like saying Winker or Votto are our best hitters, so let’s keep them on the bench so we can pinch hit with them in the spot we need them most late in the game.

But no one would ever argue that, because you always get your best hitters the most PAs they possibly can, just like you give your best pitchers the most innings they can possibly pitch.

Relievers pitched over 44% of MLB innings last year. The role of a primary reliever in today’s game is far more extensive and significant than that of a pinch hitter (as reflected by top relief FA salaries).

Apples and oranges comparison. As is the comparison of Antone, who has only a few major league starts, with Jesse Winker and Joey Votto.

[BillDoran]

Relievers pitched over 44% of MLB innings last year. The role of a primary reliever in today’s game is far more extensive and significant than that of a pinch hitter (as reflected by top relief FA salaries).

Apples and oranges comparison. As is the comparison of Antone, who has only a few major league starts, with Jesse Winker and Joey Votto.

The reason 44% of innings were pitched by relievers was because there's not enough good starting pitching to go around. I assure you, managers aren't pulling their pitcher who's in a groove to get to their ace reliever.


Think of any metric for value--WAR, salaries, prestige, you name it--and pitchers outrank relievers every time.

Y'all are trying to go down a road where you say a No. 1 reliever has more value than a No. 4-5 starter (which I disagree with), but this presumes you know Antone's ceiling as a starter. Antone might be better than Tyler Mahle or even Luis Castillo.

You can try to slice this however you want, but there's a reason that pitching prospects don't move to the pen until they show they can't be a starter. There's a reason most pitchers want to be in the rotation. It's because starters are more valuable, full stop. Stop trying to galaxy brain this.

[757690]

The reason 44% of innings were pitched by relievers was because there's not enough good starting pitching to go around. I assure you, managers aren't pulling their pitcher who's in a groove to get to their ace reliever.


Think of any metric for value--WAR, salaries, prestige, you name it--and pitchers outrank relievers every time.

Y'all are trying to go down a road where you say a No. 1 reliever has more value than a No. 4-5 starter (which I disagree with), but this presumes you know Antone's ceiling as a starter. Antone might be better than Tyler Mahle or even Luis Castillo.

You can try to slice this however you want, but there's a reason that pitching prospects don't move to the pen until they show they can't be a starter. There's a reason most pitchers want to be in the rotation. It's because starters are more valuable, full stop. Stop trying to galaxy brain this.

You’re basing this on what has been the case up until now. But the game is changing.

Teams don’t want starters to go through the lineup a third time. This is happening with even their #1-2 starters. Sure, there are exceptions, but we are now in an era where starters go 5 maybe 6 innings, no matter how well they are pitching. And with everyone coming off a 60 game schedule last season, most will be going fewer innings.

What we are looking at is a a starter getting around 100-120 IP this season. This also means more innings for a reliever, and more relievers going more than one inning in their appearance. So we are looking at a reliever like Antone getting 80-100 IP.

There isn’t that big of a difference in innings pitched, and as a reliever, it’s likely Antone’s innings will be higher leverage as a reliever than as a starter.

Long story short. It’s not a done deal that Antone this season will be more valuable as a starter than as a reliever. I see it as a coin flip, depending mostly on how he is used in either role.

[krm1580]

I 100% agree with starters being more valuable than relievers and the Reds would theoretically benefit from him pitching more innings and not less. The problem for me is Tejay Antone is a bit of a conundrum at this point and I don't want to mess him up if this is where he is most effective.

The thing a lot of people might not realize, since he's technically still a rookie, he's 27 years old. The guy has a pretty extensive minor league track record in as a middling starter. There is also a pretty good reason a guy with his type of electric stuff never got close to a top 100 prospect or even a top 10 prospect with the Reds and it because it was not that electric. I don't know if it was getting a full year past TJ surgery under his belt or working with Boddy or both before last season was the first time I heard of his stuff really opening people's eyes.

I say all that to say this. Its very possible he is already in the perfect role. His stuff might not play up going 6 innings every 5 days. If you get the rest of the bullpen sorted out maybe you can give him a shot in the rotation later in the season. Until then I say just leave him be.

[TRF]

Long story short. It’s not a done deal that Antone this season will be more valuable as a starter than as a reliever. I see it as a coin flip, depending mostly on how he is used in either role.

Maybe the question is this:

Is Antone in the pen with Miley/Hoffman in the rotation more valuable than Antone in the rotation and one of them in the 'pen?

Miley had his first real test of the year and did about as well as I expected. Better maybe. I thought he'd give up 6 runs. Hoffman has either been lucky or Castillo very unlucky as they have some very similar numbers so far. But we know Castillo is an ace level talent. And De Leon had a spectacular pen debut.

I may have been wrong about Sal as a breakout player... ah well. I do still like the movement I see on his pitches. Location... not so much.

But I digress...

IMO it seems like Antone in the rotation is the best move, but might be impossible until De Leon and C. Perez step up to their potential. De Leon had a very good 1st day in the pen. Perez has been getting incrementally better. It seems like he is starting to settle in.

And Garrett. He has GOT to get going. Looks to me like he's lost that Closer job to Sims/Doolittle.

[*BaseClogger*]

I think I'd rather they just use Antone a bit more frequently. Keep him on pace for 110-120 higher leverage innings, and that just about equals 130-140 lower leverage, and potentially less productive, innings.

Every time a RZ poster tries to insinuate a reliever will throw 110+ innings in a season I'll be here to say: no, that's actually unlikely to happen...

[Wonderful Monds]

Every time a RZ poster tries to insinuate a reliever will throw 110+ innings in a season I'll be here to say: no, that's actually unlikely to happen...

His most favorable reliever comparison he’s received I think is Josh Hader, and even he only ever 81 innings at most in a season

[*BaseClogger*]

His most favorable reliever comparison he’s received I think is Josh Hader, and even he only ever 81 innings at most in a season

Antone is currently on pace for ~90 innings

[Thisyear]

Maybe the question is this:

Is Antone in the pen with Miley/Hoffman in the rotation more valuable than Antone in the rotation and one of them in the 'pen?

Miley had his first real test of the year and did about as well as I expected. Better maybe. I thought he'd give up 6 runs. Hoffman has either been lucky or Castillo very unlucky as they have some very similar numbers so far. But we know Castillo is an ace level talent. And De Leon had a spectacular pen debut.

I may have been wrong about Sal as a breakout player... ah well. I do still like the movement I see on his pitches. Location... not so much.

But I digress...

IMO it seems like Antone in the rotation is the best move, but might be impossible until De Leon and C. Perez step up to their potential. De Leon had a very good 1st day in the pen. Perez has been getting incrementally better. It seems like he is starting to settle in.

And Garrett. He has GOT to get going. Looks to me like he's lost that Closer job to Sims/Doolittle.

How was this Mileys first real test? He pitched perfectly fine in his previous two major league starts. I guess these don't count because he did well. Please let me know which games count so I can only start watching those ones.

[Mitri]

Every time a RZ poster tries to insinuate a reliever will throw 110+ innings in a season I'll be here to say: no, that's actually unlikely to happen...

110 assumes he'll get a few starts here and there. I basically used whatever Zips has him projected for, which as of today is 114. If he remains in the 'pen all season it will be less, but I think he could hit 90 or so if they stretch his role.

[*BaseClogger*]

110 assumes he'll get a few starts here and there. I basically used whatever Zips has him projected for, which as of today is 114. If he remains in the 'pen all season it will be less, but I think he could hit 90 or so if they stretch his role.

I think for the purpose of debating Antone's value as a starter vs a reliever it's disingenuous to include some spot starts in his innings total as part of your case for using him as a reliever?

[Roy Tucker]

In a perfect world, Antone would be a starter. Up till last year, that’s what he was. But towards the end of last year, all through spring training, and the early part of this year, he has shown excellent stuff, control, and has dominated every time out. If there was a guy to put in the rotation, it would be Antone. He’s not a number 4 or 5 starter, he’s a number 2-3. He has the stuff to excel.

But the Reds ignored their bullpen and now depend on Antone to prop it up. And that stinks. Reminds me of Aroldis Chapman in 2012. He was going to start but Ryan Madson blew out his elbow and Sean Marshall wasn’t up to the task. Chapman became the close and stayed there. Not that Chapman and Antone are similar pitchers, but you’re taking a guy who would be a very good starter and putting him in the bullpen because of a team weakness.