UK Basketball 2021-2022: Back on Track?

[WVRed]

Its to the point where I "hate" Duke more than I do you guys!

Give credit where it’s due, they know how to close on recruits. Early Friday when Lively announced he was committing everyone including myself assumed it was going to be Kentucky. When leaks started coming out it was Duke and Cal was visiting Adem Bona it was pretty much a given he wasn’t coming to Kentucky.

The last recruit Kentucky beat Duke out for was Kevin Knox. Outside of that, anyone Duke wants they usually beat everybody out for on the recruiting trail.

What I’m worried about with Kentucky is that Cal and staff went after both so hard that now Bona essentially views himself and I’m sure other schools are painting him as a consolation prize.

I’m honestly amazed that Cal has struck out so much on bigs on the recruiting trail. Having Camby, Anthony Davis, KAT, and Bam to fall back on and lose Lively to Duke who hasn’t produced a NBA big on the level that Kentucky has. I don’t get it.

Just to run it back:

Mo Bamba
Bol Bol
James Wiseman
Vernon Carey
Jalen Duren
Dereck Lively

[WVRed]

I know it’s a scrimmage but Oscar got a 20/20.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I know it’s a scrimmage but Oscar got a 20/20.

Oscar Tshiebwe is a man, but he may well be a foul waiting to happen.

[WVRed]

Oscar Tshiebwe is a man, but he may well be a foul waiting to happen.

I know everyone is panicking because Kentucky lost out on Lively and are in a hole for Adem Bona (UCLA has gotten some crystal ball movement) but I don’t see Oscar being a one and done to where there’s a hole in the middle next year.

I think Oscar will have a similar career to Nick Richards. He will have it figured out later rather than sooner.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I know everyone is panicking because Kentucky lost out on Lively and are in a hole for Adem Bona (UCLA has gotten some crystal ball movement) but I don’t see Oscar being a one and done to where there’s a hole in the middle next year.

I think Oscar will have a similar career to Nick Richards. He will have it figured out later rather than sooner.

Interesting.

I'm not sure if Richards is a good comp, as Tshiebwe is a much bigger, stronger guy. He's going to be an elite rebounder (and likely already is). If he can glide similarly to Bam and guard 2 - 5, he'll be picked up in the lottery this season. The mid-range shot might be his key to be drafted in the top 10.

The guy who I think will end up being a two- or three-year player is Collins. He needs weight and strength training desperately. His frame will likely limit him to 10 - 15 mpg a game unless the opposing team has someone as skinny. (Unlikely.) I really like his willingness to shoot from three-point range-- and the fact that he's gone 3-4 in the limited minutes we've seen. It'd be really nice to have a real stretch five similar to Josh Harrelson around.

[WVRed]

Interesting.

I'm not sure if Richards is a good comp, as Tshiebwe is a much bigger, stronger guy. He's going to be an elite rebounder (and likely already is). If he can glide similarly to Bam and guard 2 - 5, he'll be picked up in the lottery this season. The mid-range shot might be his key to be drafted in the top 10.

The guy who I think will end up being a two- or three-year player is Collins. He needs weight and strength training desperately. His frame will likely limit him to 10 - 15 mpg a game unless the opposing team has someone as skinny. (Unlikely.) I really like his willingness to shoot from three-point range-- and the fact that he's gone 3-4 in the limited minutes we've seen. It'd be really nice to have a real stretch five similar to Josh Harrelson around.

I’ve followed Tshiebwe from watching WVU games (kinda my adopted second team from living here)

He’s raw and to your credit earlier will likely have to worry about fouling issues. He’s from the Congo and had the same host family as Sagaba Konate in high school which is how he ended up at WVU. Huggins tried using him and Derek Culver inside together and it bogged down the offense. Once Oscar left Huggins went to a smaller lineup that we have clamored for Cal to adopt and the flow improved.

He will be a better fit in Lexington and can man the middle in a scheme better suited to him and not have to share the inside (no offense to Lance Ware).

Collins strikes me as a transfer portal waiting to happen if he doesn’t contribute right away. Hope I’m wrong but that’s the college landscape we live in now.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Some notes on the scrimmage:

- Damion Collins has some ELITE athleticism. Super long, fast, and a surprisingly good shooter from three. Reminds me of a cross between AD and Skal. It'll be interesting to see how he develops over the course of the season, and whether Calipari lets him shoot from distance. (It'll probably help that he's not big enough to stay underneath the hoop.) In a typical season, he'd be the starter from jump street. This year? He might take a spot from Grady or Wheeler by January.

- Davion Mintz did not have his best game, but he's playing against two really, really good defenders. Both Wheeler and Washington are going to be tough to play against, especially as they pester the ball. (Mintz might too. He's got some dog in him too.) I really like Washington with the ball in his hands. Wheeler is Jeckyll and Hyde.

- Kellan Grady took a while to get warm, but he can pour in points in a hurry. That said, he looked like the third option on offense often. It'll be interesting to see how other teams respond to him. He's been a scorer used to having the ball in his hands. How will he respond on the wing? I suspect pretty well, as the season moves on.

- Calipari played his would-be wings (Brooks and Hopkins) together on the White team, and they struggled scoring against Dontaie Allen(!) and Damion Collins. Some of that is probably guard play. Some of it is role. Brooks looked much, much better on the Blue team. I like him as a four. Collins too. Toppin too. And Hopkins. That's four fours-- and that won't work. Something will have to give there.

- Tshiebwe is going to be in foul trouble all season. He's so strong that it's going to look like he's killing people. The over/under on number of minutes he plays against Duke in the first half is two.

- The second half Blue team are, IMO, going to be the starters: Wheeler, Washington, Brooks, Thsiebwe, and Grady. They clearly played well together. As mentioned earlier, Brooks, in particular, looked much better with better players around him. Wheeler looks really good next to Washington too. Grady as well.

- Sahvir Wheeler creates for others, but he's going to make some TO. It'll help, IMO, that there are so many options. He can play as hard as possible for a few minutes at a time, then come out, rest, and do it again. I'd have he and Mintz or Fredrick on a string-- one up, the other down-- consistently.

- TyTy Washington is the best shooter on the team-- unless Fredrick can come in and show him up. Super deep range, and he doesn't force anything. Just aggressive enough, IMO, on offense. Whichever team he was on was the better team for most of the night. That wasn't an accident.

- Toppin didn't play. I'm curious what position he'll be at when he comes back. I'm hoping Calipari uses him as the backup center. That'll be an important position, possibly. Hopkins might be able to handle bigs. So might Brooks (At least for a few minutes.) Collins-- if the other team has a stick for a center or in combination with Brooks or Hopkins-- might work as well. Ware showed some hustle, but got tired. I'd throw the kitchen sink at center when Tshiebwe gets an unfriendly whistle.

- Fredrick fits in more interestingly. He does some things that this team is going to need, I suspect. I'm guessing he'll play behind Grady as a third guard against teams that aren't super tall and as Wheeler's backup against teams that sag into a 2-3 zone.

- Stop me if you've heard this before-- Dontaie Allen showed flashes of being really good. He only got a little taste of playing with Washington, though. I'm guessing that makes Allen the 10th or 11th guy. I'm also guessing he'll transfer after the season or perhaps at the halfway point of the season. Too bad, too. If Cal just lets him play, he's a Bucket.

[UKWhoDey]

Looking forward to the season guys. We looked a lot more comfortable as a group than last years debacle did at any point.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'm curious who'll start on Friday in their first exhibition tilt.

I'm guessing the rotation will be:

PG: Sahvir Wheeler/ Davion Mintz
SG: Ty Ty Washington/ CJ Fredrick
SG: Kellan Grady/ Bryce Hopkins/ Dontaie Allen
PF: Keion Brooks/ Damion Collins
C: Oscar Tshiebwe/ Jacob Toppin/ Lance Ware

I'm also guessing he's going to end up playing nine guys. That's a little out of his comfort zone. Calipari likes to play eight.

The question is who gets squeezed?

Tshiebwe's foul troubles will likely mean all five would-be bigs get some run-time.

The Blue team looked really good with Washington handling a lot of the PG duties. Does that mean they could use less Wheeler and more Mintz and Fredrick? That'd open up the floor, as everyone could shoot in a hypothetical four-out offense. If not Wheeler, possibly Fredrick-- though he's shown good handles, underrated athleticism, solid defense, and elite shooting while at Iowa. I'm thinking Calipari will need that shooting when teams pack the paint against a team with non-shooters Wheeler and Tshiebwe.

The keys to beating this team, IMO, are four-fold:

1. Get Tshiebwe in foul trouble.
He's going to be vital to the success of this team, I suspect. If he's allowed to roam free, he'll clean up misses even when you've defended your tail off. He can add five shooting percentage points to the team totals just by being on the floor and active. Too, his defense underneath will be fun to watch. On Calipari's best teams, the primary defender walls off opposing bigs, while help defenders head hunt for blocks. If I'm Calipari, I'm probably thinking (by March) that a Colling/ Tshiebwe pairing at PF and C will result in some easy put-backs, open threes, and stifling D. That can't happen, however, if the transfer from WVU is on the bench. Go right at him, and hope the whistles are going your way. Once he's out of the game, you've got much easier sledding.

2. Make Wheeler beat you from outside.
He's a fine floor general and should be a pest on the ball (especially against ball dominant PGs). He's also going to get a couple layups all by himself due to quickness. The best choice, then, is to drop off of him three or four steps. Slide under every pick and roll. Tony Allen his outside shot completely. Hope he takes the bait. I'm guessing he'll get hot one game this season from deep and carry Kentucky to a win pretty much all by himself. The rest of the time, he's going to be an Achilles' heel on the perimeter.

3. Get back and pack the paint.
Grady's s good shot. Fredrick too. Washington looks like he might be as well. Shade to those shooters, for sure. But don't let them beat you from the paint. Hope at least one of those guys can't find the bucket. Get back early-- that might mean you sacrifice some offensive rebounding from your wings and guards, but sacrifices have to be made. Gang rebound on the defensive side to make up for it.

4. Muscle up.
Washington's never played like this, and he's not exactly stacked. Collins is a string bean with three-inch circumference legs. Bang on them, get them tired, then take advantage. I'd try to do that to a lesser extent with Brooks, Grady, and Wheeler as well. Make the game a slog. Try the old Pitino strategy: Foul all the time, and dare the refs to call them all. Hand-checking Washington should keep him in front of you-- and easier to guide to help. Setting hard screens on Wheeler and Grady can wear them out too. The problem there, of course, is that Kentucky will have reinforcements coming in better than your own. So make it count.

[UKWhoDey]

I agree with your starting 5 prediction for Friday. I think Brooks gets the nod until someone like Collins passes him up. I dunno, I guess I tend to think since he's a junior he kind of is who he is....a la Azubuike or Poythress. But who's to say? He might have a coming out party this year and tear it up. I hope he does!

I really liked what I saw with Grady once he got comfortable. It took him a bit to get into the flow at BW but once he did, he looked pretty damn good. I think we're in for a real fun seasons boys. Go Big Blue!

[WVRed]

Cal has pretty much said Wheeler, TyTy, and Oscar have three starting spots locked up. The wings are up for grabs and I would think Keion would be one of them given the improvement we’ve heard about him and being a junior.

In recruiting news, Cal is getting a chance to make one final pitch to Adem Bona. He seems like a lock for UCLA at this point but I’m not betting against Cal since he’s taken the lead in Bonas recruitment.

[cumberlandreds]

I watched the BW game and liked what I saw. Washington looks really good. Good range from the outside. Also looks like they will have a good three point shooting team. You have to have that in todays game. Oscar ( I won't attempt to spell his name) looks like a beast inside. Like you all have aid that is likely to get him into foul trouble all season. The games he can stay away from that he should dominate. Grady looked good too as did just about everyone. Wheeler is quick as lightening and should be able to run the point very well. Having veterans helps a lot this time a year as Cal said. They know the routine and you don't have to teach that to them. As with all of Cal's teams it will come down to how they blend with each other. If they come together real well this should be a Final Four contender.

What is Frederick's injury? I was looking forward to seeing him play and his outside touch.

[WVRed]

Bona to announce Monday. Sounds like UCLAs at this point.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Five Notes After the First Exhibition Game, 10/29:

1. Ty Ty Washington is a Bucket.
Washington is very, very good with the ball, without the ball, as a spot-up shooter, as a driver, as a passer, and surprisingly adept as a one-on-one defender. He's going to be an All-American candidate and should be viewed as a co-favorite for SEC POTY. He doesn't get rattled or shook and already plays with pace. Not sure how good he'll be at the next level-- I suspect he's a cross between Quickley and Maxey. Regardless, when he's on the floor, the team is much more effective offensively. I really like Washington running off those flare screens and in the open court. He's a weapon both in offensive sets and the open court. That's really rare.

2. The offense still runs through the bigs.
That said, while there were lots of things to like about the offensive sets-- four-out and even a couple very effective five-out sets, 29 threes taken, a 37+% shooting percentage from deep-- it's still Cal coaching. Tshiebwe is going to get touches nearly every time downcourt while he's on the block. I'm not sure how effective that will end up being, as he doesn't strike me as the type of big who should be an offensive fulcrum. Might be a bit undersized (in terms of length) to play over opposing bigs and too loose with the ball to face up more than a couple times a game. Of course, he was a little dinged up, so perhaps Tshiebwe has more in the tank that he might show. His explosiveness was lacking a bit last night.

3. Another big is going to have to emerge.
Even if Tshiebwe is full strength and dominating, he's going to end up in foul trouble. He's too big, too strong, and too aggressive to stay "clean" (even if he's only doing what everyone else is doing). It's clear the Cats are going to need a backup who can give anywhere between 10 and 25 mpg each and every game. Last night, Ware showed early flashes of being an energy guy, then made a couple of questionable decisions leading to a second half funk wherein he was largely ineffective. Calipari tried Brooks as the big for a little bit, and that was a defensive disaster (though it positively hummed offensively). Collins was in there, but didn't have the greatest night, and Hopkins was pretty bad all night. Either of those two might develop, but I tend to doubt it. (I'd also like to see Dontaie Allen given a shot at the PF spot, if only because if they're going to be bad defensively anyway, they might as well be the best offensive team possible-- kind of a Duke Lite approach.)

I'm guessing that backup center spot is where Jacob Toppin earns his scholarship. He's long enough to do it and skilled enough to cause some serious mismatches. Good handle and a solid shot out to three-point range, he's better suited to a five-out offense than either horns or the four-out used much of last night. That said, Kentucky does have a five-out offense that looked really interesting-- and I'm guessing Brooks might enjoy playing on the block some as well. Defensively, Toppin's an active and long 6'9". I'm not sure if he can bang with big bodies, but he might be the best bet among the options. Cal is clearly begging for someone to be a defensive stopper. Toppin likely fits that bill, at least early.

4. Keion Brooks has found his range.
I love Brooks' development and willingness to shoot from the PF position in last night's exhibition. He was aggressive for nearly the entirety of the night on offense. 4 for 6 from deep is particularly fun to see for a guy who's spent most of his first two seasons planted under the basket or dribbling from the three-point line into defenders rather than letting it fly. 18 points in 21 mpg is some incredible production. So is 8 rebounds. Defensively, he's going to need work. It was his guy who went off for 29 points, largely on straight drives and post-ups. He also allowed smaller KWU guards to take him to the hoop largely with impunity. (From the midway point of the second half on, his D was atrocious, and Kentucky Wesleyan keyed on him.) Maybe he gets better with Tshiebwe, but I suspect interior defense (and shot-blocking) will be an issue all year.

5. The third guard spot should be wide open.
Wheeler is going to play a bunch of PG, but will be limited by size and the need to go as hard as possible. I expect him to get 28 - 30 mpg at most. Washington is likely to play just a bit more, if only because Kentucky will need his scoring punch. Davion Mintz will get 22 to 28 minutes, I suspect, backing up both Wheeler and Washington and playing with them as well. The issue with that lineup is that it's really small-- I'm not sure Calipari can bring himself to actually commit to it. Kellan Grady will get first shot at the third guard spot, but he's been adequate at best in both the Blue-White game and last night's exhibition. Offensively, he's got a pretty stroke, but it hasn't fallen.

That should leave the door open for third guard/ wing minutes.

Hopkins could play there. So could Collins. Both would make Calipari happy in terms of height and rebounding, but neither showed much in the way of stopping opposing players defensively. And that's been the way to beat the Cats for a decade now-- play small, shoot from deep, negate their height and length with your quickness and shooting. Cal said he wanted to get away from that. So let's assume he's committed to a three-guard lineup.

The next obvious option is Dontaie Allen, but he's not looked any better than Grady. (In fact, he's looked fairly bad in limited minutes.) That should lead to CJ Fredrick. He's 6'3", which is not ideal, but it's the same size as Mintz and Washington. More importantly, he's another dead-eye shooter-- perhaps the best in the nation. We haven't seen him play defensively at Kentucky, but last year in Iowa, he was their worst defender by a significant margin. He was nearly as bad the year before as well. Grady seems to be a better options defensively-- he's 6'5" and can fake it as a wing, especially in the SEC. But if he's not going to knock down shots, Mintz and Fredrick could well steal his minutes.

Speaking of Mintz, boy, he had a good game. Very aggressive offensively, he didn't quite get his range (1-5 from deep), but he drove the ball to the rim hard. He also made several good passes. Cal might well make Mintz a three-position backup, but I'm not sure that makes the team better. This is another spot to watch as the season progresses.

[WVRed]

Give credit where it’s due, they know how to close on recruits. Early Friday when Lively announced he was committing everyone including myself assumed it was going to be Kentucky. When leaks started coming out it was Duke and Cal was visiting Adem Bona it was pretty much a given he wasn’t coming to Kentucky.

The last recruit Kentucky beat Duke out for was Kevin Knox. Outside of that, anyone Duke wants they usually beat everybody out for on the recruiting trail.

What I’m worried about with Kentucky is that Cal and staff went after both so hard that now Bona essentially views himself and I’m sure other schools are painting him as a consolation prize.

I’m honestly amazed that Cal has struck out so much on bigs on the recruiting trail. Having Camby, Anthony Davis, KAT, and Bam to fall back on and lose Lively to Duke who hasn’t produced a NBA big on the level that Kentucky has. I don’t get it.

Just to run it back:

Mo Bamba
Bol Bol
James Wiseman
Vernon Carey
Jalen Duren
Dereck Lively

Bumping this up to add Adem Bona to the list of misses. Kid said he grew up dreaming of playing for Calipari and Cal hedges on Duren and Lively to where it pushes Bona away to UCLA who prioritized him from the start.

If they add a big it will be through the transfer portal or a reclassification.