Is Suarez broken?

[757690]

Suarez 54% fly ball rate, LD rate 10.3%.
K rate 38.6%.
Contact rate 57.8% was 70.7% in 2020.
HardHit% (Statcast) 28.2% was 43.9% in 2020.
OSwing% 25.5% slightly less (better) than last three seasons.

Looks like someone over swinging for the long ball, stil patient enough but not making hard contact, popping it up and missing too often.

Thanks for the research.

This season so far, he’s far worse than he was last year, and Statcast reveals the big difference. .341 xwOBA in 2020, .302 xwOBA in 2021.

His strike outs are way up too from last year, 29% K rate in 2020, 39% K rate in 2021.

His line drive rate is alarmingly low, since most hitters have a rather constant line drive rate of around 20%. It dropped a bit last year to 18%, but 12% is almost never seen for a MLB starter.

I’m not sure we can conclude from the numbers that it’s over swinging for the long ball, however. His ground ball rate is actually just a hair up from last year. He’s actually pulling the ball less, 54% in 2020, 46% in 2021, going the other way more, 18% in 2020 and 23% in 2021, and more “medium” contact, 49% in 2020, 56% in 2021.

However, watching him, it does look like he’s swinging for the fences, but it’s hard to say if it’s more than usual, since that has been his standard approach for years.

My guess, and it’s just a guess, is that it’s bat speed. He had the shoulder injury, and that could have affected his bat speed, and he needs to adjust to this. We’ve seen it with all good hitters, though it usually happens at a later age. Maybe the shoulder injury had that come sooner for Suarez.

[Ron Madden]

My guess is it's a slump. My hope is he will break out of it soon.

[scotly50]

If Suarez "must" be in the line-up, he should not bat above 5th or 6th.

[Mitri]

He’s in a funk, hopefully he can get a day or two off once Moose is back. I would give Blandino some reps at SS over Farmer.

Geno probably needed all spring to get his swing back in order but ended up spending most of it prepping at SS. Another failure that I mostly blame on this inept organization and not so much the players.

[Coopdaddy67]

If Suarez "must" be in the line-up, he should not bat above 5th or 6th.

When Moustakas is back, I'd probably go Winker, Castellanos, Votto, Moustakas, Suarez. #2/3 are interchangeable to me depending on which two lefties you want going back-to-back.

[JFLegal]

who do you bench him for? farmer? lol.

truth is, the reds' plan of going into the season without a real shortstop turned out to be unwise. it's why zero other teams try and do it.

[Kc61]

Thanks for the research.

This season so far, he’s far worse than he was last year, and Statcast reveals the big difference. .341 xwOBA in 2020, .302 xwOBA in 2021.

His strike outs are way up too from last year, 29% K rate in 2020, 39% K rate in 2021.

His line drive rate is alarmingly low, since most hitters have a rather constant line drive rate of around 20%. It dropped a bit last year to 18%, but 12% is almost never seen for a MLB starter.

I’m not sure we can conclude from the numbers that it’s over swinging for the long ball, however. His ground ball rate is actually just a hair up from last year. He’s actually pulling the ball less, 54% in 2020, 46% in 2021, going the other way more, 18% in 2020 and 23% in 2021, and more “medium” contact, 49% in 2020, 56% in 2021.

However, watching him, it does look like he’s swinging for the fences, but it’s hard to say if it’s more than usual, since that has been his standard approach for years.

My guess, and it’s just a guess, is that it’s bat speed. He had the shoulder injury, and that could have affected his bat speed, and he needs to adjust to this. We’ve seen it with all good hitters, though it usually happens at a later age. Maybe the shoulder injury had that come sooner for Suarez.

Whatever the problem(s) are, they’re producing an unusually high rate of strikeouts and fly balls.

When the ball is elevated, it tends to be a fly ball and not a line drive.

I’ll leave it to the experts to figure it out, but there would seem to be a swing path/angle element to it, not just bat speed.

In the old days coaches would tell him just hit the ball back up the middle.

[BillDoran]

I don't understand the Reds love affair with Suarez, even Larkin has a pet nickname for him. He is a strikeout machine who does not adjust with two strikes. He was an average third baseman and a disaster at short stop. He might get a decent reliever on the trade market, but we have enough in the system to replace him right now.

Either you have a short memory or are into knee-jerk reactions. He's effectively a homegrown star. He's put up 15.4 fWAR since joining the organization, including back-to-back seasons of 135 and 133 wRC+. He's made the All Star team. He's received MVP votes twice.

He's really good, and he's only 29 and signed for three more seasons (at a bargain rate). While there's reason to be concerned, if you weren't/aren't a Suarez fan, you're probably not a Reds fan.

[RedsBrick]

I don't understand Bell's propensity to keep him in the 3/4 spot. He's not doing him any favors considering the pressure to produce from those spots. Drop him to 6/7, maybe even 8. Give him a couple days off then put him back in lower in the lineup.

[Kc61]

I don't understand Bell's propensity to keep him in the 3/4 spot. He's not doing him any favors considering the pressure to produce from those spots. Drop him to 6/7, maybe even 8. Give him a couple days off then put him back in lower in the lineup.

Some managers don’t like to revamp the batting order when players get hot or cold. They don’t see it as an answer. And it may only increase pressure on a slumping player by suggesting the problem is serious warranting changes.

Bell also seems to like the younger players lower down as they adjust to big league pitching. And catcher.

If Suarez continues to hit poorly at some point there will probably be changes, maybe rest, batting order, etc.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I'm not worried about his bat yet. He has too much of a track record for me to worry. He is still barreling the ball when he makes contact, he's actually chasing less than normal. He's missing more balls in the zone. I'm guessing a bit of a funk

[Griffey012]

To me it seems like his timing is just off and he isn't letting the ball get deep enough before swinging, which is why he is waiving at a lot of outside pitches and seemingly pulling off of them.

[Kc61]

To me it seems like his timing is just off and he isn't letting the ball get deep enough before swinging, which is why he is waiving at a lot of outside pitches and seemingly pulling off of them.

Suarez’ swing rate off the plate is not higher this year.

His contact rate off the plate is very low, much more so than usual.

[Falls City Beer]

Three threads on a guy who has put up MVP level numbers but not one on Castillo, a guy who’s touted as an ace, and who has no clue where the ball is going.

Give him a day or two off.

[Mitri]

To me it seems like his timing is just off and he isn't letting the ball get deep enough before swinging, which is why he is waiving at a lot of outside pitches and seemingly pulling off of them.

Agree. But I’m no batting coach.

He needs a mental break, but he also needs reps to work out the kink. Hopefully Bell has more patience than most of RZ.