Is Castillo broken?

[Tony Cloninger]

The Johnson era seems to be going like the Gulley era...some rework success stories, so let's shop at Odd Lots, save some money and Gulley will turn s$&t into Shinola. Same failed strategy in play now?

All they need is to bring in a Pete Shourek.

One thing those 1994 through even into 2004 teams had though was a better more durable bullpen. At least 2-3 guys who could go 2 innings and not be tired and unable to pitch for another 3 days. Definitely 1.

[forfreelin04]

The solution is not to start him till the 2nd inning. His 1st inning numbers are ... 16.88 ERA with 18 runs allowed (15 earned).

Well said. I gotta wonder about the bullpen coach. Seems like every damn one of them coming out of there can't get the ball over the plate.

Colorado Series: 7 walks in 1st game, 6 walks in second game. I feel like that isn't getting enough pub, just my two cents.

[Kc61]

If you want to be more optimistic about Luis, here’s your argument -

Castillo’s ERA (astronomical) is completely out of whack compared with his actual pitching performance (so-so).

ERA -7.71
XERA - 4.75
FIP -4.77
XFIP - 4.25
FWAR -+0.2
SIERA- 4.44

One reason why his ERA is inflated is an incredibly high BABIP, 3.80. Would appear, in part, to be bad defense and/or bad luck. It’s not all LD rate, 22.5%, or hard hit % (Fangraphs says lower than last year). Lots of balls falling in.

Luis is functioning, essentially, like a ground ball pitcher with a low K rate. GB rate over 51%. As we know, that type of pitcher is volatile, doesn’t miss enough bats, dependent on grounders and fielders.

Take a look at Luis’ 2018 stats. These are similar to now, low K rate, low walk rate, high HR rate compared to his norms. That year he finished with a 4.30 ERA, his BABIP was .100 points lower than 2021.

[757690]

If you want to be more optimistic about Luis, here’s your argument -

Castillo’s ERA (astronomical) is completely out of whack compared with his actual pitching performance (mediocre).

ERA -7.71
XERA - 4.75
FIP -4.77
XFIP - 4.25
FWAR -+0.2
SIERA- 4.44

One reason why his ERA is inflated is incredibly high BABIP, 3.80. Would appear, in part, to be bad defense and/or bad luck. It’s not all LD rate, 22.5%, or hard hit % (Fangraphs says lower than last year). Lots of balls falling in.

Luis is functioning, essentially, like a ground ball pitcher with a low K rate. His GB rate, always on the high side, is still over 51%. As we know, that type of pitcher is volatile, doesn’t miss enough bats.

Take a look at Luis’ 2018 stats. These are similar, low K rate, low walk rate, higher HR rate than normal. That year he finished with a 4.30 ERA.

Nice research, however…

So Castillo might end up being a decent #5 starter this season. Hooray?

[Kc61]

Nice research, however…

So Castillo might end up being a decent #5 starter this season. Hooray?

To get back to form he’ll need to miss more bats. Many more.

But during this “slump” period, if Luis were at 4.30 ERA (as in 2018) it would be much easier to swallow. And Reds would probably have a few more wins.

[forfreelin04]

If you want to be more optimistic about Luis, here’s your argument -

Castillo’s ERA (astronomical) is completely out of whack compared with his actual pitching performance (so-so).

ERA -7.71
XERA - 4.75
FIP -4.77
XFIP - 4.25
FWAR -+0.2
SIERA- 4.44

One reason why his ERA is inflated is an incredibly high BABIP, 3.80. Would appear, in part, to be bad defense and/or bad luck. It’s not all LD rate, 22.5%, or hard hit % (Fangraphs says lower than last year). Lots of balls falling in.

Luis is functioning, essentially, like a ground ball pitcher with a low K rate. GB rate over 51%. As we know, that type of pitcher is volatile, doesn’t miss enough bats, dependent on grounders and fielders.

Take a look at Luis’ 2018 stats. These are similar to now, low K rate, low walk rate, high HR rate compared to his norms. That year he finished with a 4.30 ERA, his BABIP was .100 points lower than 2021.

Thanks for showing "what" has happened by comparing now to when he was lights out at times. But I'm more concerned with "why" it's happening. He can't locate his fastball. Do you have any statistics that back that assertion up? Is his walk rate up from previous years? Has he thrown more of his changeup in the zone compared to past years?

Not trying to be sarcastic here. I'm actually curious.

[Kc61]

Thanks for showing "what" has happened by comparing now to when he was lights out at times. But I'm more concerned with "why" it's happening. He can't locate his fastball. Do you have any statistics that back that assertion up? Is his walk rate up from previous years? Has he thrown more of his changeup in the zone compared to past years?

Not trying to be sarcastic here. I'm actually curious.

I can’t summarize it all without repeating previous posts in detail. You might just read through this thread. There are good articles on it too, on the internet.

The basic problem is reduced fastball effectiveness, especially his sinking fastball. Fangraphs stats show his fastball value has meaningfully declined. He’s relying more heavily on his changeup and perhaps batters know that’s coming.

[forfreelin04]

I can’t summarize it all without repeating previous posts in detail. You might just read through this thread. There are good articles on it too, on the internet.

The basic problem is reduced fastball effectiveness, especially his sinking fastball. Fangraphs shows his fastball value to have declined. He’s relying more heavily on his changeup and perhaps batters now know that’s coming.

Do the fangraph stats allude to why his fastball has declined? Location? Velocity?

[Kc61]

Do the fangraph stats allude to why his fastball has declined? Location? Velocity?

Fangraphs charts say fastball is about 1 mph less this season, both 4 seamer and sinker. I’ve also read that Castillo is getting too much of the plate this year on some of his pitches. So it could be both his “stuff” and his location.

What I haven’t read about is some underlying cause - for example, whether his pitching mechanics are notably different than in the past. Whether he is tipping off his pitches. Whether there is some other consideration, like injury.

[mgbrown66]

Oooooh the anticipation for tonight is PALPABLE!

My money is on broken tonight, but then I'm a glass is half full of shards kind of Reds fan. I get it from reading this board.

[DocRed]

I sent Luis a link to this thread to motivate him tonight...fingers crossed!

[DocRed]

Didn't work....bleh. Castillo is broken in half...something needs to be done

[Tom Servo]

Probably his best game besides the Pirates start, which isn’t saying much but it was tangible improvement over recent starts.

[Griffey012]

Didn't work....bleh. Castillo is broken in half...something needs to be done

He struck out 11 in 5 IP, giving up 3 ER. Certainly a promising development from Castillo.

It does seem odd to me that most of his struggles were to start an inning, and he has also struggled a lot in the first inning this year.

[Tom Servo]

He struck out 11 in 5 IP, giving up 3 ER. Certainly a promising development from Castillo.

It does seem odd to me that most of his struggles were to start an inning, and he has also struggled a lot in the first inning this year.

Yeah this really was more like a 'bad' start from pre-2021 Castillo. If he can get back to striking out guys like this he should be fine, the 7.0 K/9 Castillo was a problem.