REDREAD (05-19-2021),traderumor (05-15-2021)
Old school 1983 (05-15-2021)
If you want to be more optimistic about Luis, here’s your argument -
Castillo’s ERA (astronomical) is completely out of whack compared with his actual pitching performance (so-so).
ERA -7.71
XERA - 4.75
FIP -4.77
XFIP - 4.25
FWAR -+0.2
SIERA- 4.44
One reason why his ERA is inflated is an incredibly high BABIP, 3.80. Would appear, in part, to be bad defense and/or bad luck. It’s not all LD rate, 22.5%, or hard hit % (Fangraphs says lower than last year). Lots of balls falling in.
Luis is functioning, essentially, like a ground ball pitcher with a low K rate. GB rate over 51%. As we know, that type of pitcher is volatile, doesn’t miss enough bats, dependent on grounders and fielders.
Take a look at Luis’ 2018 stats. These are similar to now, low K rate, low walk rate, high HR rate compared to his norms. That year he finished with a 4.30 ERA, his BABIP was .100 points lower than 2021.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-15-2021 at 05:32 PM.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-15-2021 at 05:40 PM.
757690 (05-15-2021),forfreelin04 (05-15-2021),RedEye (05-15-2021)
Thanks for showing "what" has happened by comparing now to when he was lights out at times. But I'm more concerned with "why" it's happening. He can't locate his fastball. Do you have any statistics that back that assertion up? Is his walk rate up from previous years? Has he thrown more of his changeup in the zone compared to past years?
Not trying to be sarcastic here. I'm actually curious.
I can’t summarize it all without repeating previous posts in detail. You might just read through this thread. There are good articles on it too, on the internet.
The basic problem is reduced fastball effectiveness, especially his sinking fastball. Fangraphs stats show his fastball value has meaningfully declined. He’s relying more heavily on his changeup and perhaps batters know that’s coming.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-15-2021 at 07:23 PM.
forfreelin04 (05-15-2021)
Fangraphs charts say fastball is about 1 mph less this season, both 4 seamer and sinker. I’ve also read that Castillo is getting too much of the plate this year on some of his pitches. So it could be both his “stuff” and his location.
What I haven’t read about is some underlying cause - for example, whether his pitching mechanics are notably different than in the past. Whether he is tipping off his pitches. Whether there is some other consideration, like injury.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-15-2021 at 09:21 PM.
forfreelin04 (05-18-2021)
Oooooh the anticipation for tonight is PALPABLE!
My money is on broken tonight, but then I'm a glass is half full of shards kind of Reds fan. I get it from reading this board.
I sent Luis a link to this thread to motivate him tonight...fingers crossed!
RedTeamGo! (05-18-2021),TexasRedsFan (05-18-2021)
Didn't work....bleh. Castillo is broken in half...something needs to be done
Probably his best game besides the Pirates start, which isn’t saying much but it was tangible improvement over recent starts.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
Mitri (05-18-2021),Ron Madden (05-19-2021)
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
GAC (05-19-2021),Ron Madden (05-19-2021)
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
Griffey012 (05-18-2021)
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