Is Castillo broken?

[Roy Tucker]

There is literally a Suarez is broken thread, lol.

I had to reread the last few pages of this thread a couple times to make sure it was a Castillo and not Suarez thread.

[REDREAD]

Honestly, I think potential distorts performance so much in sports that it prevents teams from making moves that overall help a franchise.

If he continues to lose every 5th game and tax the pen, then the Reds will be 5-6 games back and guess what? Season’s over by June 1st.

And i could understand keeping him in the rotation if they had no other rotation alternatives. But they definitely do have a rotation alternative.

I know I am responding to this a few days later, but as of today, we are already 3.5 games out. The team is pretty inconsistent.
Offense kills it at home, generally struggles on the road. Bullpen is unreliable. We've had some starting pitchers over achieve and some underachieve.

At this point, the only tweek to be considered really is putting Farmer at SS and resuffling the infield (as they are forced to do now, with Votto hurt) Not saying that is a good idea or not, but an option that might help. Not sure anything else is going to make an impact.

I think shuffling the pitching roles around now isn't going to help. We have to hope the over achievers like Hoffman and Miley keep over achieving and guys like Suarez and Castillo turn it around. In other words, go for the max upside.

[Kc61]

My issue is 2020 being referenced as a full season. It was 60 games. It’s 1/3 of a normal season. Suarez had 10 bad games which heavily effected his season. It’s dumb.

Literally nobody is saying 2020 was a full season. You don’t like the word “season?’ Let’s call it the 2020 Non-season.

For the 2020 Non-season and the 2021 season so far, combined, that’s 365 PAs and 317 ABs, Suarez has a BA of .177 and an OBP of .279. The period also includes two deep slumps.

All of that happened. All in the books, as they say. Even with good power, it’s not what I’m looking for.

[JFLegal]

Literally nobody is saying 2020 was a full season. You don’t like the word “season?’ Let’s call it the 2020 Non-season.

For the 2020 Non-season and the 2021 season so far, combined, that’s 365 PAs and 317 ABs, Suarez has a BA of .177 and an OBP of .279. The period also includes two deep slumps.

All of that happened. All in the books, as they say. Even with good power, it’s not what I’m looking for.

2019 happened, too. i put a lot more stock in a full season that happened just 2 years ago than i do the 35% or whatever of a season we got last year.

[Kc61]

2019 happened, too. i put a lot more stock in a full season that happened just 2 years ago than i do the 35% or whatever of a season we got last year.

That’s fine. I disagree because it’s two years ago. I’d never evaluate an athlete’s current ability based on two-year old performance. Maybe we can see a hint of his current high K rate trend in 2019, when ES led NL with 189 Ks.

It’s not my benchmark, but if it’s yours, no problem.

[Patrick Bateman]

Literally nobody is saying 2020 was a full season. You don’t like the word “season?’ Let’s call it the 2020 Non-season.

For the 2020 Non-season and the 2021 season so far, combined, that’s 365 PAs and 317 ABs, Suarez has a BA of .177 and an OBP of .279. The period also includes two deep slumps.

All of that happened. All in the books, as they say. Even with good power, it’s not what I’m looking for.

Pre 2020 Suarez got sufficient hits and walks where I don't think he fits into that mould of being a highly volatile and inconsistent player.

Some thing changed last year, and is really a matter of quality of contact. I've been reviewing statcast data to try and understand, and the only really discernable item that went down substantially in 2020 was his "sweet spot %" down from 40% to 30% of batted balls. This is defined as: "a batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees".

In 2021, this trend has continued, in addition to the alarming increase in Ks. His launch angle hasn't been increasing, so its not a guy who has suddenly added an extreme uppercut to trade singles for homers.

He's just not been squaring up consistently for 320 at-bats. It is scaring me, and I would suggest its linked to the shoulder issues and just not quite having the same pre-injury bat speed to make precise swings. He still has sufficient strength to lift the ball over the fence when he gets the ball elevated, but his precision is really lacking, and now looks like its turning to a confidence issue.

Reds need to probably give him more rest, mix things up, and hope a combination of time, and head space improves things. Either that or he is going to have to make some adjustments to trade in some power for contact to increase his ability to square up with less force on his swings.

[Moose Herd]

That’s fine. I disagree because it’s two years ago. I’d never evaluate an athlete’s current ability based on two-year old performance. Maybe we can see the beginning of his current high K rate trend in 2019, when ES led NL with 189 Ks.

It’s not my benchmark, but if it’s yours, ok.

Three year averages are pretty standard sample sizes to look at if you're trying to project forward. Trying to take 80 games and make it mean something doesn't really work for me. If it does for you, ok.

[Kc61]

Pre 2020 Suarez got sufficient hits and walks where I don't think he fits into that mould of being a highly volatile and inconsistent player.

Some thing changed last year, and is really a matter of quality of contact. I've been reviewing statcast data to try and understand, and the only really discernable item that went down substantially in 2020 was his "sweet spot %" down from 40% to 30% of batted balls. This is defined as: "a batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees".

In 2021, this trend has continued, in addition to the alarming increase in Ks. His launch angle hasn't been increasing, so its not a guy who has suddenly added an extreme uppercut to trade singles for homers.

He's just not been squaring up consistently for 320 at-bats. It is scaring me, and I would suggest its linked to the shoulder issues and just not quite having the same pre-injury bat speed to make precise swings. He still has sufficient strength to lift the ball over the fence when he gets the ball elevated, but his precision is really lacking, and now looks like its turning to a confidence issue.

Reds need to probably give him more rest, mix things up, and hope a combination of time, and head space improves things. Either that or he is going to have to make some adjustments to trade in some power for contact to increase his ability to square up with less force on his swings.

My own thought is that after a 49 HR season in 2019, Suarez is now (maybe unintentionally) selling out for power. One can see him pull off the ball. On the occasions when he hits well, his torso and head remain in, and he probably follows the ball much more readily.

I doubt this is conscious, it’s just a tendency he’s developed. And yes, it showed up in the 2020 Non-season.

[Mitri]

Three year averages are pretty standard sample sizes to look at if you're trying to project forward. Trying to take 80 games and make it mean something doesn't really work for me. If it does for you, ok.

Really?

Just a reminder:

From May 27, 2019-June 30th, 2019 Geno had a .584 OPS in 119 plate appearances. From July 1 to the end of the season he had a 1.071 OPS.

It's not like we haven't been here before with him.

LOL, you literally cherry-pick numbers to make a point in every other post you make.

[Kc61]

Three year averages are pretty standard sample sizes to look at if you're trying to project forward. Trying to take 80 games and make it mean something doesn't really work for me. If it does for you, ok.

Let me put it this way.

Suarez had a deep slump in early 2020 from which he had to fight back.

He’s had a deep slump in early 2021 from which he has to fight back.

If I were the Reds’ FO, I’d have a problem with this. He’s expensive (by Reds’ terms) and hits in the middle of my batting order.

Seems like a great guy, I’m rooting for him, but . . . .

[Moose Herd]

Really?



LOL, you literally cherry-pick numbers to make a point in every other post you make.

It's showing that these slumps aren't indicative of what he's going to be doing moving forward.

As for cherry picking stats, you really can go look on baseball-reference.com and see where slumps/hot streaks stop and start.

[Kc61]

It's showing that these slumps aren't indicative of what he's going to be doing moving forward.

As for cherry picking stats, you really can go look on baseball-reference.com and see where slumps/hot streaks stop and start.

Show me the stat that leads to a recovery in his K rate. He led the league in Ks in 2019. He also leads in 2021.

And even if there is a recovery, I’m still not sure it’s a pattern I want. Deep, deep slumps followed by a fight to get to .202 and .781 or however high he could realistically go.

I think we’ve all said our peace on this, I certainly wish Suarez good luck and am rooting for him.

[RedTeamGo!]

Let me put it this way.

Suarez had a deep slump in early 2020 from which he had to fight back.

He’s had a deep slump in early 2021 from which he has to fight back.

If I were the Reds’ FO, I’d have a problem with this. He’s expensive (by Reds’ terms) and hits in the middle of my batting order.

Seems like a great guy, I’m rooting for him, but . . . .

The “deep slump” in “early 2020” was 10 games.

[Falls City Beer]

I know I am responding to this a few days later, but as of today, we are already 3.5 games out. The team is pretty inconsistent.
Offense kills it at home, generally struggles on the road. Bullpen is unreliable. We've had some starting pitchers over achieve and some underachieve.

At this point, the only tweek to be considered really is putting Farmer at SS and resuffling the infield (as they are forced to do now, with Votto hurt) Not saying that is a good idea or not, but an option that might help. Not sure anything else is going to make an impact.

I think shuffling the pitching roles around now isn't going to help. We have to hope the over achievers like Hoffman and Miley keep over achieving and guys like Suarez and Castillo turn it around. In other words, go for the max upside.

I certainly share your doubt about the long-term viability of this year’s team. The Cards look ready to achieve escape velocity and this team has a razor-thin margin for error. That’s a fair argument. Still the Cards have gotten fat on the Rockies and Pirates. I want see how they do against the Brewers before I declare them the class of the division. I guess I just want to buy the Reds some meaningful warm weather ball. But that may not much depend on Castillo’s staying in the rotation.

I think the division got decided when the Reds did nothing in the offseason and watched the Cards pick up an MVP candidate.

[Kc61]

The “deep slump” in “early 2020” was 10 games.

According to the Baseball Reference game logs showing the results of each 2020 game:

Suarez crossed the .600 OPS line in his 26th game, at Milwaukee, August 24, 2020. His line before that game was .149/ .282./.310/.592.

Suarez crossed the .700 OPS line in his 34th game, against St. Louis, August 31, 2020. His line before that game was .174/.298/.393/.691.