Is Castillo broken?

[757690]

I don’t really get the Derek Johnson love TBH. He seems to get all the credit for when things go well and absolutely none of the blame when things go wrong. The bullpen is an absolute disaster. Why does he get no blame for that? There are arms in the pen, but they haven’t improved. Luis Castillo has imploded and Derek Johnson is apparently stumped. On Twitter right now a former Redszoner is going on about Derek Johnson deserves the credit for Gausman and Disco pitching so well in SF. What??? Shouldn’t the Giants, and uh, the pitchers get that credit? I don’t know, I’m starting to question how good DJ actually is. Call me crazy.

Bauer, Gray, Mahle, Miley, Antone, Sims, and Hoffman excelled under Johnson. Castillo is one of the few pitchers that is struggling under him and it’s early.

The pen would be a disaster under any pitching coach, they just aren’t good pitchers.

Anyway, the Reds pitching overall has improved dramatically since Johnson was hired.

[RedTeamGo!]

Bauer, Gray, Mahle, Miley, Antone, Sims, and Hoffman excelled under Johnson. Castillo is one of the few pitchers that is struggling under him and it’s early.

The pen would be a disaster under any pitching coach, they just aren’t good pitchers.

Anyway, the Reds pitching overall has improved dramatically since Johnson was hired.

Hoffman excelled? Antone is a product of driveline. Miley is what he is, has nothing to do with DJ, Sims has taken a step back this year, Bauer and Gray both had really good stretches in their careers before coming to Cincinnati. Bauer was actually quite bad in his first exposure to DJ. Mahle - sure.

[757690]

Hoffman excelled? Antone is a product of driveline. Miley is what he is, has nothing to do with DJ, Sims has taken a step back this year, Bauer and Gray both had really good stretches in their careers before coming to Cincinnati. Bauer was actually quite bad in his first exposure to DJ. Mahle - sure.

Lol, so Johnson gets blamed for every bad pitcher and no credit for any good pitcher… except for Mahle.

Mmmmmmmm, okay.

[RedTeamGo!]

Lol, so Johnson gets blamed for every bad pitcher and no credit for any good pitcher… except for Mahle.

Mmmmmmmm, okay.

How is Hoffman a good pitcher?? Antone has specifically stated he’s a product of driveline. He talks about it all the time.

[757690]

Hoffman had a 9 ERA last year and a near 7 ERA for his career. He now is a solid #5 starter. A definite improvement.

Just because Reds pitchers benefited from driveline doesn’t mean Johnson had nothing to do with their success (or failure)

[RedTeamGo!]

Hoffman had a 9 ERA last year and a near 7 ERA for his career. He now is a solid #5 starter. A definite improvement.

Just because Reds pitchers benefited from driveline doesn’t mean Johnson had nothing to do with their success (or failure)

Hoffman’s FIP is actually identical to last year and as for 2019, he started 15 games that year, if he gets that many this year I’m sure it will be similar. He’s a scrub.

[Kc61]

The pen would be a disaster under any pitching coach, they just aren’t good pitchers.

.

I thought that was my line. (At least for some of them.)

DJ is fine, like him, no problem. But if Reds thought he was a substitute for acquiring and developing top pitching talent, they were mistaken. Talent generally prevails.

[Mitri]

I thought that was my line. (At least for some of them.)

DJ is fine, like him, no problem. But if Reds thought he was a substitute for acquiring and developing top pitching talent, they were mistaken. Talent generally prevails.

Excellent post Kc. Kind of sums up a lot for me and where I stand with this pitching staff.

[757690]

Hoffman’s FIP is actually identical to last year and as for 2019, he started 15 games that year, if he gets that many this year I’m sure it will be similar. He’s a scrub.

Hoffman was a reliever last year. When he was a starter, he stunk no matter what stats you look at. He’s definitely improved this year. I have no idea if Johnson had anything to do with it, but if we’re counting pitchers who have improved under Johnson, chalk Hoffman up as one.

[Wonderful Monds]

I don’t know if I necessarily agree, but I do understand the rationale behind thinking our pitching coaches and development between Johnson and Boddy are a disappointment given how they were billed in contrast to the results.

[fearofpopvol1]

I don’t really get the Derek Johnson love TBH. He seems to get all the credit for when things go well and absolutely none of the blame when things go wrong. The bullpen is an absolute disaster. Why does he get no blame for that? There are arms in the pen, but they haven’t improved. Luis Castillo has imploded and Derek Johnson is apparently stumped. On Twitter right now a former Redszoner is going on about Derek Johnson deserves the credit for Gausman and Disco pitching so well in SF. What??? Shouldn’t the Giants, and uh, the pitchers get that credit? I don’t know, I’m starting to question how good DJ actually is. Call me crazy.

Reds pitching looked pretty strong last year. There have been early struggles this year and no doubt Luis is the most concerning. That said, Derek Johnson isn't God. He can't make bad pitchers good, he can only work with what he's given. I think most of us realize he's way better than those before him (save for maybe Price while he was a pitching coach).

[757690]

I don’t know if I necessarily agree, but I do understand the rationale behind thinking our pitching coaches and development between Johnson and Boddy are a disappointment given how they were billed in contrast to the results.

Not sure I agree with this assessment, but more importantly, Boddy is mostly working with guys in the minors. It’s too early to judge him.

[traderumor]

The Johnson era seems to be going like the Gulley era...some rework success stories, so let's shop at Odd Lots, save some money and Gulley will turn s$&t into Shinola. Same failed strategy in play now?

[GAC]

He has started 8 games and the Reds have been out of it before he's left in 7 of them. But sure, let's blame it on the mountain air.

I don't think he was blaming Castillo's woes on Coors Field. Only that if one wants to give a struggling pitcher a fair assessment, then hitter-happy Coors Field is not the best "environment" to do so.

I don't think he's finished. As Brantley said last night, nearly every pitcher in the history of baseball comes face to face with a moment like this in their careers. It may be that time for Castillo. Maybe he's hurt (doubt it). I think it's a number of factors that have snowballed into a complete meltdown. It's time for him to do more than tweak.

I'm serious when I say he needs to add that Cueto hitch to his delivery. I think his motion is too smooth and has become very easy read.

I have no idea what is wrong with Castillo. Watching him on the mound he doesn't look uncomfortable, like he's laboring, nor give any indication he may be hurt. They say he's lost some speed on his fastball. But is that really the cause of his problem? His speed this year is 95.7. Last year it was 97.5, but it "spiked" across the board due to a shortened schedule of 60 games. Not a reliable gauge IMO. If you go by '19, which was 96.5, then he's lost less then a mph off his fb.

But even in the shortened '20 season he had his ups and downs (terrible August). I've viewed Castillo as a good pitcher, a #2 or #3 in the rotation. But not Ace material. We're not deaing with some young prospect anymore. He turns 29 after this season.

But his strikeout rate has alarmingly dropped from 28.9% (2019) to 17.8% currently. He's also not having too much luck with his changeup either. Watching him, It's still all about location, location, location - and he's leaving too many pitches up in the zone.

Is the erratic weather/cold a factor?

He is relying far more on his changeup and 4 seamer this year. No faith in his sinker, slider?

[REDREAD]

Castillo on FG has the worst ERA in baseball for starters by a 1.5 runs at 7.71. Next worse is Patrick Corbin 6.19. Somehow Luis's fWAR is 0.2 on there. How is his possible? His xFIP xERA and FIP are all under 4.77 though so I guess that's why. His bWAR is -1.0 btw.

I am not an expert on fWAR, but I think pitchers get "positive points" for strikeouts, that probably helps Castillo. I am not positive, but maybe fWAR is also one of those systems that considers giving up a HR "luck based" and does not penalize the pitcher as much -- this is just a guess.