If that’s the best defense this whole remove Castillo from the rotation thing is a bad argument.Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
If that’s the best defense this whole remove Castillo from the rotation thing is a bad argument.
Last edited by Griffey012; 05-09-2021 at 06:44 PM.
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
The plan for Castillo should depend on Reds’ consensus on the nature of his problem.
Injury? Mechanics? Mix of pitches? League has figured him out? Can’t pitch in cold weather? Bad luck? Bad defense behind him? Regular old slump? More serious decline in his stuff?
Most of these are curable but seems like the thing to figure out in the first instance.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-09-2021 at 06:49 PM.
Don’t act like the 5th rotation slot isn’t a revolving door. Who knows? But they’ve already rotated JDL in and out.
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It would be a bad argument if the Reds didn’t have Antone to step in right now. As it turns out, they do.
You’re asking probably the worst franchise on earth for fixing pitchers to fix a pitcher.
They replaced JDL with Sonny Gray.
You say taking Castillo out of the rotation makes sense because Antone is ready to step in, but you’re also saying it makes sense to take Hoffman out of the rotation eventually, even though the Reds don’t have anyone to replace him.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Old school 1983 (05-10-2021)
Castillo is 28 with a 3.79 ERA in over 550 career innings. It’s a bad argument unless they have 5 better options than a fully functioning Castillo. Their current #5 pitcher is barely functioning better than the struggling Castillo and has an awful track record.
It’s a bad argument. The Reds are much better if the usual Castillo reappears. There’s also nothing to say he would succeed in a bullpen role. His struggles haven’t been relegated to 2nd or 3rd time through this season.
Last edited by Griffey012; 05-09-2021 at 07:10 PM.
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
M2 (05-09-2021),Old school 1983 (05-10-2021)
Because it’s the 5th starter slot. It’s not like the Reds had a plan for that slot when the season opened. It was the proverbial “Throw it against the wall and see what sticks.”They replaced JDL with Sonny Gray.
You say taking Castillo out of the rotation makes sense because Antone is ready to step in, but you’re also saying it makes sense to take Hoffman out of the rotation eventually, even though the Reds don’t have anyone to replace him.
His pitch repertoire suggests the bullpen could at least be a place to win back some confidence. Let’s say he gets through May with similar results. How much confidence will he have at that point? Though I’m sure they will phantom IL him by that point.
It’s possible that even had Castillo been his last two seasons self the Reds were doomed for failure. I predicted 70 wins. But the division certainly looks tighter than I would have guessed. I just want to watch meaningful baseball past June 1st.
Last edited by Falls City Beer; 05-09-2021 at 07:12 PM.
His ERA of near 10 first time through suggests he wouldn’t do well in the bullpen right now. If he’s still struggling through the end of May it’ll be time to re-evaluate. That would be an extended amount of struggles we have never seen from Castillo. We have seen some rough patches in his career.
I’ll be really concerned if the weather is warm, humidity is high, and he’s still giving up a ton of hits and not inducing the swings and misses like usual.
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
My concern with this rationale is that 1) Castillo was 3 years younger then, in his prime physically, 2) I feel like the league is very different now than it was only 3 years ago. Guys are used to "sits at 97". The book is out on Castillo's pitch mix.
Yes, plenty of good pitches recover from bad starts to seasons, or very bad stretches mid-season. Castillo's blip isn't even all that pronounced...yet. But the league always catches up with all but the truly elite players, forcing players to reinvent. I'm wondering if it may be time for Luis to think about reinventing his game. He'll need a new wrinkle to keep pitching at a high level.
If nothing else, I’d certainly like to see something like an adjustment to his arsenal. Hell even just working more quickly. But every start has been nearly identical.
It would be one thing if his numbers were skewed by 2 or even 3 bad starts. He’s been consistently really really bad.
Last edited by Falls City Beer; 05-09-2021 at 07:27 PM.
Mitri (05-09-2021)
If he gets hot when the weather warms up, they could either:
a) deal him in the offseason
or
b) build a retractable dome stadium like they should have done in the first place
I'm hoping for "b".
"Lemonade requires a significant amount of sugar. Otherwise, you've just made lemon juice."
REDREAD (05-11-2021),RedTeamGo! (05-09-2021)
Did Castillo work primarily with Casalli over the past couple of seasons? Could the adjustment to a new catcher be part of the issue.
I am certainly not trying to imply that because he opened 2018 with struggles and worked out okay that it is a given that will be the case this year. His whole body of work is just reason enough to give him a muuuuch longer leash than 7 starts. There are some recent trends that I see that both point to greener pastures and others that raise a brow as cause for some concern.
Positives:
EVs are roughly the same. Average is elevated this season, but LA, Barrel%, and Hard Hit rate are all good. His ERA is 1.65 higher than his xERA.
BABIP against is .357, even last year it was .329 and he performed great
LOB% is 54%, it has been 70-80% his entire career
FB velo has been in the 96-97 range the past two starts, which is in line with career norms after it started out slower early on
His defense has largely let him down this season
Negatives:
His changeup has a negative pitch value and was barely positive in 2020, this is after 3 seasons of it being a standout pitch.
His fastball has been a very hittable pitch this year after being an above average pitch for the past two seasons.
I definitely think there is some concern that the book is out on Castillo based on the change-up being less valuable in 2020 and now 2021, which in turn impacts the fastball and maybe he needs to reinvent his pitch mix a bit. It could also just be the weather playing a big role in the movement of his FB/CHG combo. The point is, there is no reason to do something dramatic like moving him to the bullpen unless we are really certain he is just no longer what he once was.
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
*BaseClogger* (05-10-2021),Mitri (05-09-2021)
The logical pretzels you ties yourself in to justify your positions always fascinate me
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
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