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Thread: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

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    JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    I'll take advantage of the weekly Monday off-day to post a performance based (not reputation based) top 20 prospects list. It'll be a little wacky at first, but hopefully by end of year it's where we want it.

    1. Mark Kolosvary - C - AA - Mark is hitting an incredible .636 with a .750 OBP and a 2.295 OPS. Greatest hitting catcher since Piazza?
    2. Broxton Roxby - RP - High A - Besides sporting a 0.00 ERA, Broxton has struck out 6 of the 7 outs he has recorded. 85%. No BB's. Records last out in division clinching game this year?
    3. Nick Lodolo - SP - AA - 0.00 ERA, no walks and 10Ks in 5 innings. 67% strikeout rate.
    4. Alex McGarry - 1B - Low A. .375 Average, .500 OBP and 1.625 OPS. Votto replacement. Probably about July.
    5. Leonardo Rivas - 2b - AA - .600 average, .650 OBP and 1.567 OPS. Angels had Pujols replacement all along and let him slip thru their fingers.
    6. Allan Cerda - CF - Low A - .389 Average, .500 OBP and 1.444 OPS. Reds future in CF is locked down.
    7. Brian Rey - 2b - Hi A - Mundane .333 Average and .318 OBP but 4 homers has him with 1.318 OPS. Blocked by Rivas and is probably trade bait.
    8. Vlad Gutierrez - SP - AAA - 0.00 ERA, 1 hit and 6 K's in 6 innings.
    9. Danny Lantigua - RF - Low A - .474 average .500 OBP and 1.289 OPS. Who cares if Castellanos opts out?
    10. Chuckie Robinson - C - AA - 500 Average, .571 OBP, 1.239 OPS. 2nd best catcher in Minor league baseball yet can't crack the starting lineup.
    11. Nick Howard - RP - AA - 0.00 ERA, 5 K's and 0 Walks in 5.1 innings. Signed as minor league FA. We should have drafted a guy like this.
    12. Francis Peguero - RP - Hi A - 0.00 ERA, 2 innings, 0 hits, 3 K's.
    13. Tanner Cooper - RP - Low A - 0.00 ERA, 3.1 innings , 0 hits, 4 K's
    14. Tony Santillan - SP - AAA - 0.00 ERA. 4.0 innings, 7 K's. Did give up unearned run, so may not be long for this list.
    15. Shane Carle - RP - AAA - 0.00 ERA. 2 innings, 0 hits or walks. 4 K's.
    16. Alfredo Rodriguez - SS - AAA - .417 Average, .588 OBP, 1.172 OPS. Starts Friday at SS after Farmer DFA.
    17. Jose Garcia - SS - AA - .304 Average, .429 OBP, 1.168 OPS. Blocked by Rodriguez
    18. Jake Gozzo - RP - High A - 0.00 ERA. 2 innings, 1 hit, 4 K's
    19. Michael Byrne - RP - 0.00 ERA. 3 innings, 1 hit, only 2 K's. List getting dodgy.
    20. Reiver Sanmartin - SP - AA - 0.00 ERA. 7 innings, 2 hits, 6 K's.

    Sorry pitchers - We have high standards. If you don't sport a 0.00 ERA, you don't make this week's list. No participation trophies.
    Last edited by JaxRed; 05-11-2021 at 12:20 AM.
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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    Now this is a great idea.

    Curious to see how it lines up at the end of the season with the usual top 20 lists.

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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    Love it Jax. Good idea.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    Those comments-- nice.

    Couple questions:

    1. Who has a chance of sticking all season long? I've got Garcia, Lodolo, Santillan, and... Roxby? Cerda and Lantigua might as well, depending on how much others struggle.

    2. If you had told me Greene didn't make this list after his opening night, I'd have called you crazy, yet he truly doesn't belong. Crazy good pitching numbers so far from a variety of arms.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 05-11-2021 at 07:19 AM.

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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    Greene had the audacity to give up an earned run. I'm hoping Roxby turns into real prospect. I think you'd add Gutierrez to your list.

    Edit: Maybe Howard too. The arm was always there just the head was off. If he's cured the Yips it could be game on.
    Last edited by JaxRed; 05-11-2021 at 09:15 AM.
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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    Great thread!

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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    Legitimately excited to follow this. Thanks for doing this and �� at the comments.

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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    Man, I want Nick Howard to succeed so badly. That dude has had such a tough road.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    “Blocked by Rodriguez” pretty funny line.

    Maybe both Garcia and Rodriguez find their way to Reds later in the season.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-12-2021 at 08:25 AM.

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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    C Trent had some notes on Howard...who had such a rough time he couldn't even play catch with teammates.

    Howard came back to the Reds this offseason. He worked his way through his troubles on the mound and regained his command and velocity thanks to work at the Florida Baseball Ranch. When the Reds reached out to him about returning, it was an easy decision, in part because he knew so many in the Reds organization and he wanted to prove them right.
    Looks like he is back and throwing 97 again...

    “Honestly I never really had a season where I’ve had my stuff and I’m just kinda excited to kind of go out there and see what I can do,” Howard said. “I’ve always gone through those seasons almost surviving in a way instead of pitching. That’s kind of where my focus is at. I’m more so just excited to kind of go back out there with my full arsenal and do what I know I’m capable of.”
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5 View Post
    C Trent had some notes on Howard...who had such a rough time he couldn't even play catch with teammates.

    Looks like he is back and throwing 97 again...
    Wouldn't shock me if he eventually makes it to the majors, seems like a somewhat familiar story of guy who washed out but clawed his way back. Would be more surprising if he sticks.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    Some observations from the week ending 5/16:

    'Tuga Topics:

    - Tyler Callihan is starting to show his hit tool. He's also really promising in some other peripherals. Four SBs so far auger either a high baseball IQ or (similar to Nick Senzel) underrated speed. 5 BBs to 3 Ks indicated he's not overmatched as at low A as a 20-year-old. 3 errors at 2B in 9 games is worrisome. Errors tend to happen in clumps, but there's been concern for Callihan's glove since he was scouted. Reminds me a bit of Gregg Jeffries.

    - Austin Hendrick's recent hot streak augers well for his readiness in low A, but the BBs are a special blessing for guys who are OBP-focused. 9 BBs in 34 PAs is an absolute ton. They help offset his 12 Ks. This is a bit, I'm hoping, of a small sample issue. The Ks are concerning, but the pop is as advertised and the walks are a good sign as well. So, ftr, are his two SBs. I'd love to see the Reds return to the late 80s power and speed skill set that produced pre-knee injury Kal Daniels, Eric Davis, Barry Larkin, and Paul O'Neill.

    - Alex McGarry has only played in five games and has three HR. He's about right for a Votto replacement in terms of climbing the minor league ladder. Just a guy to keep an eye on. So far, he's probably the most successful of the offensive NDFAs signed last season. There will definitely be bargains among those guys throughout baseball. I'm hoping McGarry is one of them.

    Dragon Droppings

    - Brian Rey is challenging for the league Triple Crown 10 games into the season. How good has he been? As good as anyone in the league, obviously. Does that make him a prospect? Well, maybe. This is a hot streak, but Rey has a history of good power. He's apparently a capable CF and 2B with speed. That's also good. He's got to be able to hit .300+ to be a viable first division guy if his current BB rate (less than 5%) continues. That means he'd have to be Jean Segura offensively. That's a high bar, indeed.

    - Lost in the Rey-naissance, Mariel Bautista is also showing out. His 2019 dimmed a bright beginning for the powerful-armed OF. In previous stops (and half-seasons), he'd shown a very good BA and some power and speed. He's on his way to showing that in 2021 once again. What's interesting is that he's not playing every day. Six games played may indicate Red brass aren't as sold on him as the numbers indicate.

    Lookout Notices

    - Alejo Lopez doesn't deserve to be in AA. He needs to be challenged (or traded). But the Reds have a glut of guys in AAA who happen to play middle infield. He's played 3B as well, but again, lots of guys in Louisville who play that spot. 2B might be the most stacked position among Red prospects. India and Senzel can play the spot at the major league level (as can Moustakas). Blandino and Farmer are also 2B-capable backups. Dayton has Rey (and Johnathan Willems). Daytona has the aforementioned Callihan, Gus Steiger, and eventually Ivan Johnson. Louisville has... Brantley Bell. And Erroll Robinson. And Michael De Leon. That logjam will eventually ease. At that point, it will be fascinating to see the musical chairs of promotion.

    - Speaking of promotions, Jose Garcia deserves to be in Louisville, but Chattanooga might be a better place for his development. He plays around other (better) prospects, learns how to win (relatively speaking), and sees pitching nearly as good. I'd love to see his exit velocities. Currently, Garcia is leading his league in HR and RBI. How nice is that from a SS? I'd also like to see him tighten up his glove. (3rd error last night.) Many minor league errors are due to field conditions, poor lighting, and relatively poor 1B help, but Garcia needs to be elite, if only because I tire of arguing how relatively unimportant defense is at the major league level.

    - Mark Kolozsvary is playing softball in a baseball league. He's come out of nowhere to hit well for two series. I do wonder if we'll see more of this type of prospect explosion after the missed season. I do wonder how many guys are going to get noticed because they were able to put in work on their swings for an entire year. It makes sense that catchers would benefit (and older prospects), as they're so often bogged down with all the minutiae of the pitching staff and defense work that they don't have as much time (or energy) to work. There are only so many hours in a day for catchers. (Well, for all of us.)

    Bat Bombs

    - The Bats are bad. That's undeniable. The pitching's been okay, though. Santillan, O'Brien, and Gutierrez are interesting enough. Takahashi is perfectly cromulent as a fourth starter. Alaniz, Carle, and Brach have shown out a bit. Phillip Diehl's okay too. But man, have their other guys been horrid. It's truly a tale of Jekyll and Hyde performances so far.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 05-16-2021 at 02:27 PM.

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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Some observations from the week ending 5/16:

    'Tuga Topics:

    - Tyler Callihan is starting to show his hit tool. He's also really promising in some other peripherals. Four SBs so far auger either a high baseball IQ or (similar to Nick Senzel) underrated speed. 5 BBs to 3 Ks indicated he's not overmatched as at low A as a 20-year-old. 3 errors at 2B in 9 games is worrisome. Errors tend to happen in clumps, but there's been concern for Callihan's glove since he was scouted. Reminds me a bit of Gregg Jeffries.

    - Austin Hendrick's recent hot streak augers well for his readiness in low A, but the BBs are a special blessing for guys who are OBP-focused. 9 BBs in 34 PAs is an absolute ton. They help offset his 12 Ks. This is a bit, I'm hoping, of a small sample issue. The Ks are concerning, but the pop is as advertised and the walks are a good sign as well. So, ftr, are his two SBs. I'd love to see the Reds return to the late 80s power and speed skill set that produced pre-knee injury Kal Daniels, Eric Davis, Barry Larkin, and Paul O'Neill.

    - Alex McGarry has only played in five games and has three HR. He's about right for a Votto replacement in terms of climbing the minor league ladder. Just a guy to keep an eye on. So far, he's probably the most successful of the offensive NDFAs signed last season. There will definitely be bargains among those guys throughout baseball. I'm hoping McGarry is one of them.

    Dragon Droppings

    - Brian Rey is challenging for the league Triple Crown 10 games into the season. How good has he been? As good as anyone in the league, obviously. Does that make him a prospect? Well, maybe. This is a hot streak, but Rey has a history of good power. He's apparently a capable CF and 2B with speed. That's also good. He's got to be able to hit .300+ to be a viable first division guy if his current BB rate (less than 5%) continues. That means he'd have to be Jean Segura offensively. That's a high bar, indeed.

    - Lost in the Rey-naissance, Mariel Bautista is also showing out. His 2019 dimmed a bright beginning for the powerful-armed OF. In previous stops (and half-seasons), he'd shown a very good BA and some power and speed. He's on his way to showing that in 2021 once again. What's interesting is that he's not playing every day. Six games played may indicate Red brass aren't as sold on him as the numbers indicate.

    Lookout Notices

    - Alejo Lopez doesn't deserve to be in AA. He needs to be challenged (or traded). But the Reds have a glut of guys in AAA who happen to play middle infield. He's played 3B as well, but again, lots of guys in Louisville who play that spot. 2B might be the most stacked position among Red prospects. India and Senzel can play the spot at the major league level (as can Moustakas). Blandino and Farmer are also 2B-capable backups. Dayton has Rey (and Johnathan Willems). Daytona has the aforementioned Callihan, Gus Steiger, and eventually Ivan Johnson. Louisville has... Brantley Bell. And Erroll Robinson. And Michael De Leon. That logjam will eventually ease. At that point, it will be fascinating to see the musical chairs of promotion.

    - Speaking of promotions, Jose Garcia deserves to be in Louisville, but Chattanooga might be a better place for his development. He plays around other (better) prospects, learns how to win (relatively speaking), and sees pitching nearly as good. I'd love to see his exit velocities. Currently, Garcia is leading his league in HR and RBI. How nice is that from a SS? I'd also like to see him tighten up his glove. (3rd error last night.) Many minor league errors are due to field conditions, poor lighting, and relatively poor 1B help, but Garcia needs to be elite, if only because I tire of arguing how relatively unimportant defense is at the major league level.

    - Mark Kolozsvary is playing softball in a baseball league. He's come out of nowhere to hit well for two series. I do wonder if we'll see more of this type of prospect explosion after the missed season. I do wonder how many guys are going to get noticed because they were able to put in work on their swings for an entire year. It makes sense that catchers would benefit (and older prospects), as they're so often bogged down with all the minutiae of the pitching staff and defense work that they don't have as much time (or energy) to work. There are only so many hours in a day for catchers. (Well, for all of us.)

    Bat Bombs

    - The Bats are bad. That's undeniable. The pitching's been okay, though. Santillan, O'Brien, and Gutierrez are interesting enough. Takahashi is perfectly cromulent as a fourth starter. Alaniz, Carle, and Brach have shown out a bit. Phillip Diehl's okay too. But man, have their other guys been horrid. It's truly a tale of Jekyll and Hyde performances so far.
    I've had similar thoughts about Lopez. He is very likely to play in the majors, but it probably won't be with the Reds. Blocked by India who has more power.

    Brian Rey appears to have the complete package. Did he even get a mention as a top prospect?

    To some extent, the Barnhart decision coming at the end of the season will depend on Kolozsvary continuing to produce. IIRC, he was viewed as a defensive catcher previously.

  21. #14
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    India and Senzel are currently just replacement level ballplayers. We hope them to be more in the future, but for now they are what they are. If Lopez can be more than that, the Reds have enough offensive holes they can find a place for him. I have my doubt as to whether he can be more than that. But willing to give him a chance. AAA is almost without any hitting prospects. I'd probably be more aggressive this year.

    I keep waiting for Kolosvary to turn into a pumpkin. Mostly because he hit .188 last time we saw him. I do recall hearing he took Bieber or someone real good deep this spring in a B game, so maybe there is something there.
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    Re: JaxRed's Weekly Monday Off-Day Top Prospect List - Performance Based

    Updated list.

    1. Mark Kolosvary - C - AA - Slumped badly this week with 1.063 OPS but hangs on to stop spot with .519 Avg, .594 OBP and 1.594 OPS.
    2. Brian Rey - 2b - High A - Offended at "blocked by Rivas" tag, raised his OPS this week. .450 Average and .442 OBP, 6 homers and 1.467 OPS
    3. Brad Bach - RP - AAA - Newcomer to the list. Kid probably doesn't even shave yet. 0.00 ERA 5 innings, 2 hits 10/1 strikeout walk ratio.
    4. Pedro Garcia - Low A - Another newcomer and winner of "Most Generic Latin Name" - 0.00 ERA, 6 innings, 4 hits. 9/1 strikeout to walk ratio.
    5. Alex McGarry - 1B - Low A. .333 Average, .464 OBP and 1.274 OPS. Votto replacement. Has already requested #19 when he gets to Cincy. Cheeky.
    6. Jose Garcia - SS - AA - .354 Average, .418 OBP, 1.168 OPS. No longer blocked by Lopez. Wonders "How could I have possibly lost Most Generic Latin Name?"
    7. Hunter Greene - SP - AA. 1.69 ERA 16 innings, 8 hits. Wrestled with this one. Has inflated 1.69 ERA but better than 8/1 strikeouts to walk ratio. I figure with that ERA we'll never hear from him again, so give him a week on the chart before they send him down.
    8. Allan Cerda - CF - Low A - .281 Average, .429 OBP and 1.116OPS. Walks and homers keep OPS high despite average. Of that I am cerda.
    9. Vincent Timpanelli - P - Low A. 4 innings, 0 hits, 6 K's 0.00 ERA. So new to pitching he's still listed as a catcher. As if MiLB thinks the Reds are bluffing.
    10. Nick Howard - RP - AA - 0.00 ERA, 7 K's and 1 Walks in 5.1 innings. Hopes to join Lodolo, Senzel and Castellanos on Reds roster in the nick of time.
    11. Spencer Stockton - RP - High A - 0.00 ERA. 9 innings, 3 hits 6/1 K/BB ration. Borderline call but we like alliteration.
    12. Danny Lantigua - RF - Low A - .410 average .439 OBP and 1.080 OPS. From Dominican Republic. Was SO hoping he was from Antigua.
    13. Leonardo Rivas - 2b - AA - .417 average, .517 OBP and 1.059 OPS. 0 for last 8, so now may be last time we can ask: Mom.... is she into Painters, Turtles or movie stars?
    14. Braxton Roxby - RP - High A - 0.00 ERA, 6 innings, 2 hits 11/3 K/BB ratio. Have to assume he's into X-Men movies.
    15. Alejo Lopez - 2b - AA. .423 Batting average keeping his OPS above 1.000
    16. Michael Byrne - RP - 0.00 ERA. 9 innings, 4 hit, 6/1 K/BB ration. Feel the Byrne, baby.
    17. Carson Rudd - RP - Much internal debate among the staff here. Astronomical ERA of 3.00. But 12/1 K/BB ratio. Can't help it. We're like raccoons looking at a shiny object.
    18. Reiver Sanmartin - SP - AA - 0.75 ERA. 12 innings, 5 hits.
    19. James Proctor - SP - Low A - 0.74 ERA 12 innings, 8 hits, 16 K's.
    20. Tanner Cooper - RP - Low A - 1.23 ERA. 7 innings 1 hit. That's how he made the list. He's hit more guys than he's allowed hits.

    Batters were the ones punished by arbitrary number this week. If you were below 1.000 OPS you were dead to me.
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