Sell?

[Sea Ray]

The Reds definitely should be sellers. There's no question about that anymore. The problem is will they get value? If we trade them like we did Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman then what's the point? It's not enough to say "trade so and so". It all depends on the return. I'd be very hesitant to trade Winker but everyone has a price.

[REDREAD]

Keep Winker. Hang onto Castillo and Suarez, at least until the winter. Maybe they can regain value as the season plays out.

I would definitely trade Castellanos and Barnhart. Those two are gone in 22 and should bring back good prospects. Hopefully the Reds can eat some of the money left for this season and get better returns.

I would explore trading Gray, especially if he puts together a nice string of ace-like starts in June. I'd also be fine hanging onto Sonny and just moving Miley instead. Reds have to be careful not to put too much reliance on the young arms in the 2nd half of this season and the beginning of 22. Then again, the hope is that some young, controllable pitching will be coming back in trades.

Agreed. I would add.. If Miley returns from injury and is still very effective, he might be another guy to shop around.
The team option for next year is really perfect for trading.. he can be marketed to teams that want short term and long term solutions.
Would Miley bring back a King's Ransom? Probably not, but a smart GM could get something to help the future from him.
I just remember how ultimately the return from trading Leake helped us a lot more than the return of trading Cueto.
Sometimes, trading the medium guys pays off.

Ok, now I see that you mentioned Miley too... So I am just adding to your commentary..

[MikeS21]

I'd sell the ownership group.

Except the next set of owners bring no guarantees of a change in philosophy. Owners own baseball teams to make money, and waiting around until they sell the team is a huge gamble, especially with the way MLB is shooting itself in the foot with the idiotic decisions being made in the name of "improving" the game.

As far as the Reds this summer, the goal should not be to create a hole in the lineup in order to fill another hole. Nor should short-term quick fixes be made, where you need to turn around and re-fix a position this off-season.

It is frustrating to watch Castillo and Gray struggle as they are this season. But it is a reminder that even if you trade away folks like Winker and Castellanos for pitching rotation help, the new pitchers run the same risk of struggling. The fact is, the pitchers who truly are the solid starters we want, are not going to be traded.

[mth123]

We can all read the standings, the reds are one of the worst teams in the NL and the gap is widening in both the division and wild card. The team has suffered key injuries and the backups are, well, backups. Castillo being the worst starting in pitcher in MLB is the cherry on top. Now, sure, the reds could go on a tear and win like 20 of 28 games or something, but if we’re being honest with ourselves that is unlikely. It’s more like the reds continue to lose 2 of 3 games or so as we move deeper into summer. This all adds up to a lost season. Now, I’d prefer not to argue the merits of selling or not, it’s tired. We are nearly to June and the deadline will be here before we know it. I was reading an mlb.com article about the Twins potentially fire selling and their GM, a Billy Beane disciple, was quoted saying Beane always said GM’s should look at the season in 3 chunks: the first two months are where you assess your team, the middle two months are when you make trades and changes to the roster, and the final two months you just sit back and watch how it all plays out. We are almost through the assessment period, and the writing is on the wall.

With that said, IF the reds continue to spiral, who you selling at the deadline?

Castellanos for two highly regarded prospects.
Barnhart for a Santillanish/Vladish type prospect.
Miley for a Santillanish/Vladish prospect.
Doolittle and Naquin for the best prospect you can get.
Lorenzen if he can show health by July

Targeted young players - 4 or 5 tool OF who has the arm and defense for RF, Middle Infielders who can hit and field, Pitching.

Do not sell low on Suarez or Castillo. Keep Winker and sign him. Keep Gray at least until the deadline of the 2022 season. .Throw in if necessary: De Leon, Alf, Farmer, Hembree, Feliz, Blandino Brach, minor leaguers who aren't in the top 10 prospects in the organization.

2022 Reds

C Stephenson
1B Votto (sometimes DH)
2b India and prospects acquired
SS Garcia and prospects acquired
3B Moustakas (Sometimes 1B and DH)
LF Winker
CF Senzel/Shogo
RF New guy acquired in trade
DH Suarez (sometimes 3B)

The Wildcard is Aquino. He night be a trade piece, he might be platoon bat or RH PH or as OF Insurance policy.

Rotation: Gray, Antone, Castillo, Mahle, Greene, Lodolo

Bullpen Hendrix, Garrett, Sims, Santillan, Gutierrez, O'Brien, Perez, Lorenzen if still around, Acquisitions

[DocRed]

Castellanos for two highly regarded prospects.
Barnhart for a Santillanish/Vladish type prospect.
Miley for a Santillanish/Vkladish prospect.
Doolittle and Naquin for the best prospect you can get.
Lorenzen if he can show health by July

Targeted young players - 4 or 5 tool OF who has the arm and defense for RF, Middle Infielders who can hit and field, Pitching.

Do not sell low on Suarez or Castillo. Keep Winker and sign him. Keep Gray at least until the deadline of the 2022 season. .Throw in if necessary: De Leon, Alf, Farmer, Hembree, Feliz, Blandino Brach, minor leaguers who aren't in the top 10 prospects in the organization.

2022 Reds

C Stephenson
1B Votto (sometimes DH)
2b India and prospects acquired
SS Garcia and prospects acquired
3B Moustakas (Sometimes 1B and DH)
LF Winker
CF Senzel/Shogo
RF New guy acquired in trade
DH Suarez (sometimes 3B)

The Wildcard is Aquino. He night be a trade piece, he might be platoon bat or RH PH or as OF Insurance policy.

Rotation: Gray, Antone, Castillo, Mahle, Greene, Lodolo

Bullpen Hendrix, Garrett, Sims, Santillan, Gutierrez, O'Brien, Perez, Lorenzen if still around, Acquisitions

Doolittle is allowing 83.3% of inherited runners to score this year vs 35% league average. Credit to Doug on RL Nation for this tidbit. You'd get pretty much nothing for him considering no one but us wanted to sign him in the offseason. Now Naquin is another story....Yankees desperately need a LH OF bat in their lineup. Flyer on Miguel Andujar?

[mth123]

What they'll probably do is trade Winker and Gray for another couple of guys who can play 3B.

[mth123]

Doolittle is allowing 83.3% of inherited runners to score this year vs 35% league average. Credit to Doug on RL Nation for this tidbit. You'd get pretty much nothing for him considering no one but us wanted to sign him in the offseason.

He's left handed and breathing and doesn't fit. The best you can get is the best you can get, but he goes. Lotto tickets aren't the plan, but they're better than nothing.

[TNRED]

How can you throw in the towel so early? After attending the RZ Kool Aide keg party i have come to realize a few things. Suarez will wake up Tuesday morning and channel Ted Williams and go in a tear never seen in MLB before. Castillo will one on like a Cy Young winner as an unprecedented heat wave hits the country with daily temperatures over 100 each day thru October. (Castillo struggles in temps under 90) Senzel returns from DL and plays all the rest of the games this year and puts up hall of fame numbers like he was projected to when he was dradted. Votto returns and hits like he did 5 years ago. N
Best yet Winker continues on his tear and Barnhart continues to exceed expectations and no one is injured the rest of the year. Remember, there is alot of season left and so far its a small sample size and some guys are just slow starters.

[mth123]

How can you throw in the towel so early? After attending the RZ Kool Aide keg party i have come to realize a few things. Suarez will wake up Tuesday morning and channel Ted Williams and go in a tear never seen in MLB before. Castillo will one on like a Cy Young winner as an unprecedented heat wave hits the country with daily temperatures over 100 each day thru October. (Castillo struggles in temps under 90) Senzel returns from DL and plays all the rest of the games this year and puts up hall of fame numbers like he was projected to when he was dradted. Votto returns and hits like he did 5 years ago. N
Best yet Winker continues on his tear and Barnhart continues to exceed expectations and no one is injured the rest of the year. Remember, there is alot of season left and so far its a small sample size and some guys are just slow starters.

You don't make the deals now, but you start identifying who needs what you have and what they have that you want and fits what you need. Maybe have some preliminary discussions, etc. If the team suddenly starts playing like they belong in the big leagues, you can always decline the deals. But Memorial day is in a week and this team will probably be below .500 with several holes that need filled. Start thinking ahead now for what you'll likely do after the All Star game.

[REDREAD]

Naquin for the best prospect you can get.

I agree on everything but this.
I think the Reds should keep Naquin. Yes, he may crash back to earth.. But next year, Cast is likely gone.
I'd rather have Naquin as a starting OF than Shogo or Aquino.
If it's not too expensive next year to keep Naquin (I Can't imagine it will be), I would.
Honestly, other teams are going to see his early returns as a fluke too.. I can't see him bringing back much.

[mth123]

I agree on everything but this.
I think the Reds should keep Naquin. Yes, he may crash back to earth.. But next year, Cast is likely gone.
I'd rather have Naquin as a starting OF than Shogo or Aquino.
If it's not too expensive next year to keep Naquin (I Can't imagine it will be), I would.
Honestly, other teams are going to see his early returns as a fluke too.. I can't see him bringing back much.

I think they need a young 4 or 5 tool OF who can play RF. The Reds haven't had a real RF since Jay Bruce started to decline. Castellanos has been good, but he's more of a LF/DH. In all these trades, that would be my top target. Shogo would be 4th OF who spells Senzel frequently in CF and Aquino would be a RH PH, insurance policy.

[wolfboy]

Stumbling into the playoffs last year and now this start to the season. This is what we get in exchange for the long-suffering "rebuild". Sell it all. Or don't. I have no confidence this group will get it right either way.

[Bill]

I agree on everything but this.
I think the Reds should keep Naquin. Yes, he may crash back to earth.. But next year, Cast is likely gone.
I'd rather have Naquin as a starting OF than Shogo or Aquino.
If it's not too expensive next year to keep Naquin (I Can't imagine it will be), I would.
Honestly, other teams are going to see his early returns as a fluke too.. I can't see him bringing back much.

Agree. Most are not going to trust his turn around months after getting DFA'd. He is known for being streaky and injury prone. Myself, after years of watching him, thought he was washed up, but the Reds retooled his stance at the plate and to date he has been a different player (much to my surprise). Many fans complain about Cleveland's hitting coach and perhaps that was the key, a new org and a new hitting coach. Might as well keep Naquin as opposed to a modest return.

With Reyes out in Cleveland, they could use a DH. Cast may be too expensive given their current austerity, but Winker should interest them. Maybe Barnhart with Perez out. Cleveland has an upcoming 40 man roster crunch this off-season with their farm depth and will be motivated to trade a few of their middle infielders and pitchers.

[elrojo]

Brilliant post. I love sarcasm.

[Old school 1983]

Guys I’d try to move if things continue in this path.

Tucker
Suarez
Castillo
Miley

Trade them early. Take the saving and go to Cast’s agent and ask what keeps him in Cincinnati the next two years? If it can’t be done, move him too. Bring up the kids and let them take their lumps this year so they have experience going into next.

Rotation

Gray
Mahle
Antone
Greene
Lodolo

Add Vlad and Santilian to the pen

Lineup:

1b Votto
2b India
SS Garcia
3b Moose
RF Cast or Shogo
CF Senzel
LF Winker
C Stephenson.

Just reread this....I think there’s a real possibility that the squad above is better than what’s on the field now.