Sell?

[Moose Herd]

The Reds are five games out, by the way and people are ready to jump out of windows. They still have 117 to play, nearly twice what they played all year last year.

Maybe wait a few weeks before having a breakdown?

[mth123]

You should be able to get more than Stiever for Castellanos. He's not even a top 100 prospect by any service I've seen.

Agreed. White Sox are a tricky match. Their high end prospects are all contributing to the big league team and may be difficult for them to include in a deal. The one playing the least important role is Michael Kopech. I'd consider dealing Cast for him and another prospect from their system. Zach Burdi, Jose Rodriguez and Micker Adolfo might be decent second guys to add. Adolfo is another all or nothing power guy with iffy defense, so I'd rather avoud that type. Burdi us a reliever and minor league relievers scare teh heck out of me. Rodriguez is a SS at Low A and is a batting average speed guy who may not be able to stick at SS and smells too much like Jose Peraza to me.

There should be plenty of matches for Castellanos. Every team can use a guy with a 1.000 OPS. The Reds should float him out there now and try to get a bidding war started and pull the trigger when the best offer comes in. I don't think I'd desal him for Kopech and one of those other White Sox prospects. Maybe in late JUly if no better offers come in, but I think they can get more impactful players in return.

[DocRed]

Agreed. White Sox are a tricky match. Their high end prospects are all contributing to the big league team and may be difficult for them to include in a deal. The one playing the least important role is Michael Kopech. I'd consider dealing Cast for him and another prospect from their system. Zach Burdi, Jose Rodriguez and Micker Adolfo might be decent second guys to add. Adolfo is another all or nothing power guy with iffy defense, so I'd rather avoud that type. Burdi us a reliever and minor league relievers scare teh heck out of me. Rodriguez is a SS at Low A and is a batting average speed guy who may not be able to stick at SS and smells too much like Jose Peraza to me.

There should be plenty of matches for Castellanos. Every team can use a guy with a 1.000 OPS. The Reds should float him out there now and try to get a bidding war started and pull the trigger when the best offer comes in. I don't think I'd desal him for Kopech and one of those other White Sox prospects. Maybe in late JUly if no better offers come in, but I think they can get more impactful players in return.

Yankees desperately need outfield help. They would probably prefer a LH bat though. I asked on one of their boards and they were salivating over Winker but were afraid he would cost too much to acquire. If Castellanos didn't have that damn opt out he would be right up there with Winker IMO.

[mth123]

The Reds are five games out, by the way and people are ready to jump out of windows. They still have 117 to play, nearly twice what they played all year last year.

Maybe wait a few weeks before having a breakdown?

No breakdown here. They aren't built to win on the road and they just went 1-6 at home. Memorial day is when teams need to start deciding which direction they should go and making inquiries. They don't have to make a deal now. They can wait until July to pull the trigger. If the team starts to play better (it could happen if they get healthy and Castillo and Suarez right themselves) they can always turn down these offers, but they should start some discussions, see who is available for what they potentially have to sell and start doing their homework.

Most of us thought this was an under .500 team going into the season anyway. For them to be better, they needed to stay healthy, their top guys needed to have good years and the Suarez to SS move needed to work out. Very little of that has happened. They've gotten above expectations production from Winker, Castellanos, Naquin, Barnhart and Miley. Some of that is going to drop off. Even if those guys all end up having good seasons, they probably won't continue at their current levels. Those guys have been doing most of the heavy lifting. When that drops, this team could be abysmal unless some other guys get healthy and pick up the slack.

You're right, it's too early to pull the trigger on selling. The offers won't be there at this point anyway. But its not too early to start planning. Historically this team has screwed the pooch at the deadline by either waiting too long while other teams deal for the good young guys available or doing nothing for the sake of pretending they still have a chance. Castellanos is almost certainly gone. Barnhart is likely replaced by the top prospect backing him up, Naquin is having a career year not likely to be repeated and Miley has been up and down throughout his career. This team needs to cash in while these guys are at a high point. They need multiple building blocks added to the mix or it will be sub .500 for the foreseeable future IMO.

[RedTeamGo!]

The Reds are five games out, by the way and people are ready to jump out of windows. They still have 117 to play, nearly twice what they played all year last year.

Maybe wait a few weeks before having a breakdown?

Who is having a breakdown? Quit gaslighting.

[Moose Herd]

Who is having a breakdown? Quit gaslighting.

Dude wanting to trade Winker so that they can also move Votto is having a breakdown.


It's not just this thread, I'm talking about either. This entire message board is having a nervous breakdown. I get it, it's been a bad couple of weeks, but even after a bad couple of weeks they are only five games out of first and this division is entirely winnable. They should be looking to add at this point, not sell.

[Old school 1983]

Dude wanting to trade Winker so that they can also move Votto is having a breakdown.


It's not just this thread, I'm talking about either. This entire message board is having a nervous breakdown. I get it, it's been a bad couple of weeks, but even after a bad couple of weeks they are only five games out of first and this division is entirely winnable. They should be looking to add at this point, not sell.

At this point I’d be looking for selective transactions. Trading Barnhart is a sell move to some. To me it could be a buy. Stephenson takes his place. Talent comes back. Guys like Suarez are on the brink of addition by subtraction territory. Try to move his salary and see if you can’t get Cast to waive the opt outs.

The thing that people are missing in this bad steak is that literally 1/3 of the starting lineup is out and you are getting nothing from Castillo and Suarez. Not saying the world will turn around, but the team isn’t this bad and the division is very winnable.

[SidneySlicker]

A GM isn't doing his job if he doesn't listen to every offer. With the way things have gone on this team Winker is absolutely tradeable, but it has to be for a top player in the minors and some very good pieces parts that fit into the same window as your young core of Stephenson, Greene, India, Lodollo, etc.

[DocRed]

I think ppl are overestimating what Barnhart would get in a trade. Yes, it should be done but you are likely only getting a lottery ticket. $7.5M is still a lot of money for next year and he's had exactly 1 season over 1.0 bWAR in his career to date. I think most teams realize his hitting will eventually regress to the mean and in reality it has already started doing that. The market isn't good either right now....no contender is dying for a catcher that I can see.

[Coopdaddy67]

If Winker continues on this pace, his value will never be higher.

If you can turn him into multiple top tier prospects, they should do it without hesitation. He's an FA after 2023 when he'll be 30 years old. Why would the Reds give him a massive contract at that point?

Unfortunately, you can't trade guys like Castillo and Suarez because their value is so damaged. Have to hope the light bulb goes on in the 2nd half and they're in position to get good value in the offseason or next July. You can probably put Gray in the same category as those two.

For the Reds, it's simple: you can't keep allowing your premium assets to decline or get so close to FA where their trade value is minimal. We saw what happens when you do that several years ago.

Castellanos is most likely opting out after the season unless his production falls off a cliff, making me even more supportive of the idea to trade Winker if you can get a massive haul. The offense is going to be bad next year. Real bad.

[mth123]

I think ppl are overestimating what Barnhart would get in a trade. Yes, it should be done but you are likely only getting a lottery ticket. $7.5M is still a lot of money for next year and he's had exactly 1 season over 1.0 bWAR in his career to date. I think most teams realize his hitting will eventually regress to the mean and in reality it has already started doing that. The market isn't good either right now....no contender is dying for a catcher that I can see.

I think the Yankees would take him. Sanchez is their Suarez on offense and defense, money isn't an issue and he'd add some lefty balance. He won't bring a top player, but he should bring a usable player. Alexander Vizcaino or Yoendry Gomez are the kinds of guys I'm thinking of in a deal for Barnhart. Similar to Vlad or Santillan. Some promise, some pedigree, but still a significant question mark.

[DocRed]

If Winker continues on this pace, his value will never be higher.

If you can turn him into multiple top tier prospects, they should do it without hesitation. He's an FA after 2023 when he'll be 30 years old. Why would the Reds give him a massive contract at that point?

Unfortunately, you can't trade guys like Castillo and Suarez because their value is so damaged. Have to hope the light bulb goes on in the 2nd half and they're in position to get good value in the offseason or next July. You can probably put Gray in the same category as those two.

For the Reds, it's simple: you can't keep allowing your premium assets to decline or get so close to FA where their trade value is minimal. We saw what happens when you do that several years ago.

Castellanos is most likely opting out after the season unless his production falls off a cliff, making me even more supportive of the idea to trade Winker if you can get a massive haul. The offense is going to be bad next year. Real bad.

Gleybor or Jasson straight up. But I would also take something like Deivi, Clint and Josh Smith (who some consider the best hitter in the Yankees farm)

[SidneySlicker]

If Winker continues on this pace, his value will never be higher.

If you can turn him into multiple top tier prospects, they should do it without hesitation. He's an FA after 2023 when he'll be 30 years old. Why would the Reds give him a massive contract at that point?

Unfortunately, you can't trade guys like Castillo and Suarez because their value is so damaged. Have to hope the light bulb goes on in the 2nd half and they're in position to get good value in the offseason or next July. You can probably put Gray in the same category as those two.

For the Reds, it's simple: you can't keep allowing your premium assets to decline or get so close to FA where their trade value is minimal. We saw what happens when you do that several years ago.

Castellanos is most likely opting out after the season unless his production falls off a cliff, making me even more supportive of the idea to trade Winker if you can get a massive haul. The offense is going to be bad next year. Real bad.

Couldn't have said it better. This is an ownership issue in my opinion. When guys have success with the Reds, Bob Castellini gets personally invested in said players and won't allow them to be traded until their value has crashed either due to production, or simply because they have too little time left on their contract to get good value. As much as I dislike David Bell as a manager the Reds problem is and has been an ownership problem. Until ownership figures out how they as a small market ball club must be run than they're never going to experience sustained success, if any success at all. This year the Indians are sub par, but in general they should be the organization that the Reds model themselves after and they're instate and only 250 miles away. But alas, Bob Castellini is going to do Bob Castellini.

[DocRed]

I think the Yankees would take him. Sanchez is their Suarez on offense and defense, money isn't an issue and he'd add some lefty balance. He won't bring a top player, but he should bring a usable player. Alexander Vizcaino or Yoendry Gomez are the kinds of guys I'm thinking of in a deal for Barnhart. Similar to Vlad or Santillan. Some promise, some pedigree, but still a significant question mark.

Maybe, Higashioki is struggling but still has an OPS of .771 and a bWAR of 0.7 thanks to his D. He sounds a lot like Tucker to me. Actually money is an issue for the Yankees as they will do everything they can to stay under the luxury threshold this year and next because they will be a multi-time offender and the penalties go up. They would be a 3x offender which means their taxes are 50%, 62% and 95% depending on how much they overspend. They are about $2M under right now.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...uxury-tax.html

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/

[Coopdaddy67]

Castellanos is not going to option out. Great American park makes his numbers. He knows that.

If that's the case, he'd be locked into a 2-year, $32 mil deal.

Given how he's hit this year, he can blow that out of the water in FA and he realistically only has time for one more big contract.

He's currently sitting at 181 OPS+.