What's Making Me Angry Today - Tejay Antone Edition

[Coopdaddy67]

Thing is, those things aren’t entirely unrelated. The Reds might have the lead more often if Antone was starting and throwing 6ish innings every time through the rotation. That way you know you’re going to get 10-12 innings from the best pitcher on the roster a couple times a week, where you can’t predict if there’ll end up being situations to use him in as a reliever.

Sure, but a lead after 5-6 innings isn't worth much of anything with this bullpen sans Antone. If you think the Reds can contend for a playoff spot this year and your goal is winning baseball games, Antone's a lot more valuable being able to potentially lock down up to 3-4 games a week. That way they can control which games he can influence the most.

It would obviously take time to stretch him out and you're not going to get the same pitcher that you do coming out of the bullpen. We have no idea how he'd translate as a SP. You can't "throw the piss out of the ball" when you're starting a game.

[Edskin]

I’m in the minority here, but how Antone is being deployed is actually one of the things I am NOT mad about when it comes to the Reds.

I 100% understand the sentiment, and I’m also not “against” it. I just see the logic in where they are now.

Antone didn’t become a dynamic, dominant MLB pitcher until he was moved to pen. Now, perhaps that was coincidental. Perhaps he just figured it out around the same time he became a reliever and it would easily translate to starter. Or perhaps the move to the pen goes hand in hand with the dominance? I understand he’s always been a starter. But he was never a dominant starter. He IS a dominant reliever.

You need all parts to make a team a team. Roles need to be filled. If you have one guy filling his role to perfection, I don’t think you should be in such a rush to move him to another role (perhaps a more important one) and hope that dominance will translate. At best, you move your dominance from one area to another (admittedly possibly in a more important area). At worst, you leave a gaping hole AND lose your dominance altogether. I think there is more risk than people are making it out.

I would leave Antone in his role the entire season. Then reassess headed into next year after we get a 162 game sample.

[*BaseClogger*]

He's got a 1.6 WAR through 46 games. If you think he'll continue being that good for the rest of the season, that works out to a 5.6 WAR. That's where the math takes us. He's looking at a higher number because he's on pace to throw 91 innings. Disingenuous would be comparing him to 60 IP closers and pretending that's the same thing.

It's also disingenuous to pretend he's going to produce the exact same quality working longer stints as a SP as he is working full gas as a reliever. Almost no one does. If you're expecting a 1.73 ERA and 7 IP per start, you're likely to be sorely disappointed in what you get. As a SP, Antone would do very well to match what Tyler Mahle's doing (5 IP starter with a 119 ERA+), and what Antone's currently doing is, by most measures, more valuable.

I posted the numbers. Here's some more context for you. He's 14th in the NL in pitching WAR. He's 6th in the league in WPA. He's 17th in RE24. If the idea is to maximize Antone's value in unconventional fashion to give the team its best shot (which I wholeheartedly agree with as a principle), it sure looks like that's what they're doing.

I’m not comparing him to 60 IP closers, I’m comparing him to every reliever of the last couple decades.

You think Antone is going to have a historic season as the most valuable reliever in recent history. No wonder we disagree, because I think that’s just as unrealistic as your opinion of my analysis of his potential as a starter.

We can play the 162 game pace game until the cows come home. Traditionally, that’s a foolish endeavor...

[M2]

I’m not comparing him to 60 IP closers, I’m comparing him to every reliever of the last couple decades.

You think Antone is going to have a historic season as the most valuable reliever in recent history. No wonder we disagree, because I think that’s just as unrealistic as your opinion of my analysis of his potential as a starter.

We can play the 162 game pace game until the cows come home. Traditionally, that’s a foolish endeavor...

Take any future discount off of Antone's performance you want, but make sure you apply that same discount to the whatever you expect from him in the rotation. Seems like a strange argument that he won't continue to be this good, so let's make him a SP.

[mgbrown66]

When does this stop being a small sample size? He has electric stuff. He should be in the rotation, IMO.

[redsfan9988]

Tonight we see the real weakness of using Antone in this manner. 2 IP and 32 pitches yesterday - and he's wholly and completely unavailable tonight. He's going to sit and watch us blow this lead...

[westofyou]

Tonight we see the real weakness of using Antone in this manner. 2 IP and 32 pitches yesterday - and he's wholly and completely unavailable tonight. He's going to sit and watch us blow this lead...

Looks like someone else came in and said... “Give him some low smoke and we’ll go and pound some Budweiser.”

[M2]

Tonight we see the real weakness of using Antone in this manner. 2 IP and 32 pitches yesterday - and he's wholly and completely unavailable tonight. He's going to sit and watch us blow this lead...

But he'd be unavailable for four games in a row on top of turning over games to a bullpen you don't trust (don't blame you) if he was a starter. In the pen he'll pitch in more high leverage situations. Handled some critical innings yesterday, probably in line to handle some tomorrow if they arise.

[NeilHamburger]

The argument that Antone would be more valuable as a reliever is just silly. If that was the case teams would move all their top draft choices through the minors as relievers. They don't. If someone can be a top end starter that is where he pitches.

The problem is the Reds cobbled together the worst bullpen (outside of Antone) I've ever seen from an MLB team. That needs to be corrected next offseason, and Antone needs to be moved to the rotation.

[Tony Cloninger]

Antone only threw 32 pitches. He probably could have been able to get the out that DD was put in to do by Bell.

It really is not that extreme that he could have been able to do that at least. Yes he would be out tomorrow for sure. Which also shows how bad even relievers are in regards to not being able to go maybe 2 games in a row.

I’m not advocating doing this all the time of course. With this bullpen though it might have to happen at some point.

[M2]

The argument that Antone would be more valuable as a reliever is just silly. If that was the case teams would move all their top draft choices through the minors as relievers. They don't. If someone can be a top end starter that is where he pitches.

The problem is the Reds cobbled together the worst bullpen (outside of Antone) I've ever seen from an MLB team. That needs to be corrected next offseason, and Antone needs to be moved to the rotation.

I'm not going to re-do the math here. It's in this thread. Antone would have to be a better SP than Tyler Mahle currently is to provide more value in the rotation than he currently is in the pen (on a 90 IP, 6.0 WAR pace). I don't buy that Antone would be that kind of SP. What Antone's doing doesn't fit the standard talking points, but the analytics back it up. As long as he gets a lot of work out of the pen, it holds up.

If they want to do a bullpen overhaul next year and make Antone a starter, cool. But Lodolo and Greene look like they're coming fast. So maybe Tejay keeps anchoring the pen. Good problem to have if it ever arises.

[Old school 1983]

I'm not going to re-do the math here. It's in this thread. Antone would have to be a better SP than Tyler Mahle currently is to provide more value in the rotation than he currently is in the pen (on a 90 IP, 6.0 WAR pace). I don't buy that Antone would be that kind of SP. What Antone's doing doesn't fit the standard talking points, but the analytics back it up. As long as he gets a lot of work out of the pen, it holds up.

If they want to do a bullpen overhaul next year and make Antone a starter, cool. But Lodolo and Greene look like they're coming fast. So maybe Tejay keeps anchoring the pen. Good problem to have if it ever arises.

Mahle is having a hell of a year. However, I think there’s a good chance Antone would be better. But, without Antone, the pen is hot trash and he’s supplying huge performance there. When it gets to the point that the season is toast or they bolster the pen, see what Antone can do as a starter.

[Wonderful Monds]

I'm not going to re-do the math here. It's in this thread. Antone would have to be a better SP than Tyler Mahle currently is to provide more value in the rotation than he currently is in the pen (on a 90 IP, 6.0 WAR pace). I don't buy that Antone would be that kind of SP. What Antone's doing doesn't fit the standard talking points, but the analytics back it up. As long as he gets a lot of work out of the pen, it holds up.

If they want to do a bullpen overhaul next year and make Antone a starter, cool. But Lodolo and Greene look like they're coming fast. So maybe Tejay keeps anchoring the pen. Good problem to have if it ever arises.

Idk man, b-ref calling Antone a 2 win pitcher over 30 IP doesn’t remotely pass the smell test to me, it’s the exact reason I can’t take that metric seriously at all.

[Wonderful Monds]

Mahle is having a hell of a year. However, I think there’s a good chance Antone would be better. But, without Antone, the pen is hot trash and he’s supplying huge performance there. When it gets to the point that the season is toast or they bolster the pen, see what Antone can do as a starter.

I really don’t think “better than Tyler Mahle” is a really high bar to clear for a pitcher as talented as Antone and having that kind of stuff. At the very least he wouldn’t spontaneously combust the second a batter sees him a third time the way Mahle does.

[westofyou]

Billy McCool, Scott Williamson, Danny Graves... all were converted relievers who saw their prior dominance dissipate as a starter, in a game that valued starting more than it is today. All however were given the nod in the off season and then worked up to it.

In today’s game that path is certain over a mid season switch