So obviously things aren't great now. Since salvaging a split at Coors to inch back to .500, we're a cool 3-9, thanks mostly to a woeful 2020-style offense and also some pretty mediocre pitching. Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I think this team has a run in it in the upcoming month. Through a combination of a gradually stabilizing rotation and the return of some key pieces to the offense, I think the Reds are poised to have a solid month. Will it be enough to put off the fire sale? That's hard to say, and given our current record, not entirely within their control - but I can see some reasons for optimism.
The Starting Rotation - Apart from an inexplicable abomination against the Giants, Tyler Mahle has been rock-solid all year. He's struggled to provide length, but has a 3.89 FIP, and a 10.0 K/9, and the league has managed a .306 OBP against him, despite his outlier against SFO throwing off the sample. Sonny Gray has shown several signs that he's healthy and ready to deliver midseason form. Since his first two starts (which were essentially spring training for him), he's put up a 2.36 ERA, a 40:14 K:BB, and an OPS against of .589. Wade Miley should return, and I see no reason he can't get back to where he was. I feel like his DL stint was likely related to him going well beyond his normal pitch count for his no-hitter. Since that's unlikely to happen again, a solid 5-6 inning on 90 pitches should be what we expect. Castillo is a total wild card at this point. I'd love to tell you that he'll return to his career averages in ERA and K-rate in June, but that's really not based on anything other than blind hope. It's hard to imagine him being worse, though. Then there's Vladimir Gutierrez, who acquitted himself quite nicely against the Cubs on Friday, Certainly, I don't expect him to be at 67 pitches through 5 every outing - his lack of swing-and-miss stuff will lead to some outings in which he gets shelled - but I believe what Jeff Hoffman was giving us is about his floor. 4 IP per start with a 4.61 ERA would be a disappointment. I think he has a Miley-ceiling and a Hoffman-floor. And he'll add some length either way, which should take some pressure off of the bullpen.
Guys getting healthy - We should see Votto back very soon - perhaps after the PHI series. Moustakas is in limbo, but hopefully can get back by mid-June. Eugenio Suarez could get back to his career averages this month as well. Since May 10th, he has a respectable .768 OPS despite an awful .190 BAbip. While I understand that Votto and Moustakas are not world-beaters at this stage in their respective careers, they are certainly better than the Kyle Famers and Alex Blandinos of the world. Hopefully they can provide some power and get Winker and Castellanos to see a few more hittable pitches.
I'm hoping the Reds can close out May with two wins. Mahle goes tomorrow and he's our best guy and he's been pretty good against the Cubs. We crushed Cubs starter Jake Arrieta last time out, and he's been mostly mediocre for the past few weeks. Miley vs. Velasques and the Phillies on Monday is hard to predict, but the Phils have been hit hard with injuries and Velasquez is trash (despite his good ERA so far in 2021). Let's say we win em both and enter June with a 24-28 record. The Reds play 27 games in June and 16 of them are against teams above .500. Six of the remaining 11 are against 2020 playoff teams - the Twins and the Braves (*insert PTSD flashback here). I'm still saying 16-11 to put us at 40-39 entering July, and at least giving us some pause before we sell off everything that isn't bolted down. If the Cubs and Cards continue to roll, or if the Brewers catch fire and play to their capability, it likely won't matter much. Here's hoping. Otherwise, what are we even doing here?
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Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking
