Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 5 12345 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 62

Thread: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2021
    Posts
    76

    Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    So obviously things aren't great now. Since salvaging a split at Coors to inch back to .500, we're a cool 3-9, thanks mostly to a woeful 2020-style offense and also some pretty mediocre pitching. Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I think this team has a run in it in the upcoming month. Through a combination of a gradually stabilizing rotation and the return of some key pieces to the offense, I think the Reds are poised to have a solid month. Will it be enough to put off the fire sale? That's hard to say, and given our current record, not entirely within their control - but I can see some reasons for optimism.

    The Starting Rotation - Apart from an inexplicable abomination against the Giants, Tyler Mahle has been rock-solid all year. He's struggled to provide length, but has a 3.89 FIP, and a 10.0 K/9, and the league has managed a .306 OBP against him, despite his outlier against SFO throwing off the sample. Sonny Gray has shown several signs that he's healthy and ready to deliver midseason form. Since his first two starts (which were essentially spring training for him), he's put up a 2.36 ERA, a 40:14 K:BB, and an OPS against of .589. Wade Miley should return, and I see no reason he can't get back to where he was. I feel like his DL stint was likely related to him going well beyond his normal pitch count for his no-hitter. Since that's unlikely to happen again, a solid 5-6 inning on 90 pitches should be what we expect. Castillo is a total wild card at this point. I'd love to tell you that he'll return to his career averages in ERA and K-rate in June, but that's really not based on anything other than blind hope. It's hard to imagine him being worse, though. Then there's Vladimir Gutierrez, who acquitted himself quite nicely against the Cubs on Friday, Certainly, I don't expect him to be at 67 pitches through 5 every outing - his lack of swing-and-miss stuff will lead to some outings in which he gets shelled - but I believe what Jeff Hoffman was giving us is about his floor. 4 IP per start with a 4.61 ERA would be a disappointment. I think he has a Miley-ceiling and a Hoffman-floor. And he'll add some length either way, which should take some pressure off of the bullpen.

    Guys getting healthy - We should see Votto back very soon - perhaps after the PHI series. Moustakas is in limbo, but hopefully can get back by mid-June. Eugenio Suarez could get back to his career averages this month as well. Since May 10th, he has a respectable .768 OPS despite an awful .190 BAbip. While I understand that Votto and Moustakas are not world-beaters at this stage in their respective careers, they are certainly better than the Kyle Famers and Alex Blandinos of the world. Hopefully they can provide some power and get Winker and Castellanos to see a few more hittable pitches.

    I'm hoping the Reds can close out May with two wins. Mahle goes tomorrow and he's our best guy and he's been pretty good against the Cubs. We crushed Cubs starter Jake Arrieta last time out, and he's been mostly mediocre for the past few weeks. Miley vs. Velasques and the Phillies on Monday is hard to predict, but the Phils have been hit hard with injuries and Velasquez is trash (despite his good ERA so far in 2021). Let's say we win em both and enter June with a 24-28 record. The Reds play 27 games in June and 16 of them are against teams above .500. Six of the remaining 11 are against 2020 playoff teams - the Twins and the Braves (*insert PTSD flashback here). I'm still saying 16-11 to put us at 40-39 entering July, and at least giving us some pause before we sell off everything that isn't bolted down. If the Cubs and Cards continue to roll, or if the Brewers catch fire and play to their capability, it likely won't matter much. Here's hoping. Otherwise, what are we even doing here?

  2. Likes:

    DocRed (06-16-2021),Fil3232 (05-31-2021),M2 (05-31-2021),mbgrayson (05-31-2021),RedEye (06-17-2021),Ron Madden (06-17-2021),WildcatFan (06-06-2021)


  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #2
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Posts
    27,029

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    I'm not going to argue against your optimism..
    It's just that last statement.. what are we even doing here?
    I'm here to enjoy the season, game by game. Without going into detail, the team will probably be worse next year, so I'm trying to
    watch as many games as I can this year.
    I think someone a long time ago said that being a Reds fan was kind of like being in an abusive relationship and not being able to leave. That's a pretty good analogy.
    Anyhow, the victories this year have been sweet. I don't think I've ever gotten so excited when the bullpen can pitch 4 scoreless innings in a win .. stuff like that makes it fun to watch.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  5. Likes:

    TheBigLebowski (05-30-2021)

  6. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    30,562

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    The June schedule is tough. While there are some opponents currently below .500, bulk of the games are against Padres (six games, four in SD) and division rivals Cards and Brewers.

  7. Likes:

    REDREAD (05-30-2021),TheBigLebowski (05-30-2021)

  8. #4
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Maryland
    Posts
    4,106

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    The only way they win June is if there is no Bell making out the lineup. He makes me yearn for Dusty and I didn't like Dusty.

  9. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Posts
    1,517

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    Quote Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking View Post
    The only way they win June is if there is no Bell making out the lineup. He makes me yearn for Dusty and I didn't like Dusty.
    I'm not the biggest Bell fan, but a tough dig when your options are Naquin, Schrock, Payton, Heineman, Blandino, and Farmer. It really makes very little difference what the order looks like.
    "In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
    -Walt Whitman

  10. #6
    Member RollyInRaleigh's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Posts
    15,330

    Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    For the first time since 1969, when I first starting following the Cincinnati Reds, I am nearly totally disinterested. The culture, the management, the front office, the lack of talent on the roster...it’s just totally made me numb...


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  11. Likes:

    Falls City Beer (05-30-2021),GAC (05-30-2021),REDREAD (05-30-2021)

  12. #7
    Corky is The Way Bob Sheed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    This extends to all things...
    Posts
    2,087

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    Just like with Bengals ownership, with the Reds ownership I can never figure out if it is incompetence or willful negligence.

    Like the SS thing last offseason. Think of all the problems that not signing a viable SS has lead to, directly or indirectly. How did that not get addressed? I understand having trouble signing pitchers to play at GASP, but good gloves and bats should be clamoring to sign and pad their stats here.

    Some could say in the end it doesn't matter which. The results are the same regardless.

    But if it was willful negligence for the sole purpose of minimizing spending while biding time as the franchise accrues value, I would probably find another team to root for. Whereas if it is incompetence, there would always be hope they would hire someone who knew what they were doing.

    Frustrating as a fan either way though.
    “You are not Atlas carrying the world on your shoulder. It is good to remember that the planet is carrying you.”
    ― Vandana Shiva

  13. Likes:

    Falls City Beer (05-30-2021),REDREAD (05-30-2021),TheBigLebowski (05-30-2021),wlf WV (06-17-2021)

  14. #8
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    27,645

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    Lol

  15. #9
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Venice
    Posts
    27,263

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    While recent play suggests it may not be a certainty, I don’t think it is irrational to predict that the Reds will win a game in the month of June.
    That’s why we’re playing, bro

  16. Likes:

    SomeCallMeTim (05-30-2021)

  17. #10
    They call me "chef"
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Posts
    3,739

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    Hot take: Reds will be tied for 1st in their division as early as Sunday, October 24th.

  18. #11
    Goober GAC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Bellefontaine, Ohio
    Posts
    28,689

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    Sure they'll win in June. The question is how many? Hope I'm wrong, but with the way their pitching staff is (amazing looking at last year), they continue to slide slowly, gradually, into the abyss.
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

  19. Likes:

    REDREAD (05-31-2021)

  20. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2019
    Posts
    1,409

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    they will win 5 and lose 200 sure they will win l.o.l.

  21. #13
    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Titletown, FL
    Posts
    6,266

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    I’m not going to rain on the parade. I don’t see it - at all - but I don’t see any reason to argue over optimism.

    From your keyboard to God’s monitor, sir.
    I'm just going to go find a cash machine.

  22. Likes:

    Bob Sheed (05-30-2021),REDREAD (05-31-2021)

  23. #14
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Jacksonville, FL
    Posts
    14,623

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    Redsfan9988, you may very well be right. Reds have been treading water the first 2 months trying to find which pieces are working on the staff. It's starting to come together. Staff has 3.14 ERA over last week. (that includes Mahle's performance so far today).

    It's all about finding some guys that can hit.
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

    https://redsintelligence.com/smforum/index.php

  24. #15
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Maryland
    Posts
    4,106

    Re: Irrational Prediction: Reds will win in June

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Freak View Post
    I'm not the biggest Bell fan, but a tough dig when your options are Naquin, Schrock, Payton, Heineman, Blandino, and Farmer. It really makes very little difference what the order looks like.
    There is another option that Bell has a overt dislike of.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | cumberlandreds | Gallen5862 | Kinsm | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator