I'm done overvaluing prospects

[WildcatFan]

Something snapped in me when Nick Senzel got hurt for the howevermanyth time in his short Major League career. I realized I'm completely tired of counting on prospects to come up to the big league club and become stars. You can't do it. Nobody knows who will blossom into a viable player and who will flame out due to injury, ineffectiveness, or insanity.

Look at the Reds' top prospects from 2010-18 (Posted at the end; I'm going with Fangraphs because I don't have a BA sub). There are 55 different players listed over nine seasons. Taking out the 11 unknowns (Trammell, Greene, Santillan, Siri, Gutierrez, Siani, Garcia, Aquino, Long, Friedl and Howard if you squint), there are, by my count:

2 stars (Winker and Chapman)
1 possible star (Castillo)
13 established Major Leaguers who had some years of solid production (Boxberger, Wood, Leake, Alonso, Grandal, Gregorius, Frazier, Mesoraco, Cozart, Barnhart, Lorenzen, Iglesias, Garrett)
2 promising rookies (India, T. Stephenson)
27 others who either didn't make the Show or are sub-replacement

That's 18 of 44, for a hit rate of 40.9%. Around 40% of TOP 10 PROSPECTS, from a team that has consistently drafted in the top 10 over the past decade, have become, or are in the process of becoming, even a moderately productive Major Leaguer. You have better odds flipping a coin.

I guess my point is, we and the front office tend to criminally overrate our prospects, and I'm now of the mindset that every last damn one of them should be available in a trade for honest-to-god, real-life Major League baseball players who can help TODAY. I'm done saying, "Yeah, it'd be great to have a Devin Williams in the bullpen, but you just can't give up any top pieces for a reliever." Sure you can! Matter of fact, you should! Of those 11 unknowns I listed, 6 of em aren't gonna work out anyway. I don't know who they are. You don't, either. Nor does Krall. If it gets you back a sure thing, might as well let somebody else figure it out.

The only guarantee when it comes to prospects is that most of them will disappoint you.

2018
1. Nick Senzel
2. Taylor Trammell
3. Hunter Greene
4. Jonathan India
5. Tyler Stephenson
6. Tony Santillan
7. Jose Siri
8. Vladimir Guitierrez
9. Mike Siani
10. Jose Garcia

2017
1. Nick Senzel
2. Amir Garrett
3. Jesse Winker
4. Aristides Aquino
5. Shed Long
6. Taylor Trammell
7. Robert Stephenson
8 Chris Okey
9. T.J. Friedl
10. Luis Castillo

2016
1. Jesse Winker
2. Robert Stephenson
3. Cody Reed
4. Amir Garrett
5. Alex Blandino
6. Jose Peraza
7. Nick Travieso
8. Tyler Stephenson
9. Keury Mella
10. Blake Trahan

2015
1. Robert Stephenson
2. Jesse Winker
3. Raisel Iglesias
4. Michael Lorenzen
5. Alex Blandino
6. Nick Howard
7. Nick Travieso
8. Yorman Rodriguez
9. Aristides Aquino
10. Amir Garrett

2014
1. Robert Stephenson
2. Billy Hamilton
3. Phillip Ervin
4. Yorman Rodriguez
5. Jesse Winker
6. Michael Lorenzen
7. Carlos Contreras
8. Nick Travieso
9. Tucker Barnhart
10. David Holmberg

2013
1. Billy Hamilton
2. Robert Stephenson
3. Tony Cingrani
4. Daniel Corcino
5. Nick Travieso
6. Dan Langfield
7. J.J. Hoover
8. Kyle Lotzkar
9. Jesse Winker
10. Jeffrey Gelalich

2012
1. Devin Mesoraco
2. Billy Hamilton
3. Daniel Corcino
4. Robert Stephenson
5. Zack Cozart
6. Todd Frazier
7. Didi Gregorius
8. Tony Cingrani
9. J.C. Sulbaran
10. Henry Rodriguez

2011
1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Devin Mesoraco
3. Billy Hamilton
4. Yasmani Grandal
5. Yonder Alonso
6. Yorman Rodriguez
7. Kyle Lotzkar
8. Zack Cozart
9. Juan Francisco
10. Drew Cisco

2010
1. Yonder Alonso
2. Mike Leake
3. Aroldis Chapman
4. Juan Francisco
5. Travis Wood
6. Todd Frazier
7. Chris Heisey
8. Matt Maloney
9. Devin Mesoraco
10. Brad Boxberger

[Tom Servo]

It was the whole rebuild in general that did it for me. It's far too often a bridge to nowhere and teams get away with it by promising a sustainable future that they can't actually guarantee. You should always be open to trading for legitimate big league talent and not fall too in love with prospects.

[KeefeCato]

Something snapped in me when Nick Senzel got hurt for the howevermanyth time in his short Major League career. I realized I'm completely tired of counting on prospects to come up to the big league club and become stars. You can't do it. Nobody knows who will blossom into a viable player and who will flame out due to injury, ineffectiveness, or insanity.

Look at the Reds' top prospects from 2010-18 (Posted at the end; I'm going with Fangraphs because I don't have a BA sub). There are 55 different players listed over nine seasons. Taking out the 11 unknowns (Trammell, Greene, Santillan, Siri, Gutierrez, Siani, Garcia, Aquino, Long, Friedl and Howard if you squint), there are, by my count:

2 stars (Winker and Chapman)
1 possible star (Castillo)
13 established Major Leaguers who had some years of solid production (Boxberger, Wood, Leake, Alonso, Grandal, Gregorius, Frazier, Mesoraco, Cozart, Barnhart, Lorenzen, Iglesias, Garrett)
2 promising rookies (India, T. Stephenson)
27 others who either didn't make the Show or are sub-replacement

That's 18 of 44, for a hit rate of 40.9%. Around 40% of TOP 10 PROSPECTS, from a team that has consistently drafted in the top 10 over the past decade, have become, or are in the process of becoming, even a moderately productive Major Leaguer. You have better odds flipping a coin.

I guess my point is, we and the front office tend to criminally overrate our prospects, and I'm now of the mindset that every last damn one of them should be available in a trade for honest-to-god, real-life Major League baseball players who can help TODAY. I'm done saying, "Yeah, it'd be great to have a Devin Williams in the bullpen, but you just can't give up any top pieces for a reliever." Sure you can! Matter of fact, you should! Of those 11 unknowns I listed, 6 of em aren't gonna work out anyway. I don't know who they are. You don't, either. Nor does Krall. If it gets you back a sure thing, might as well let somebody else figure it out.

The only guarantee when it comes to prospects is that most of them will disappoint you.

2018
1. Nick Senzel
2. Taylor Trammell
3. Hunter Greene
4. Jonathan India
5. Tyler Stephenson
6. Tony Santillan
7. Jose Siri
8. Vladimir Guitierrez
9. Mike Siani
10. Jose Garcia

2017
1. Nick Senzel
2. Amir Garrett
3. Jesse Winker
4. Aristides Aquino
5. Shed Long
6. Taylor Trammell
7. Robert Stephenson
8 Chris Okey
9. T.J. Friedl
10. Luis Castillo

2016
1. Jesse Winker
2. Robert Stephenson
3. Cody Reed
4. Amir Garrett
5. Alex Blandino
6. Jose Peraza
7. Nick Travieso
8. Tyler Stephenson
9. Keury Mella
10. Blake Trahan

2015
1. Robert Stephenson
2. Jesse Winker
3. Raisel Iglesias
4. Michael Lorenzen
5. Alex Blandino
6. Nick Howard
7. Nick Travieso
8. Yorman Rodriguez
9. Aristides Aquino
10. Amir Garrett

2014
1. Robert Stephenson
2. Billy Hamilton
3. Phillip Ervin
4. Yorman Rodriguez
5. Jesse Winker
6. Michael Lorenzen
7. Carlos Contreras
8. Nick Travieso
9. Tucker Barnhart
10. David Holmberg

2013
1. Billy Hamilton
2. Robert Stephenson
3. Tony Cingrani
4. Daniel Corcino
5. Nick Travieso
6. Dan Langfield
7. J.J. Hoover
8. Kyle Lotzkar
9. Jesse Winker
10. Jeffrey Gelalich

2012
1. Devin Mesoraco
2. Billy Hamilton
3. Daniel Corcino
4. Robert Stephenson
5. Zack Cozart
6. Todd Frazier
7. Didi Gregorius
8. Tony Cingrani
9. J.C. Sulbaran
10. Henry Rodriguez

2011
1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Devin Mesoraco
3. Billy Hamilton
4. Yasmani Grandal
5. Yonder Alonso
6. Yorman Rodriguez
7. Kyle Lotzkar
8. Zack Cozart
9. Juan Francisco
10. Drew Cisco

2010
1. Yonder Alonso
2. Mike Leake
3. Aroldis Chapman
4. Juan Francisco
5. Travis Wood
6. Todd Frazier
7. Chris Heisey
8. Matt Maloney
9. Devin Mesoraco
10. Brad Boxberger

They are called prospects for a reason. Just like NFL rookies or NBA rookies or High school kids going to play College football or Basketball. You never know how they will preform. Even the highest rated players sometime fail. Baseball of course is the hardest sport to predict on the draft.
I just like you are both UK fans. Look at the last several season of 5 star busts on the UK basketball team. I don't get all hyped up on mixed tapes of a 5 star. I take a wait and see approach. As you know those kids are built up to the next big thing at UK and after a couple games half the UK fan base turns on them if they don't dominate.

[RedTeamGo!]

I agree with the overall sentiment, but have they drafted top 10 most of the time over the past 10 years? They didn’t from like 2010-2015.

[WildcatFan]

I agree with the overall sentiment, but have they drafted top 10 most of the time over the past 10 years? They didn’t from like 2010-2015.

Yea, you’re right. Disregard that part.

[WildcatFan]

Yea, you’re right. Disregard that part.

Edit: 6 times since Alonso in 2008. Drafted Tyler Stephenson 11th.

[Wonderful Monds]

I would be interested to see this exercise done with other teams. I wonder how much this is a “prospects don’t pan out” problem as much as it is a “the Reds suck at developing players” problem. I would be surprised for example if that % held up for the Rays.

Not that I want the Reds to engage in the same level of austerity Tampa does, but they could stand to start turning minor leaguers into useful big leaguers more often.

I don’t think a team like the Reds should go all out in either direction for what it’s worth. I feel like the approach of the last few years could still be productive if they didn’t decide to slash the payroll to the bone over the offseason.

You should do your Trammell-Bauer trades whenever they present themselves and sign the Nick Castellanoses or Mooses of the world when they’re out there, but they do need to do a better job of identifying the Winkers and Castillos and hanging on to them. And actually turning guys like Senzel into stars more often.

[WildcatFan]

What the hell, my wife is working late.

Tampa Bay Rays Top 10 Prospects 2010-18
48 different players
Minus 10 unknowns (Honeywell, Bauers, De Leon, Williams, Solak, McKay, Lowe, Padlo, Fox, Sanchez)
2 stars (Davis, Snell)
12 established Major Leaguers who had some years of solid production (Odorizzi, Jennings, Beckham, Hellickson, Moore, Colome, Archer, McGee, Myers, Stanek, Adames, maybe Souza)

12 of 38, for 31.5%

2018
1. Brent Honeywell
2. Brendan McKay
3. Jesus Sanchez
4. Jake Bauers
5. Willy Adames
6. Joshua Lowe
7. Nick Solak
8. Lucius Fox (!)
9. Justin Williams
10 Austin Franklin

2017
1. Willy Adames
2. Brent Honeywell
3. Jose De Leon
4. Jesus Sanchez
5. Jake Bauers
6. Josh Lowe
7. Chih-Wei Hu
8 Lucius Fox
9. Casey Gillaspie
10. Adrian Rondon

2016
1. Blake Snell
2. Willy Adames
3. Brent Honeywell
4. Taylor Guerrieri
5. Kevin Padlo
6. Daniel Robertson
7. Adrian Rondon
8. Garrett Whitley
9. Chris Betts
10. Mikie Mahtook

2015
1. Steven Souza
2. Willy Adames
3. Justin O'Conner
4. Daniel Robertson
5. Alex Colome
6. Blake Snell
7. Taylor Guerrieri
8. Andrew Velazquez
9. Brent Honeywell

2014
1. Jake Odorizzi
2. Alex Colome
3. Enny Romero
4. Taylor Guerrieri
5. Hak-Ju Lee
6. Ryne Stanek
7. Andrew Toles
8. Nick Ciuffo
9. Ryan Brett
10. Felipe Rivero

2013
1. Wil Myers
2. Chris Archer
3. Hak-Ju Lee
4. Taylor Guerrieri
5. Alex Colome
6. Jake Odorizzi
7. Richard Shaffer
8. Enny Romero
9. Drew Vettleson
10. Felipe Rivero

2012
1. Matt Moore
2. Hak-Ju Lee
3. Taylor Guerrieri
4. Chris Archer
5. Enny Romero
6. Alex Colome
7. Alex Torres
8. Mikie Mahtook
9. Drew Vettleson
10. Tim Beckham

2011
1. Jeremy Hellickson
2. Matt Moore
3. Desmond Jennings
4. Chris Archer
5. Jake McGee
6. Josh Sale
7. Alex Colome
8. Hak-Ju Lee
9. Alex Torres
10. Justin O'Conner

2010
1. Desmond Jennings
2. Jeremy Hellickson
3. Tim Beckham
4. Wade Davis
5. Matt Moore
6. Nick Barnese
7. Reid Brignac
8. Alex Colome
9. Kyle Lobstein
10 Alex Torres

[westofyou]

Picking horses is a hard thing for sure. I gave up years ago myself, you can see guys who will stick around but it's hard to pin down who is the next superstar. Any player that gets six years service time is good, maybe not a superstar but they are doing something right

[Tom Servo]

Picking horses is a hard thing for sure. I gave up years ago myself, you can see guys who will stick around but it's hard to pin down who is the next superstar. Any player that gets six years service time is good, maybe not a superstar but they are doing something right

One thing I'm definitely well past is playing any sort of service time games. I never liked it but at one point saw it as a necessary evil. No more, I don't want the Reds to ever mess around with that stuff again.

[Coopdaddy67]

The Cincinnati Reds are going nowhere without significant contributions from their farm system now and in the future. It's really that simple.

Hell, even the Yankees have moved away from the mentality that you can just use your farm system as trade ammo and fill other roster holes in free agency. They eventually learned that money alone couldn't get it done. The major difference is that they actually have the ability to throw around hundreds of millions of dollars each offseason in long-term contracts.

This team could trade away all their top prospects and they're still not going to be in position to compete for a World Series this year. Too many holes to fill, not enough elite prospects.

Imagine how great the last decade would have been if the Reds traded away Votto, Cueto, Encarnacion and Bailey for Erik Bedard...or for Joe Blanton.

[Tom Servo]

The Cincinnati Reds are going nowhere without significant contributions from their farm system now and in the future. It's really that simple.

Hell, even the Yankees have moved away from the mentality that you can just use your farm system as trade ammo and fill roster holes in free agency. They eventually learned that money alone couldn't get it done. The major difference is that they actually have the ability to throw around hundreds of millions of dollars each offseason in long-term contracts.

This team could trade away all their top prospects and they're still not going to be in position to compete for a World Series this year. Too many holes to fill, not enough elite prospects.

Imagine how great the last decade would have been if the Reds traded away Votto, Cueto, Encarnacion and Bailey for Erik Bedard...or for Joe Blanton.

You're absolutely right but I don't know that anybody is suggesting that the farm should be emptied. Just that the popular axiom about the importance of hoarding prospects is equally misguided. Keep some, trade others.

[WildcatFan]

You're absolutely right but I don't know that anybody is suggesting that the farm should be emptied. Just that the popular axiom about the importance of hoarding prospects is equally misguided. Keep some, trade others.

This, exactly. You’ll make some moves you wish you could take back, but overall you should be improving the big league club in years where you’re competitive. Hoard prospects when the ML team is going nowhere.

[Coopdaddy67]

This, exactly. You’ll make some moves you wish you could take back, but overall you should be improving the big league club in years where you’re competitive. Hoard prospects when the ML team is going nowhere.

They aren't really competitive though. They are benefiting from being in a really bad division and are still noticeably worse than the Brewers/Cubs. The NL Central is their ceiling, even if they make significant moves.

You have to weigh improving the big league club against damaging the future. If the Reds traded away Bailey, Cueto and Votto+ for Erik Bedard/Joe Blanton, they'd have set back the franchise a decade.

Some of those years were just really weak farm systems too, explaining why the success rate is lower. Add in a few career-altering injuries and it'll look worse. ​

It's not a surprise that the last time the Reds had some sustained success their team was built around a good amount of homegrown talent.

[WildcatFan]

They aren't really competitive though. They are benefiting from being in a really bad division and are still noticeably worse than the Brewers/Cubs. The NL Central is their ceiling, even if they make significant moves.

You have to weigh improving the big league club against damaging the future. If the Reds traded away Bailey, Cueto and Votto+ for Erik Bedard/Joe Blanton, they'd have set back the franchise a decade.

Some of those years were just really weak farm systems too, explaining why the success rate is lower. Add in a few career-altering injuries and it'll look worse. ​

It's not a surprise that the last time the Reds had some sustained success their team was built around a good amount of homegrown talent.

Yes, I agree that trade idea from 15 years ago that keeps coming up would have been a bad one.

What about if they’d traded something like Mesoraco, Hamilton, and Stephenson for James Shields in 2011? They were supposedly in on that. Are you glad they traded for Bauer in 2019? You missing top prospect Taylor Trammell? The hit rate on proven major leaguers is way higher than the hit rate on top prospects.

Again, you can’t deal em all. But hanging onto them in hopes of future productivity is a gamble that favors the house.