Turn Off Ads?
Page 4 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 68

Thread: I'm done overvaluing prospects

  1. #46
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,374

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    The Dodger deal was all about Bailey’s contract. That commitment including buyout was something like $28 million. Reds needed to get production from that large part of their payroll.

    This wasn’t a typical situation or trade. Reds’ backs were against the wall if they wanted to avoid another 90 loss season. They had to reallocate that very substantial sum.

    Despite the loss of prospects, I don’t hold it against Reds. Mostly it’s a cautionary tale about huge long term contracts by small markets.
    Last edited by Kc61; 06-10-2021 at 05:28 AM.


  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #47
    The pride is back. Assembly Hall's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Warsaw, IN
    Posts
    2,881

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    I don't really have any input in this discussion. All I will say is that it does bother me when I see one of our former prospects flourishing with another team.

  4. Likes:

    SoTxRedsFan (06-10-2021)

  5. #48
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Cleveland, OH
    Posts
    20,205

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdaddy67 View Post
    The problem is that Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray are Top 50 prospects. The Reds were very inefficient in using said prospects to acquire talent. If you're going to trade away good prospects, get controllable talent in return.

    They decided saving money and getting the Dodgers to eat Bailey's contract was more important than surrendering less prospect value. Stupid.

    Since the Dodgers used Downs in the deal to land Mookie Betts and still have Gray, I'd say they're the clear winners.
    Jeter Downs is currently struggling at AAA and Josiah Gray has pitched one game this year before going on the IL with a shoulder injury. Meh.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  6. Likes:

    Tom Servo (06-10-2021)

  7. #49
    Playoff Veteran sdwagers's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Liberty Township, OH
    Posts
    1,924

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Jeter Downs is currently struggling at AAA and Josiah Gray has pitched one game this year before going on the IL with a shoulder injury. Meh.
    I hear Yasiel Puig is available.
    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    sdwagers for Reds GM!

  8. Likes:

    Kinsm (06-10-2021),RedTeamGo! (06-10-2021)

  9. #50
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Dayton, OH
    Posts
    1,809

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Jeter Downs is currently struggling at AAA and Josiah Gray has pitched one game this year before going on the IL with a shoulder injury. Meh.
    The point is that they traded away those prospects and have nothing left to show for it. Their value wasn't maximized, which is what smaller market teams have to do. The Reds have been very inefficient for basically the past decade.

    Once again, if you are going trade quality prospects, you can't be surrendering them to get out from under bad contracts or to acquire rentals.

  10. Likes:

    757690 (06-10-2021)

  11. #51
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Venice
    Posts
    33,270

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdaddy67 View Post
    The point is that they traded away those prospects and have nothing left to show for it. Their value wasn't maximized, which is what smaller market teams have to do. The Reds have been very inefficient for basically the past decade.

    Once again, if you are going trade quality prospects, you can't be surrendering them to get out from under bad contracts or to acquire rentals.
    On top of that, their value increased greatly the year after the trade. So much for Downs, that he was a key part of the Mookie Betts deal.

    This was a swing and a miss by the Reds in proper use of these prospects.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  12. Likes:

    Coopdaddy67 (06-10-2021)

  13. #52
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    56,986

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Revering4Blue View Post
    I believe the referenced trade, IIRC, in 2012 was the the Rays/Royals trade with Shields and Will Myers as principle components.

    Nearly everyone thought Dayton Moore was crazy for engineering that deal at that particular time, but it really paid off for the Royals. It’s not often that two young organizational crown jewels are dealt for one another anymore.

    Edit: WildCatFan answered the question.
    When Moore made that trade Rany Jazayerli tore them apart, when they won the WS he did a major mea culpa

    https://www.kansascity.com/sports/ml...le2302371.html

  14. Likes:

    M2 (06-10-2021),Revering4Blue (06-10-2021)

  15. #53
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Dayton, OH
    Posts
    1,809

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    On top of that, their value increased greatly the year after the trade. So much for Downs, that he was a key part of the Mookie Betts deal.

    This was a swing and a miss by the Reds in proper use of these prospects.
    Yep. Gray was charging up the rankings before he was traded.

    I didn't mind trading Downs at all for the same reason as Shed Long: positional value and India making him expendable.

    The issue I have is that Gray/Downs could have been packaged with other prospects to get a higher-quality, controllable pitcher.

    The only time I'm fine with surrendering legitimate prospects for rentals is when the Reds are a piece away from contending for a World Series. Otherwise, what's the point? If you're going to use your prospect ammo in trades, do it for guys that can potentially create a multi-year window with others coming up through the farm system.

  16. #54
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2021
    Posts
    105

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdaddy67 View Post
    Yep. Gray was charging up the rankings before he was traded.

    I didn't mind trading Downs at all for the same reason as Shed Long: positional value and India making him expendable.

    The issue I have is that Gray/Downs could have been packaged with other prospects to get a higher-quality, controllable pitcher.

    The only time I'm fine with surrendering legitimate prospects for rentals is when the Reds are a piece away from contending for a World Series. Otherwise, what's the point? If you're going to use your prospect ammo in trades, do it for guys that can potentially create a multi-year window with others coming up through the farm system.

    100%. They made the move way too early. I don’t think there’s any way to defend this move in particular for the reasons below,but a prospect for proven players move is great if you are a few pieces away from contention. We were nowhere near ready for that.
    Just how bad was that trade:
    On the return side, it looks like the Reds did no research or checkups on Wood or Kemp, we got absolutely nothing from them. Puig was probably the reason this team was out of contention a month in. If you recall, he was black hole in the 4 spot I believe for way too long. Farmer has had a few moments but mainly fodder.
    We did move Baileys salary but it costs prospects. We were in a REBUILD, that should never happen. Not to mention, he was better in 2019 than Wood and Kemp.
    Now on what we gave up.
    Josiah Gray is a top 50 prospect and rated above Hunter Greene and Nock Lodolo. Think about that. Now, two things, I don’t think any of us feel that is true, and I would bet big money both Lodolo and Greene end up better, but that is the case on multiple lists right now. I’ve see. People defend the FO and say how should they have known he was going to breakout.....well that’s kind of their job isn’t it?
    Downs is a toolsy kid that is in AAA holding his own at 22. He’s going to be a solid player. His power and speed combo was evident. He was flipped as a key piece in a deal for a top 5 player in the game. No matter what he turns out to be, the damage is done.
    As others have said, those guys were sold at their low point for nothing. They have tons of value now and we have nothing.

    Fortunately India and Barrero look to be our up the middle tandem but man, Gray would be a heck of a back of the rotation starter to go along with what we have plus Lodolo and Greene

  17. #55
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Cleveland, OH
    Posts
    20,205

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    I don’t really think we need to rehash if the trade was a win or not for the Reds. My point was those two prospects didn’t pan out, even with lofty rankings. I was speaking to the point brought up by the OP.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  18. Likes:

    Revering4Blue (06-10-2021),WildcatFan (06-10-2021)

  19. #56
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Savannah, TN
    Posts
    4,317

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    On top of that, their value increased greatly the year after the trade. So much for Downs, that he was a key part of the Mookie Betts deal.

    This was a swing and a miss by the Reds in proper use of these prospects.
    Their value was known before the Reds traded them. Without going into much detail they were considered some of the Dodgers top prospects before they had even played a single game in the organization. Scouts were really high on Gray after his Rookie Ball season. Really high. The Reds had to know it because I knew it and you can’t tell me my information source is more in the know then they would be.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

  20. Likes:

    LARKIN (06-10-2021)

  21. #57
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2021
    Posts
    105

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I don’t really think we need to rehash if the trade was a win or not for the Reds. My point was those two prospects didn’t pan out, even with lofty rankings. I was speaking to the point brought up by the OP.
    I won’t spin my wheels on this anymore after this post, but are you saying Downs and Gray have busted already? Because that is nowhere near true.

  22. #58
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,374

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by paulrichjr View Post
    Their value was known before the Reds traded them. Without going into much detail they were considered some of the Dodgers top prospects before they had even played a single game in the organization. Scouts were really high on Gray after his Rookie Ball season. Really high. The Reds had to know it because I knew it and you can’t tell me my information source is more in the know then they would be.
    Went back and looked at some reports of the trade to refresh memory. Based on those, Downs was in the 7-8 range among Reds’ prospects. Gray wasn’t top ten. One projection was for Downs to be in the 7-10 prospect range for Dodgers and Gray to be in the back half of their top 15, whatever that meant.
    Last edited by Kc61; 06-10-2021 at 02:17 PM.

  23. #59
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    7,336

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Downs hit 13 home runs and walked in 10% of his PA as a 19 year old at Dayton. Dodgers and Red Sox have known what they're doing.

  24. #60
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    35,017

    Re: I'm done overvaluing prospects

    Can't believe we have to again rehash a trade from two years ago about guys who still haven't even made MLB debuts yet. I also remember when the immortal Luis Gohara was the darling prospect who got away. The Reds have definitely fumbled some bags but I'd wait until these guys are actually doing something of real note to get upset about it.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | Gallen5862 | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator