Series Preview: Reds @ Padres

[redsfan9988]

Apart from the last week or so of the shortened 2020 regular season, this is about as happy as I've been to be a Reds fan since 2013. Things have come together and we've slapped some division rivals around as a bonus. Time to look ahead to a very interesting four game set in San Diego. The Fathers are one of baseball's most exciting teams, with Fernando Tatis Jr. leading the charge. They have a stable of top-notch starting pitchers and a deep and talented lineup that is expected to compete with the Dodgers for NL supremacy in 2021. The Reds enter the series as baseball's hottest team - winners of six straight, and 13 of their last 16.

The Padres - After treading water for the first five or six weeks of 2021, the Padres caught fire in the second week of May. They reeled off a 16-3 stretch, highlighted by a nine-game winning streak. Since scoring in double digits in the first two games of a big series against the Astros, however, they've gone 4-13, culminating in getting swept by the Rockies at Coors. Colorado is a much better team at home, so let's not read too much in to our recent sweep. Their offense has gone to sleep and they've slipped into a reasonably distant 3rd in the NL West behind the Dodgers and the San Francisco Former Reds. For perspective - the Padres now trail in their division by the same margin that Philadelphia trails the Mets in the East - it's been a struggle.

Game 1 Thursday 8:40 ET - The Reds are traveling across most of the country to get to San Diego tomorrow, so naturally, The Padres have elected to start at 5:40 local time for a weekday day game. Whatever. This is a fun matchup that will feature two pitchers who have thrown no-hitters in 2021, in the form of Wade Miley and Joe Musgrove - who threw the first no-no in Padres history in April. We remember Joe Musgrove from his Pirates days. He came to Pittsburgh from Houston in the Gerritt Cole deal. After three up-and-down seasons with the Pirates, he was dumped for a truckload of mid-level prospects in a three team deal with the Mets this offseason. His spike in K-rate from last year has continued, and he has dominated at times. He's in the top-10 in the NL in WHIP, ERA, Ks, and K/BB ratio. In 6 games (5 starts) against Cincinnati, he's 3-2 with a 4.11 ERA. Wade Miley, of course has been on a pretty good roll lately (and nifty with the bat). It feels like SDP isn't a great matchup for Wade, given their RH power - but they've struggled to score lately.

Game 2 Friday 10:10 ET - Tony Santillan makes his 2nd ML appearance against Chris Paddack. Paddack looked like a breakout star in 2019, but has cooled since then. His FIP is a bit lower than his ERA and he's put up a respectable 3.38 in his last seven appearances. He doesn't typically provide a lot of length - he hasn't gotten an out in the 7th in any start this year. He faced the Reds once in 2019 and gave up 3 runs in 6 innings. It will be interesting to see Santillan ply his wares against the likes on Tatis, Machado, and Grishom. This feels like a game that may come down to the bullpens, however.

Game 3 Saturday 7:15 ET - Vladimir Gutierrez takes on Dinelson Lamet. Circle this one. Lamet has electric stuff. He's not really stretched out at this point, and has been limited to less than 80 pitches all year long. When his command is on, he's tough to deal with. Of course, we know what Vlad has been able to do. I'm excited for this one - and, of course, it's the only one I'll miss due to work. Weak sauce.

Game 4 Sunday 4:10 ET - So we get to take a random detour to the West Coast in the middle of a Mid-West road trip... And we start two hours early in game one... and two hours late in game four... Okay. This one has the star power - Luis Castillo (who seems to have righted the ship) and Yu Darvish - San Diego's biggest offseason prize. We saw plenty of Yu last year and he's largely picked up where he left off. In 10 career starts against Cincinnati, he's 4-3 with a 3.34 ERA.

Thoughts

-I love India leading off. He battles... He walks... He runs...
-Moose will likely not return this series as it seems he's had a setback in rehab
-I hate the way this series is scheduled. It seems petty. Maybe I'm being too sensitive
-It's the hottest team vs. the coldest team. I dunno.... I'm not thrilled

Weather - Dude, it's San Diego. It's gonna be nice af and it's not going to rain

Prediction - Reds beat Paddack and Darvish and scurry out of town with a 2-2 split.

[Rojo Rijo]

You're 100% right about the scheduling. It makes zero sense to send a team to the west coast during the middle of a non-west coast road trip and not give any days off.

That being said the machine keeps rolling in this series. I think we sweep but no way we drop more than 1.

[membengal]

I am also irrationally annoyed with the times of the games in this series.m

Also, what a great post - excellent preview.

[Boss-Hog]

Nice preview. Just a minor note - the schedule I'm looking at shows Saturday is a 7:15 game and Sunday's game starting at 4:10 (both EST).

[Assembly Hall]

Hope for the best and be prepared for the worst. Glady take a split, elated if we sweep them, and the wind comes out of my sails if we drop 4 straight.

[CaiGuy]

The Reds are a division-best 19-12 in intradivision play. Thay will do just fine.

But, in a story as old as time, they are 9-14 against the west.

Pretty nerve-wracking series, especially sandwiched between two non-Westcoast trips.

[redsfan9988]

Nice preview. Just a minor note - the schedule I'm looking at shows Saturday is a 7:15 game and Sunday's game starting at 4:10 (both EST).

Thanks, fixed.

[Fil3232]

I’d sign up for a split right now

[KeefeCato]

You're 100% right about the scheduling. It makes zero sense to send a team to the west coast during the middle of a non-west coast road trip and not give any days off.

That being said the machine keeps rolling in this series. I think we sweep but no way we drop more than 1.

Hope so. But I would be happy with a split. A split is not going to be easy. Only as good as the starting pitching. I think they have the advantage in that every game. But that is why they play the games.

[RiverfrontRed]

I'm thinking that MLB.tv is going to blackout the game for me since I'm 6 hours away from SD

[forfreelin04]

Apart from the last week or so of the shortened 2020 regular season, this is about as happy as I've been to be a Reds fan since 2013. Things have come together and we've slapped some division rivals around as a bonus. Time to look ahead to a very interesting four game set in San Diego. The Fathers are one of baseball's most exciting teams, with Fernando Tatis Jr. leading the charge. They have a stable of top-notch starting pitchers and a deep and talented lineup that is expected to compete with the Dodgers for NL supremacy in 2021. The Reds enter the series as baseball's hottest team - winners of six straight, and 13 of their last 16.

The Padres - After treading water for the first five or six weeks of 2021, the Padres caught fire in the second week of May. They reeled off a 16-3 stretch, highlighted by a nine-game winning streak. Since scoring in double digits in the first two games of a big series against the Astros, however, they've gone 4-13, culminating in getting swept by the Rockies at Coors. Colorado is a much better team at home, so let's not read too much in to our recent sweep. Their offense has gone to sleep and they've slipped into a reasonably distant 3rd in the NL West behind the Dodgers and the San Francisco Former Reds. For perspective - the Padres now trail in their division by the same margin that Philadelphia trails the Mets in the East - it's been a struggle.

Game 1 Thursday 8:40 ET - The Reds are traveling across most of the country to get to San Diego tomorrow, so naturally, The Padres have elected to start at 5:40 local time for a weekday day game. Whatever. This is a fun matchup that will feature two pitchers who have thrown no-hitters in 2021, in the form of Wade Miley and Joe Musgrove - who threw the first no-no in Padres history in April. We remember Joe Musgrove from his Pirates days. He came to Pittsburgh from Houston in the Gerritt Cole deal. After three up-and-down seasons with the Pirates, he was dumped for a truckload of mid-level prospects in a three team deal with the Mets this offseason. His spike in K-rate from last year has continued, and he has dominated at times. He's in the top-10 in the NL in WHIP, ERA, Ks, and K/BB ratio. In 6 games (5 starts) against Cincinnati, he's 3-2 with a 4.11 ERA. Wade Miley, of course has been on a pretty good roll lately (and nifty with the bat). It feels like SDP isn't a great matchup for Wade, given their RH power - but they've struggled to score lately.

Game 2 Friday 10:10 ET - Tony Santillan makes his 2nd ML appearance against Chris Paddack. Paddack looked like a breakout star in 2019, but has cooled since then. His FIP is a bit lower than his ERA and he's put up a respectable 3.38 in his last seven appearances. He doesn't typically provide a lot of length - he hasn't gotten an out in the 7th in any start this year. He faced the Reds once in 2019 and gave up 3 runs in 6 innings. It will be interesting to see Santillan ply his wares against the likes on Tatis, Machado, and Grishom. This feels like a game that may come down to the bullpens, however.

Game 3 Saturday 7:15 ET - Vladimir Gutierrez takes on Dinelson Lamet. Circle this one. Lamet has electric stuff. He's not really stretched out at this point, and has been limited to less than 80 pitches all year long. When his command is on, he's tough to deal with. Of course, we know what Vlad has been able to do. I'm excited for this one - and, of course, it's the only one I'll miss due to work. Weak sauce.

Game 4 Sunday 4:10 ET - So we get to take a random detour to the West Coast in the middle of a Mid-West road trip... And we start two hours early in game one... and two hours late in game four... Okay. This one has the star power - Luis Castillo (who seems to have righted the ship) and Yu Darvish - San Diego's biggest offseason prize. We saw plenty of Yu last year and he's largely picked up where he left off. In 10 career starts against Cincinnati, he's 4-3 with a 3.34 ERA.

Thoughts

-I love India leading off. He battles... He walks... He runs...
-Moose will likely not return this series as it seems he's had a setback in rehab
-I hate the way this series is scheduled. It seems petty. Maybe I'm being too sensitive
-It's the hottest team vs. the coldest team. I dunno.... I'm not thrilled

Weather - Dude, it's San Diego. It's gonna be nice af and it's not going to rain

Prediction - Reds beat Paddack and Darvish and scurry out of town with a 2-2 split.

Great post! Enjoyed it!

[Reds Freak]

I'm with the OP. I always have a bad feeling facing a good team on a cold streak. They are due for a course correction. Call me a Debby Downer.

[SomeCallMeTim]

I'm with the OP. I always have a bad feeling facing a good team on a cold streak. They are due for a course correction. Call me a Debby Downer.

But the Padres should be looking at the Reds as a team on a roll.

I think Miley is the perfect guy start to the series. Not what you see everyday, messes with timing. Teams that are scuffling may try to hard to break out.

At least we don’t have to stay up to midnight tonight…

[bm1475]

I'm thinking that MLB.tv is going to blackout the game for me since I'm 6 hours away from SD

The only area that used to get blacked out when I lived there was San Diego County itself. When I moved to Murrieta, I got the LA channels and the Padres games were available live on MLB.tv. That was a while ago, it's possible it's changed, but that was how it was back then.

[NebraskaRed]

AJ Cassavell
@AJCassavell

Dinelson Lamet starts Sunday, which would line up Darvish-Snell-Musgrove for the Dodgers next week. Saturday's starter is TBD, Jayce Tingler says.

Reds will not be facing Darvish