My Bullpen Depth Chart/Analysis

[mth123]

The problem with taking the season long stats is you are counting guys like DeLeon in May and Fullmer in April and a bunch of other guys who are not the current pen. If they acquired the three best relievers in baseball and added them to the staff tomorrow the season stats would still be the same.

That only shows you what they were, not what they are or will be.

It's why I alone was able to call this turnaround. And if Reds are smart at trading deadline (last year they were not) they will NOT be adding outside help.

Hendrix 5.47
Hembree 5.06
Garrett 7.01
Perez 7.71
Doolittle 4.25 (with 4.74 FIP)
Sims 5.02

It's not all the Deleons, Fulmers and Romanos of the world causing the issue. If you trust that group going forward, you are more trusting than I am.

Also, the Reds are six games behind. Had they actually gotten a reliever or two without having tryouts for half the season, where would that be? They absolutely should go get a reliever or two.

[Bourgeois Zee]

They need a hammer at the end of games.

Currently, Kimbrel (Cubs), Rodgers (Twins), Scott Barlow (KC), Richard Rodriguez (Pirates), and maybe Dylan Floro (Marlins) would suffice. Maybe some Yankees (Chapman, Losaiga) can be added.

I really like Cole Sulser as a target. 31, outstanding peripherals, cheap, years of control. He doesn't give up much loud contact, either. Not a flamethrower, but K's a bunch of guys while limiting hits and (to some extent) BBs. Having a great season, and the NL hasn't seen much of him at all. I don't think he's a hammer, but he'd be a nice target and probably wouldn't cost more than a tertiary SP prospect (Noah Davis? Broxton Roxby?) and advanced secondary offensive prospect (Friedl? Lopez?).

[TRF]

Hendrix 5.47
Hembree 5.06
Garrett 7.01
Perez 7.71
Doolittle 4.25 (with 4.74 FIP)
Sims 5.02

It's not all the Deleons, Fulmers and Romanos of the world causing the issue. If you trust that group going forward, you are more trusting than I am.

Also, the Reds are six games behind. Had they actually gotten a reliever or two without having tryouts for half the season, where would that be? They absolutely should go get a reliever or two.

A. we know RP ERA is extremely volatile.
2. We know the pen absolutely sucked early.
C/3. They do not suck now.

Over the last 7 days, the pen has given up 3 runs, from 2 guys. If you think they need an upgrade, that's fine. Hendrix would be the guy I'd send down for Lorenzen when he returns. I do not think we see Antone or Sims before Aug. 1. Doolittle is pitching for his life right now and doing well with a little luck going his way instead of against it.

I think we will see Perez today. He has not pitched in almost a week.

Osich, Warren and Brach have been terrific for well over a month now. Adding a healthy Sims and Antone at the new trade deadline further strengthens the pen. Garrett seems to be rounding a corner. Hembree too.

I think the Reds can add from depth here. Santillan, Vlad, etc. RJ Alaniz is pitching well in Louisville. Reiver comes off his suspension soon right? He's a candidate.

[Kc61]

Over the last thirty days the Reds pen has had a 4.24 ERA and 4.55 FIP.

While it’s certainly an improvement, it’s not championship team level. And while over the last 14 days the pen is 2.54 ERA and 3.83 FIP, that’s a pretty small sample, two weeks.

It’s too soon for a victory lap.

Even the better bullpens need healthy reinforcements this time of year. I don’t mean only relievers coming back from arm injuries.

I’d settle for Reds to add one solid, healthy back end reliever who has been through the wars. Especially if Reds are going to be in a tough pennant race where every game is important. One pitcher shouldn’t be too much to ask for.

[TRF]

The last thirty includes some guys not there anymore and guys that were struggling. For the most part they are not struggling now. and there are 5 potential additions arriving in the next 3 weeks.

I'm not clamoring for Pen help. I sure would like to see German Marquez in Red though. Or Trevor Story.

[mth123]

A. we know RP ERA is extremely volatile.
2. We know the pen absolutely sucked early.
C/3. They do not suck now.

Over the last 7 days, the pen has given up 3 runs, from 2 guys. If you think they need an upgrade, that's fine. Hendrix would be the guy I'd send down for Lorenzen when he returns. I do not think we see Antone or Sims before Aug. 1. Doolittle is pitching for his life right now and doing well with a little luck going his way instead of against it.Some guys who are doung well, Art Warren he's been a fringe major leaguer and now at age 28 we're supposed to just accept that he's trustworthy. JOsh Osich hasn't had a good season since 2015. Now at age 32 he's supposed to be an answer/

I think we will see Perez today. He has not pitched in almost a week.

Osich, Warren and Brach have been terrific for well over a month now. Adding a healthy Sims and Antone at the new trade deadline further strengthens the pen. Garrett seems to be rounding a corner. Hembree too.

I think the Reds can add from depth here. Santillan, Vlad, etc. RJ Alaniz is pitching well in Louisville. Reiver comes off his suspension soon right? He's a candidate.

Its 7 days vs a half season of sucking. Some of these guys have sucked a lot longer than that. Perez was deemed not worthy of a roster spot by the Astros and let go for a back-up low minors catcher. Hembree has been a fringe pitcher and he's 32. Hendrix is a 26 year old rookie. Doolittle hasn't been any good in years. Some guys who are doing well? Art Warren he's been a fringe major leaguer and now at age 28 we're supposed to just accept that he's trustworthy now?. Josh Osich hasn't had a good season since 2015. Now at age 32 he's supposed to be an answer?

This team still needs a closer and a second lefty. Osich, Perez and Doolittle should all go, maybe keep one as a mop up guy, If Lorenzen, Sims, Antone come back, it's a good problem to have. I don't really trust guys who have been out for a while with arm injuries either.

[reds44]

5 wins and we got people saying the bullpen is actually good lol.

Guys are pitching better, they still need help. Both can be true.

[RedsManRick]

Over the last thirty days the Reds pen has had a 4.24 ERA and 4.55 FIP.

While it’s certainly an improvement, it’s not championship team level. And while over the last 14 days the pen is 2.54 ERA and 3.83 FIP, that’s a pretty small sample, two weeks.

The 2019 Washington Nationals went 93-69 and won the world series. Their bullpen had a 5.68 ERA and 4.94 FIP.

Bullpens aren't magic. Runs are runs. Leverage is real, but not as big a deal as you might think. At the extreme, teams have reliever leverage index when the enter the game at ~1.3. Most teams are under 1.20. About half under 1.10. That means a 20-30% multiplier at most. So let's play this out:

Consider the difference between a 5.00 ERA and 3.50 bullpen ERA, which is basically top 5 vs. bottom 5. And let's say the bullpen throws 3 1/3 innings per game, on average -- which is what we've seen league wide this year.

Over the course a season, that's 90 runs -- the equivalent of ~9 wins. Leveraged up, it might be something like 110 runs or 11 wins. That's obviously a HUGE deal over the course of a season. That's the difference between .500 and the playoffs But what about in the playoffs?

Over the course of, say, 6 games, that's 20 IP and 3 1/3 runs. So, on average, that's something like 1 run in 3 of the 6 games or 3 runs in 1 game. How likely is it that those extra runs swing the outcome of a even a single game in that series? Note, I'm not saying "How likely is it that the bullpen blows a game?". I'm saying, "How much MORE likely is it that the bullpen blows a game?" How many games are that close? What are the chances that run or runs being allowed in a close game? And what are the chances that the runs were the difference. Allowing two extra runs allowed in a 4-3 game is dangerous, but the alternative is not necessarily a 3-2 win instead of 4-3 loss. It could have been a 4-3 win instead of a 4-1 win, in which case those two runs weren't consequential.

None of this is to say that bullpen quality doesn't matter. It does, absolutely. But even leveraged up, it's something like half of half of your team. And as recently as during the last full season, a team that had a horrible half of a half of their team won the World Series.

All things being equal, I'll take a better bullpen. But my point is primarily that it is to a team's detriment to treat any one area of their roster as uniquely important or impactful. If we're going to talk about "Championship level", that conversation only makes sense at the whole team level. Championships are the result of the sum of the parts. Focus on the sum. It's 100% true the Reds sum doesn't add up to enough right now. And it's 100% true that, aside from SS, the bullpen is likely the best opportunity the Reds have to increase the sum. But take any improvements you can get.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Over the last thirty days the Reds pen has had a 4.24 ERA and 4.55 FIP.

While it’s certainly an improvement, it’s not championship team level.

Only two of the past 10 World Series Champs have had ERAs that high-- Washington and Houston.

Though this ignores scoring environment and sample sizes, it's pretty clear-- a good bullpen is both an easy way to "steal" wins and a way to win the whole thing.

[RedsManRick]

Only two of the past 10 World Series Champs have had ERAs that high-- Washington and Houston.

Though this ignores scoring environment and sample sizes, it's pretty clear-- a good bullpen is both an easy way to "steal" wins and a way to win the whole thing.

What does that even mean? How many teams that won world series had great starting pitching? Great offense? Great defense? I'm going to go out on a limb and say "most of them" for all of those. Teams that win championships tend to be really good in most areas -- that's why they win. It's sort of a tautology to saying that being good in a particular area is key to winning a championship. And it's clearly not true that you have to be good in the pen to win.

It is clear that having a good bullpen is good for winning games and championships. What's not clear is that is it more good, proportionately speaking, than being good in any other area of the game.

[Bourgeois Zee]

It is clear that having a good bullpen is good for winning games and championships.

This is all I was saying.

(Well, that and the Reds' bullpen will need to improve moving forward if they want to have a better chance at winning more games and a championship.)

[Kc61]

AIn the second half of August through September, the Reds have series against the Dodgers, the Brewers, the Cubs, the White Sox. If they make the playoffs they will also face tough competition.

Ask yourself who’d you like to see in the late innings of close games in key stretch run games.

I’d like to see solid, healthy, seasoned relievers who have done it before successfully.

There are no guarantees, but in the key moments I’d rather not go with long shots who maybe will make good.

[HammerTime]

Eh, as always this is all about what it's going to cost. The bullpen has been good lately, but is still well short on true hammers. If you want to make a playoff run and can add a hammer without giving up too much, you go ahead and do it.

Also a real possibility of adding Greene and Lodolo down the stretch. Lorenzen should be here shortly.

[CaiGuy]

The 2019 Washington Nationals went 93-69 and won the world series. Their bullpen had a 5.68 ERA and 4.94 FIP.

Bullpens aren't magic. Runs are runs. Leverage is real, but not as big a deal as you might think. At the extreme, teams have reliever leverage index when the enter the game at ~1.3. Most teams are under 1.20. About half under 1.10. That means a 20-30% multiplier at most. So let's play this out:

Consider the difference between a 5.00 ERA and 3.50 bullpen ERA, which is basically top 5 vs. bottom 5. And let's say the bullpen throws 3 1/3 innings per game, on average -- which is what we've seen league wide this year.

Over the course a season, that's 90 runs -- the equivalent of ~9 wins. Leveraged up, it might be something like 110 runs or 11 wins. That's obviously a HUGE deal over the course of a season. That's the difference between .500 and the playoffs But what about in the playoffs?

Over the course of, say, 6 games, that's 20 IP and 3 1/3 runs. So, on average, that's something like 1 run in 3 of the 6 games or 3 runs in 1 game. How likely is it that those extra runs swing the outcome of a even a single game in that series? Note, I'm not saying "How likely is it that the bullpen blows a game?". I'm saying, "How much MORE likely is it that the bullpen blows a game?" How many games are that close? What are the chances that run or runs being allowed in a close game? And what are the chances that the runs were the difference. Allowing two extra runs allowed in a 4-3 game is dangerous, but the alternative is not necessarily a 3-2 win instead of 4-3 loss. It could have been a 4-3 win instead of a 4-1 win, in which case those two runs weren't consequential.

None of this is to say that bullpen quality doesn't matter. It does, absolutely. But even leveraged up, it's something like half of half of your team. And as recently as during the last full season, a team that had a horrible half of a half of their team won the World Series.

All things being equal, I'll take a better bullpen. But my point is primarily that it is to a team's detriment to treat any one area of their roster as uniquely important or impactful. If we're going to talk about "Championship level", that conversation only makes sense at the whole team level. Championships are the result of the sum of the parts. Focus on the sum. It's 100% true the Reds sum doesn't add up to enough right now. And it's 100% true that, aside from SS, the bullpen is likely the best opportunity the Reds have to increase the sum. But take any improvements you can get.

I agree that the "you gotta have x to win" saying are cliche. You gotta have an ace. You gotta have a deep lineup. You gotta have a good bench. And, of course, you gotta have a good bullpen.

However, the focus on it for the 2021 Reds makes sense...it is perhaps the weakest area of the team, therefore the place where the largest margin of improvement is possible. The bonus is that middle relief rentals can usually be had without a huge cost.

If I had to just trade for one player, though, I would go with a good SP (the net improvement over the 5th starters would be larger than one relief spot) or a good SS (same about improving over Farmer).

But in reality, the Reds could stabilize the bullpen with a few shrewd moves, with the hope that the injured brigade also gets healthy.

[Alpha Zero]

I think there are only two definite keepers on the current active roster:

Brach - pretty solid history of being effective and has been a consistent performer
Warren - has been an absolute K machine

In the next tier, Hembree is close to joining the “keeper” group, but I need to see a little more. He has been effective lately and has a long history of being a fairly solid option. Osich has had good results so far, but he feels like a bit of a ticking time bomb. I’m not a huge fan.

I have very little confidence in the other four guys currently rounding out the bullpen (Doolittle, Garrett, Perez, and Hendrix). Doolittle and Garrett are slightly ahead of the other two guys based on their histories, but I’m a bit worn out by waiting for Garrett to capitalize on his talent.

Antone, Sims, and Lorenzen should bump 3 of those four off the 25 man, so I think there’s definitely room for at least one solid addition to that group. I don’t think a full on revamp is necessary, but one or two extra reliable contributors would help a ton.