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Thread: Jeff Hoffman

  1. #31
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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I wish Vlad success, I really do. But so far, he’s a low K, high BB, high HR, low GB starter. There is no area in which he is average or better. I don’t see his area of strength as a starter.

    Santillan has (had) a good K rate. Even Hoffman’s K rate is somewhat higher and he’s kept HRs down. With them, I can see some raison d’etre in their given or expected roles.

    I’m happy for Reds to give Vlad more chances, they’re the experts. But as a starter, I just don’t see it. As a reliever, with the stuff playing up, better chance.
    The thing with Vlad is that while you are right, there is no area in which he is average or better (you could argue he is roughly average at inducing weak contact perhaps based on his stat cast numbers) he has also not been really bad at anything. His whole package is pretty consistent with that of a back of the rotation starter who can fill some innings while being unspectacular but not terrible.

    Vlad has a wide array of mediocre things going for him, he has 4 pitches that he throws quite a bit. His 3 off-speed pitches are effective and his fastball is not. He is basically a full-blown junk baller. I just don't see how you can bank on his stuff "playing up in the pen" so what if Vlad is throwing 95 instead of 93? Whereas Santillan might be able to get up to 99-100 with the potential for a very good slider in the pen that he can throw 50+% of the time if need be in short stints. Santillan has a shiny K rate but is pretty rough everywhere else. He walks too many, and gives up too much hard contact. Santillan might be on and give you a great outing here or there, but he is probably going to be having short and bad outings more often than not. Hoffman just kinda all around stinks, I know the first time through is getting referenced but that's largely smoke and mirrors. He has a BB /9 of 6 the first time through which is just unacceptable for someone with his caliber of stuff. The difference between his first and second time through is largely just BABIP.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 07-05-2021 at 04:24 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  4. #32
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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    The thing with Vlad is that while you are right, there is no area in which he is average or better (you could argue he is roughly average at inducing weak contact perhaps based on his stat cast numbers) he has also not been really bad at anything. His whole package is pretty consistent with that of a back of the rotation starter who can fill some innings while being unspectacular but not terrible.

    Vlad has a wide array of mediocre things going for him, he has 4 pitches that he throws quite a bit. His 3 off-speed pitches are effective and his fastball is not. He is basically a full-blown junk baller. I just don't see how you can bank on his stuff "playing up in the pen" so what if Vlad is throwing 95 instead of 93? Whereas Santillan might be able to get up to 99-100 with the potential for a very good slider in the pen that he can throw 50+% of the time if need be in short stints. Santillan has a shiny K rate but is pretty rough everywhere else. He walks too many, and gives up too much hard contact. Santillan might be on and give you a great outing here or there, but he is probably going to be having short and bad outings more often than not. Hoffman just kinda all around stinks, I know the first time through is getting referenced but that's largely smoke and mirrors. He has a BB /9 of 6 the first time through which is just unacceptable for someone with his caliber of stuff. The difference between his first and second time through is largely just BABIP.
    Santillan showed potential, though he’s raw. He threw 104 pitches against the Braves and was still effective at the end. Hoffman is a short term fix for the Reds, however they choose to use him. Not that concerned about him.

    But Vlad has to show some major league ability. Maybe tonight. He just seems to have AAA stuff. But again, it’s early, I trust the Reds have some reason to believe in the guy.

  5. #33
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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Vlad looks good tonight. He's wiley, and has the guts to stick through 5-6 innings most starts.

    Hoffman is much more tedious to watch, but I think he *could* be a very good reliever.
    Last edited by Mitri; 07-05-2021 at 09:27 PM.

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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Santillan showed potential, though he’s raw. He threw 104 pitches against the Braves and was still effective at the end. Hoffman is a short term fix for the Reds, however they choose to use him. Not that concerned about him.

    But Vlad has to show some major league ability. Maybe tonight. He just seems to have AAA stuff. But again, it’s early, I trust the Reds have some reason to believe in the guy.
    Vlad went 7IP and 6IP with 13 K’s and 4 earned against Milwaukee in back to back starts. He’s already shown major league ability. I don’t know why you keep choosing to only focus on Santillan’s really good Braves start while ignoring everything else.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    D
    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Vlad went 7IP and 6IP with 13 K’s and 4 earned against Milwaukee in back to back starts. He’s already shown major league ability. I don’t know why you keep choosing to only focus on Santillan’s really good Braves start while ignoring everything else.
    I’m not expecting any rookie pitcher to be a complete, consistent package at this stage. I’m looking for pieces of information that seem important in projecting the future.

    Santillan is raw, a work in progress. But in the Braves start I saw how he handled himself throwing 104 pitches. He was strong. That’s meaningful to me, I prefer him as a starter, although in either role I think he’ll miss bats.

    In Vlad’s case, going into tonight he had 7 K rate. Very few MLB pitchers can make it with a 7 K rate. The few that do often have pinpoint control and/or are ground ball pitchers. Not sure Vlad has either attribute.

    All this is subject to further information as time goes on. But early, these points stuck out IMO.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-05-2021 at 09:52 PM.

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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    D

    I’m not expecting any rookie pitcher to be a complete, consistent package at this stage. I’m looking for pieces of information that seem important in projecting the future.

    Santillan is raw, a work in progress. But in the Braves start I saw how he handled himself throwing 104 pitches. He was strong. That’s meaningful to me, I prefer him as a starter, although in either role I think he’ll miss bats.

    In Vlad’s case, going into tonight he had 7 K rate. Very few MLB pitchers can make it with a 7 K rate. The few that do often have pinpoint control and/or are ground ball pitchers. Not sure Vlad has either attribute.

    All this is subject to further information as time goes on. But early, these points stuck out IMO.
    If you’ve already thrown in the towel on the season than sure let Santillan take his lumps out there, the upside is definitely higher. His performance was very volatile which jives as an unfinished product with potential. However the Reds and myself seem to think they still have a shot at the playoffs so we should focus on who gives us the best chance to win the next game. Right now that just seems like Vlad is consistently giving us a chance to win.

    I think the Reds need to be a little more cautious with Vlad and make earlier calls to the bullpen. They seem to push the envelope with him and are sneaking out of danger before they remove him.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    If you’ve already thrown in the towel on the season than sure let Santillan take his lumps out there, the upside is definitely higher. His performance was very volatile which jives as an unfinished product with potential. However the Reds and myself seem to think they still have a shot at the playoffs so we should focus on who gives us the best chance to win the next game. Right now that just seems like Vlad is consistently giving us a chance to win.

    I think the Reds need to be a little more cautious with Vlad and make earlier calls to the bullpen. They seem to push the envelope with him and are sneaking out of danger before they remove him.
    Santillan is already designated to the bullpen. There’s nothing to be decided, it’s done.

    The issue is Hoffman and Vlad. Reds will probably stick with Vlad since he’s done well tonight. I’d probably go with Hoffman, more experienced, better K rate and lower HR rate. We’ll see how it develops over time, I’m sure both will get plenty of action.

  11. #38
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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Santillan is already designated to the bullpen. There’s nothing to be decided, it’s done.

    The issue is Hoffman and Vlad. Reds will probably stick with Vlad since he’s done well tonight. I’d probably go with Hoffman, more experienced, better K rate and lower HR rate. We’ll see how it develops over time, I’m sure both will get plenty of action.
    I hope I’m wrong and Hoffman’s injury impacted him more than led on but if not he’s just a bad pitcher. Career ERA over 6 and could barely make it two times through the order this year after moving away from Colorado. His walk rate was 6 this year, the measly boost in K’s doesn’t alleviate that bad of a walk rate.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  12. #39
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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    I was thinking of starting a Hoffman thread. Glad someone did.

    I had mentioned him in the pen a few times, and even after a decent start from Vlad tonight, i've flipped my opinion. Vlad in the pen, Hoffman in the 5th starters role. Here is why.

    I'm big on context. Hoffman has only been around Reds coaches since mid February. Now he's had a few weeks extra, rehabbing and working with Etherton. Hoffman has talent, but had serious BB issues this year. even more than his career norms. Some guys adjust with the right instruction or just a different set of eyes and a different philosophy. Point is, Hoffman did not have a ton of time with the Reds staff. Rehabbing has given him perhaps some extra attention.

    Because of that, IF he has the BB's under control, I'm for him as the 5th SP.
    Last edited by TRF; 07-05-2021 at 11:38 PM.
    Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.

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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I was thinking of starting a Hoffman thread. Glad someone did.

    I had mentioned him in the pen a few times, and even after a decent start from Vlad tonight, i've flipped my opinion. Vlad in the pen, Hoffman in the 5th starters role. Here is why.

    I'm big on context. Hoffman has only been around Reds coaches since mid February. Now he's had a few weeks extra, rehabbing and working with Cotham. Hoffman has talent, but had serious BB issues this year. even more than his career norms. Some guys adjust with the right instruction or just a different set of eyes and a different philosophy. Point is, Hoffman did not have a ton of time with the Reds staff. Rehabbing has given him perhaps some extra attention.

    Because of that, IF he has the BB's under control, I'm for him as the 5th SP.
    Cotham is in the Phillies organization but other than that I'd agree with your detective work.

    Still, I think Vlad very likely earned himself more slack from management with tonight's start. I'm still not terribly bullish moving forward, but it was nice to see no HRs hit by KC tonight. Some hard hit outs though.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    I hope I’m wrong and Hoffman’s injury impacted him more than led on but if not he’s just a bad pitcher. Career ERA over 6 and could barely make it two times through the order this year after moving away from Colorado. His walk rate was 6 this year, the measly boost in K’s doesn’t alleviate that bad of a walk rate.
    Hoffman’s HR allowed rate is .88 so far this year, to go along with a reasonable K rate. Probably good luck, but if he can keep the ball in the stadium for a couple of months the Reds could benefit.

    Maybe Reds will spend more money on pitchers next season and the choices will be better. For now, it is what it is.

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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Cotham is in the Phillies organization but other than that I'd agree with your detective work.

    Still, I think Vlad very likely earned himself more slack from management with tonight's start. I'm still not terribly bullish moving forward, but it was nice to see no HRs hit by KC tonight. Some hard hit outs though.
    I JUST edited that...

    As for Vlad tonight, big ballpark light hitting team. I'd rather see him throwing harder in shorter outings, say the 7th inning.
    Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.

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  17. #43
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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I was thinking of starting a Hoffman thread. Glad someone did.

    I had mentioned him in the pen a few times, and even after a decent start from Vlad tonight, i've flipped my opinion. Vlad in the pen, Hoffman in the 5th starters role. Here is why.

    I'm big on context. Hoffman has only been around Reds coaches since mid February. Now he's had a few weeks extra, rehabbing and working with Etherton. Hoffman has talent, but had serious BB issues this year. even more than his career norms. Some guys adjust with the right instruction or just a different set of eyes and a different philosophy. Point is, Hoffman did not have a ton of time with the Reds staff. Rehabbing has given him perhaps some extra attention.

    Because of that, IF he has the BB's under control, I'm for him as the 5th SP.
    I hope this is the case and there is more to Hoffman than we have seen, but I’m pretty skeptical. To me the walks were high because he wasn’t fooling anyone and couldn’t afford to throw anything off the edge of the zone or it was getting hit hard, so he was forced to nibble all of the time.

    I suppose I also just described a young Tyler Mahle…
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  18. #44
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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    I hope this is the case and there is more to Hoffman than we have seen, but I’m pretty skeptical. To me the walks were high because he wasn’t fooling anyone and couldn’t afford to throw anything off the edge of the zone or it was getting hit hard, so he was forced to nibble all of the time.

    I suppose I also just described a young Tyler Mahle…
    Might have been his prior environment. People always compare Coors to GABP, but it isn't the same. The mechanics of throwing a pitch in Cincinnati are the same as throwing the same pitch in any NL Central park. Coors is a different animal in regards to pitch movement. And that can get into your head. But once you get someone showing you that you can live in the zone a bit more without disastrous results maybe you can develop a more repeatable delivery.

    Might be a confidence thing. Might be a mechanical thing.

    Or both. Either way, Hoffman was always a good K guy. his HR rate in COL was awful, but almost everyone's is. If he can get his BB/9 around 3 after he returns with a 9ish K/9? That's hella dangerous from a 5th SP.
    Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.

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    Re: Jeff Hoffman

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Might have been his prior environment. People always compare Coors to GABP, but it isn't the same. The mechanics of throwing a pitch in Cincinnati are the same as throwing the same pitch in any NL Central park. Coors is a different animal in regards to pitch movement. And that can get into your head. But once you get someone showing you that you can live in the zone a bit more without disastrous results maybe you can develop a more repeatable delivery.

    Might be a confidence thing. Might be a mechanical thing.

    Or both. Either way, Hoffman was always a good K guy. his HR rate in COL was awful, but almost everyone's is. If he can get his BB/9 around 3 after he returns with a 9ish K/9? That's hella dangerous from a 5th SP.
    His career road HR rate is slightly higher than his home HR rate in his career. So while COL is awful for pitchers, I don't buy the fact it played this huge role with Hoffman, we've seen some guys have major splits in COL and on the road. Maybe the Reds coaches can pull a miracle in a just a few extra weeks of rehabbing, it just seems unlikely. I'd be content with some creativity on filling their 5th starter spot since they don't really have an option to be counted on the rest of the season.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.


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