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Thread: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

  1. #31
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Reds have 7 games with the Brewers coming up in the next two weeks. They can only afford to lose 1 of them, imo. If they go 5-2, they only pick up 3 games. And honestly, I am not sure they can go 5-2 against this Brewer club.
    I'll take 5-2 in a heartbeat. Ain't gonna happen though....

    BTW we are 6.5 back in the WC race. I think the Giants will come crashing back down to earth and the Dodgers will likely be without Bauer for quite some time. That's the more interesting race to me.

    Also while Adames has been really good 1.6bWAR since the trade TB actually has done slightly better with a combined 1.8bWAR. Just shows how smart the front office of TB is unlike ours...
    Last edited by DocRed; 07-03-2021 at 12:17 PM.

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  4. #32
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Standing by that trade while India carries a .386 OBP into July is really something.

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  6. #33
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Incorrect. Most bWAR heís had is 4.0 in 2019 as a 23 year old.

    Just severely undervaluing Adames. Dude is currently leading the charge to a division title for the Brewers. Yeah, heís mediocre. Right.

    Check his home and away splits in Tampa. They paint the picture.
    You know the Brewers also have 3 really good starting pitchers and a lockdown end of the bullpen right? Adames has been great for them but you are acting like he is the sole reason they are winning and like we missed out on the chance to acquire Tatis Jr. Letís check back in a month when he stops playing Pitt, Col, and AZ every game.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  8. #34
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Moving on from that one trade proposal, to another one that might be just as controversial.

    If the Reds don’t gain much ground on the Brewers by the end of this month, and Antone is healthy and pitching, I think the Reds should see what he could bring in a trade.

    He’s already had one TJ surgery, had similar injuries this season, and is a pitcher, so I am not putting much faith in him being productive long term. Some team might overpay for a top reliever, with 4 more years of control this deadline. I think the Reds could either get a top prospect or someone to fill one of the few big holes on the big league roster for him.
    Thatís why weíre playing, bro

  9. #35
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Look, I hope India continues to put up this kind of production. Small sample size, though.

    I pretty much don’t consider Antone a factor moving forward at this point until he proves he’s healthy. I will be shocked if he doesn’t require TJ again.

    I know I’m getting killed for this. Don’t really care. Sick of watching teams like the Brewers and Cardinals make moves while we sit here and talk about how great our reliever is and we absolutely couldn’t trade him for a proven leaders and player that is leading our division rival to the postseason and has turned them into the hottest team in baseball. The reds suck, let’s keep doing the same stuff. Works awesomely.
    The Brewers traded relievers for him and still have the best bullpen in the history of the universe. The Reds simply didn’t boast the organizational depth to make this deal. Antone is hurt now, but that isn’t part of the calculus in April. He’s been one of the best relievers in baseball and rescued an abomination of a bullpen many times. He has five additional years of team control, so even if he does have TJ, there’s potential future value. India has been more or less the player the Reds envisioned when they drafted him - and while we have Senzel and Lopez - has clearly emerged at the top of the 2B depth chart. Five more years of team control and first-round pedigree. Lodolo will show up on top-50 mid-season prospect lists. His recent injury is blister related. First round pick with 6 years of team control.

    1st round infielder with 6 years of control
    1st round LHSP with 6 years of control
    Breakout reliever with SP potential

    This is a package you give up for a top-25 player in all of baseball. Adames is a nice player and has worked out well for the Brewers, but I’d need two of him to deal that package.

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    Wonderful Monds (07-03-2021)

  11. #36
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Moving on from that one trade proposal, to another one that might be just as controversial.

    If the Reds don’t gain much ground on the Brewers by the end of this month, and Antone is healthy and pitching, I think the Reds should see what he could bring in a trade.

    He’s already had one TJ surgery, had similar injuries this season, and is a pitcher, so I am not putting much faith in him being productive long term. Some team might overpay for a top reliever, with 4 more years of control this deadline. I think the Reds could either get a top prospect or someone to fill one of the few big holes on the big league roster for him.
    I’m not super into it, but if you’re gonna trade him I think you need to let him have a couple months to prove he’s healthy and won’t hit the DL again, because otherwise I think you’re gonna get lowballed and not get what it’d take to be worth trading him.

  12. #37
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Adams is good, but he's fattening up against down teams too. He has a .783 OPS as a Brewer through the last time the Reds played them. Since then they are 12-3 vs the Rockies, AZ, Cubs and Pirates and he's hitting with a 1.100 OPS. His 150 odd PAs as a Brewer are seeing a career low K rate, career high BB rate and a .348 BABIP as well as hitting the ball harder than usual.

    Small sample so far but it's paying off for them, they had the arms to trade for him the Reds did not, the Fish wanted arms, the Reds need them too

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  14. #38
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    So whatís the alternative, we shouldíve given up three times the value he was actually traded for? We should trade a guy that has as much value alone as Adames has for him alone? Even though Antone is coming back in a couple weeks and says itís a non UCL injury, despite the pessimism? This is also predicated on Adames being a 950ish OPS bat, which I donít believe he is just based on a month or so of games sample size.


    Sorry man but itís a really goofy assertion to act like this is a no brainer move the Reds were idiots to not make and that everyone else just doesnít get it for being on board with.
    I didnít say it was a no brainer. Someone pulled the receipt and Iím defending myself. I also stated in my response it wouldnít have taken that much.

    I would also like to point out you are on record in that thread saying you wouldnít trade Senzel straight up for Adames. Which is just as crazy as my original trade offer but in the opposite direction.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  15. #39
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    I'm as optimistic as I've been in years. Reds have the best roster in the Central, even with the chaff still in the pen. NL West has to start playing each other, Wild Card will be within reach as well.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  16. #40
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I couldnít care less about prospect rankings anymore. Until Lodolo does it at the major league level heís just another guy in my eyes.

    Senzel was a top 5 prospect in baseball. He sucks.

    Adames has single handedly turned the Brewers into a WS contender.
    No one does anything single-handledly in baseball. Adames has been a 1.7 bWAR player in half a year. He's going to end up winning Milwaukee 3-4 games above what a replacement level guy would.

    Jonathan India has been a 1.3 bWAR player this year. He's going to end up winning Cincy 2-3 games above what a replacement level guy would.

    Lodolo is worth more than winning a single game this year, imo.

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  18. #41
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Lodolo only has blister issues and was producing as good as Greene was. He would be in AAA right now. It’s only blisters.

    I would have done India and Senzel easily if TB would have. Would they have taken Garrett or Sims with those 2. Based on what they took seems they would have taken Garrett. Sims and Senzel.

    Bob would have probably never budged anyways. He would have talked about Senzel bobble head or some BS about India bringing in the Hindu fans.

    So it’s assumed that Antone is going to have TJ surgery again. I remember FCB was doing a lot of pre med work in game threads about this pitcher being hurt a lot.

  19. #42
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Incorrect. Most bWAR heís had is 4.0 in 2019 as a 23 year old.

    Just severely undervaluing Adames. Dude is currently leading the charge to a division title for the Brewers. Yeah, heís mediocre. Right.

    Check his home and away splits in Tampa. They paint the picture.
    I mean, sure, if you give one single guy credit for the results of an entire team then yeah, everyone is going to undervalue any player compared to that.

    Adames is a 3-4 win guy who is young enough to get better and has 3 years of cheap team control. He's exactly that, nothing more and nothing less.

  20. #43
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Keep in mind 19 of our final 40 games are against Pitt, Miami and Detroit. Just Gotta stay within striking distance.

    Also playoff odds as of today

    13% 538, 13.8% BR, 11.5% FG, 17% POS, 11.4% PECOTA
    Last edited by DocRed; 07-03-2021 at 02:06 PM.

  21. #44
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Comparatively...

    Cards finish with 32 games against teams that all have winning records currently.

    Remaining SOS... Cards 9th toughest in MLB, Milw 17th, Reds 26th, Cubs 29th

    http://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaini...edule_strength

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  23. #45
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    Re: With Milwaukee starting to run away with the division....

    Reds are playing well given their weak off-season. Can’t expect dramatic improvement “as is.” So - much will turn on the play of the opposition (Brewers, Cubs, NL West potential wild cards) and any moves Reds’ FO might make.

    If fans keep showing up it’s possible Reds might add, unlikely they’ll sell, so it’ll be awhile before they are focused on 2022. Yesterday’s full house suggests Reds will try to be as competitive as possible for awhile.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-03-2021 at 02:13 PM.

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    DocRed (07-03-2021)


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