Who Should Play?

[redsfan9988]

Okay, so we all know where we stand. It's been a disappointing couple of days, and the Wild Card is looking like it's going to be a free-for-all, with Atlanta, Philadelphia, and St. Louis all establishing themselves as contenders. That said, the Reds lead all of those teams, have a weak remaining schedule, and trail only the floundering Padres, who are four games below .500 since June. Jesse Winker is out, and the Reds offense has looked sketchy - apart from crushing the hapless Cubs on Monday night. The absence of Nick Castellanos was largely weathered due to stellar play by Joey Votto, Jonathan India, Kyle Farmer, and Winker, but this time, the lineup seems to be a bit behind the happy days of July and early August. It's said the Reds are "hopeful" that Winker will miss the minimum 10 days on his IL stint, but there's reason to be skeptical of that. His quick return, and immediate removal from the game on Sunday - along with his subsequent IL placement, suggest a pretty legitimate injury. A quick glance at the interwebs tells me that a moderate intercostal strain can require over 3 weeks to heal. His replacement on the roster is the #15 prospect in MLB according to Baseball America's midseason list: Jose Barerro. After a rough go in the bigs in 2020, Barerro has returned to crush two advanced minor league levels and secure his elite prospect status in 2021. Hopefully, Winker is back in a week, but in the interim, what should the lineup look like? Here are some options

Kyle Farmer SS/3B/OF?/2B?/C????? - Farmer has emerged as the Reds best option at SS so far in 2021. He'll be pushed for playing time by Barerro, but his multi-position flexibility should help him to stay in the lineup. He's been an elite hitter since the ASB, but has slowed a bit in the last couple of weeks. He mashes lefties and holds his own against righties

Key Stats (2021)
vRHP - .317 OBP .697 OPS
vLHP - .333 OBP .846 OPS
2nd half - .345 AVG 940 OPS
fWAR - 1.5 bWAR - 0.9


Tyler Naquin OF - Naquin got off to a hot start, and has been a productive member of the lineup for most of the year, putting up a 90 OPS+ with regular at bats. He's a poor defender in CF, but plays both corners acceptably. BR hates his glove in CF with the force of a million elephants. Naquin is solidly above-average against righties. Not so much against lefties, but his OBP is similar against them.

Key Stats (2021)

vRHP - .324 OBP .782 OPS
vLHP - .309 OBP .564 OPS
2nd Half - .287 AVG .760 OPS
fWAR - 0.5 bWAR - (-0.2)


Aristides Aquino OF - Aquino hit a lot of homers in games no one cared that much about in 2019. Since then, he's established himself as a respectable 4th outfielder, providing adequate defense, plus power, and an occasional walk or single. His K-rate is utterly alarming, but his stats show that power is everything. He's a wash with Naquin against righties, and destroys lefties. He's also a better defender in CF. He's struggled a bit in the 2nd half.

Key stats (2021)

vRHP - .306 OBP .782 OPS
vLHP - .350 OBP .871 OPS
2nd half - .209 AVG .745 OPS
fWAR - 0.5 bWAR - 0.3


Shogo Akiyama CF, LF - Shogo sparked the offense with an adequate OBP in September last year, showing the Reds what was possible if you don't fly out on the first pitch every time. He's a #8-type hitter: pesky and patient - willing to draw a walk and turn the lineup over - and also, probably the best defensive outfielder on the roster. BUT... His numbers are bad. Real bad. Have a look - and please don't suggest that David Bell should start him against lefties. He will forfeit a game before that happens:

Key Stats (2021)

vRHP - .267 OBP .519 OPS
vLHP (very small sample) - .444 OBP .778
2nd Half - .207 AVG .567 OPS
fWAR - (-0.4) bWAR - (-0.7)


Mike Moustakas 3B/2B(lol) - Remember when Moose hit three doubles? Me neither. For what it's worth, FanGraphs likes his offense. He's been putrid against lefties - in a small sample. As far as his defense... Let's hope the NL has a DH next year.

Key Stats (2021)

vRHP - .348 OBP .816 OPS
vLHP - .250 OBP .386 OPS (!!)
fWAR - 0.5 bWAR - 0.0


Eugenio Suarez 3B/SS(lol) - I'm not going to talk about Suarez. I'll use this space to stump for Barerro, who has no meaningful stats to display. At least he fields the position - and his offensive upside leads this list. Geno should basically be shut down for 2021 - unless you think him riding the pine for 2 months will be good for his confidence heading in to 2022. The only thing he offers is power against RHP, and our manager isn't going to deploy him in that way. At all. Soooo...

Key Stats (2021)

vRHP - .266 OBP .664 OPS
vLHP - .234 OBP .521 OPS
2nd Half - .168 AVG .646 OPS
fWAR (-0.7) bWAR (-2.5)(!!!!!!!)

Conclusions

Playing-time priority is:

1. Farmer
2. Barerro
3. Aquino
4. Naquin
5. Moustakas
6. Shogo
7. Suarez

- Barerro should start every day at SS, with Farmer moving to 3B. Moustakas should start at 3B against some righties. In games in which Moustakas plays, Farmer should be prioritized as SS over Barerro.

-Aquino should play every day in the absence of Winker. He should start in CF, with Naquin moving to LF. Statistically speaking, Shogo is a defensive replacement. Farmer can see some time in the OF as well, if you think it's necessary, but I doubt that situation presents itself much.

-A lot of these stats are very small samples. I understand the desire to give experienced players more at-bats in important games. I might accept that argument for Moustakas. But if Suarez is stealing at-bats from Barerro, I'm going on strike.

Thoughts? Who disagrees?

[KeefeCato]

Barrero will be in the minors as soon as Winker returns Unless they IL or DFA Doolittle, Garrett or Hoffman.
Santillan will be sent down as soon as Antone returns.
Barrero I imagine will return Sept 1. Only way he stays is if it takes till Sept. 1 for Winker to make it back.

[JCM11]

It's pretty obvious that Barrero is the most talented IF the Reds have on the left side of the IF. Farmer's lucky streak is over(.443 BAbip in July) and he's back to being who he's always been in August(.650 OPS). Moose has been awful since coming back(.506 OPS), and Geno still stinks. If the Reds are serious about winning they need to let Barrero play if that means Farmer plays third or some OF then so be it. Both Moose and Geno look like bench players right now.

Also I'll just leave this little tidbit here about the catcher position. Stephenson catcher ERA 4.16 Mr. Gold Glove 4.70, and we know who the better offense player is. There's no reason Stephenson shouldn't be getting a majority of the PT right now.

[Ky Fried Redleg]

It's pretty obvious that Barrero is the most talented IF the Reds have on the left side of the IF. Farmer's lucky streak is over(.443 BAbip in July) and he's back to being who he's always been in August(.650 OPS). Moose has been awful since coming back(.506 OPS), and Geno still stinks. If the Reds are serious about winning they need to let Barrero play if that means Farmer plays third or some OF then so be it. Both Moose and Geno look like bench players right now.

Also I'll just leave this little tidbit here about the catcher position. Stephenson catcher ERA 4.16 Mr. Gold Glove 4.70, and we know who the better offense player is. There's no reason Stephenson shouldn't be getting a majority of the PT right now.

Good post. Excellent analysis. I agree with most of all of this. Stephenson is too good of a hitter to be spending much time on the bench. Moose and Geno have been God awful.They are too bad to be spending much time anywhere other than the bench. I want to see more of Barrero. Farmer is a good athlete and offers some flexibility as far as positioning. Because he's been so good in the second half(even though he has come back to earth some), I still play him.

[Kc61]

I expect the Reds to keep using Farmer and Moose as their main guys on the left side of the infield. Farmer has had a big role in the team's ascent over the last few months. Moose is a solid proven veteran who's needed some time after injury.

Would guess that Barrero will get as much or more playing time than Suarez going forward. Hopefully Reds see that 2021 just isn't Suarez' season. If Barrero does well his playing time will increase.

Reds will continue to split time at catcher. Barnhart has had a good all around season, offense and defense, I don't think they will turn him into a backup at this point.

[Ky Fried Redleg]

I expect the Reds to keep using Farmer and Moose as their main guys on the left side of the infield. Farmer has had a big role in the team's ascent over the last few months. Moose is a solid proven veteran who's needed some time after injury.

Would guess that Barrero will get as much or more playing time than Suarez going forward. Hopefully Reds see that 2021 just isn't Suarez' season. If Barrero does well his playing time will increase.

Reds will continue to split time at catcher.

Running out of time. Sit his portly butt on the pine. Lorenzen or Miley would do more at the plate than hit pop up after pop up.

[Kc61]

Running out of time. Sit his portly butt on the pine. Lorenzen or Miley would do more at the plate than hit pop up after pop up.

I think Reds will consider track record and experience and take a different approach than some fans. Down the stretch is not the time for on-the -job training. Like I said, if Barrero continues to do well his playing time will increase.

[JCM11]

There's more to the catching position than blocking balls in the dirt. Tucker had a higher catcher ERA than Casali all 3 years Casali played for the Reds and here he is this year with over a half a run higher ERA than a rookie. He's just not that good at handling the pitching staff and it's not a small sample size.

[Kc61]

There's more to the catching position than blocking balls in the dirt. Tucker had a higher catcher ERA than Casali all 3 years Casali played for the Reds and here he is this year with over a half a run higher ERA than a rookie. He's just not that good at handling the pitching staff and it's not a small sample size.

Catcher's ERA is a debatable stat. It does depend, in part, on the pitchers. They are the ones pitching.

The Fangraphs defensive stat shows Farmer and Barnhart as the best defenders on the Reds this year.

But overall, the Reds have risen from a bad start. The guys who helped drive that train will play down the stretch. Not every day, others will get chances, but Reds are unlikely to switch horses that easily at this late stage.

[Ky Fried Redleg]

I think Reds will consider track record and experience and take a different approach than some fans. Down the stretch is not the time for on-the -job training. Like I said, if Barrero continues to do well his playing time will increase.

Oh, I totally agree with you as far as what Bell and the Reds WILL do. Moose is a 16 million dollar man. Just saying that Moose on pine is what they SHOULD do. I hope I'm dead wrong but I don't see Moose helping this team going forward. Hope he proves me wrong.

[JCM11]

Catcher's ERA is a debatable stat. It does depend, in part, on the pitchers. They are the ones pitching.

The Fangraphs defensive stat shows Farmer and Barnhart as the best defenders on the Reds this year.

But overall, the Reds have risen from a bad start. The guys who helped drive that train will play down the stretch. Not every day, others will get chances, but Reds are unlikely to switch horses that easily at this late stage.

2018 Casali 3.52, Tucker 4.93
2019 Casali 3.73, Tucker 4.16
2020 Casali 3.68, Tucker 3.87
2021 Stephenson 4.16 Tucker 4.70

That's a pattern right there, and like I said earlier blocking balls and throwing out runners is great but the #1 job of a catcher defensively is run prevention and Tucker isn't very good at it.

[mgbrown66]

Moose should be hitting 8th until he gets it fixed.

[Fil3232]

Please play Barrero everyday at SS. Go with the hot hand everywhere else.

[klw]

2b India
3b Farmer
RF Castellanos
1b Votto
C Ty/ Barnhart
CF Naquin/ Senzel
SS Barrero
LF Shogo/ Aquino

[VR]

Moose should be hitting 8th until he gets it fixed.

He's a .751 career OPS guy that has cement shoes on defense. Getting it fixed isn't that promising.