Reds Draft Critique

[Bourgeois Zee]

Typical draft class has about 240 eventual major leaguers in it, so about 8 draftees per team. Only half of them will achieve 2 years of service in the majors. About 60 will ever reach the 6 years of service needed to reach free agency.

That's really interesting. I wonder if those percentages will increase as baseball becomes more analytically minded and need/ plan for more fungible arms as relief (and often starter) depth.

Randomly choosing three drafts shows how important (and interesting) the draft can be. The 2013 Reds' draft had 12 guys make the majors-- that would seem like a lot. But a couple of them did it with other teams. Of the 10 left, only three have bWAR over 1.0. The 2005 draft had eight earn at least a cup of coffee at the MLB level, five of which earning over 1.0 bWAR. The 1999 draft had six players make it overall. (Did anyone know the Reds actually drafted Rich Hill? I did not.) Only two of them earned a career bWAR over 1.0.

[Kinsm]

That's really interesting. I wonder if those percentages will increase as baseball becomes more analytically minded and need/ plan for more fungible arms as relief (and often starter) depth.

Randomly choosing three drafts shows how important (and interesting) the draft can be. The 2013 Reds' draft had 12 guys make the majors-- that would seem like a lot. But a couple of them did it with other teams. Of the 10 left, only three have bWAR over 1.0. The 2005 draft had eight earn at least a cup of coffee at the MLB level, five of which earning over 1.0 bWAR. The 1999 draft had six players make it overall. (Did anyone know the Reds actually drafted Rich Hill? I did not.) Only two of them earned a career bWAR over 1.0.

They’ve increased pretty much every year, but the main driver is teams are churning through pitchers at an increasing rate.

What is an indicator of better evaluation is the increase debut rate at the top of the draft which in turn has been offset by a decrease in debut rate in the later rounds. Non premium high schoolers are going to college and getting drafted in higher rounds three years later or aren’t getting drafted at all three years later.

[UKFlounder]

If the draft remains at 20 rounds, how those numbers change much? Assuming most major leaguers come from those first 20 rounds, it will probably be just a small effect?

Typical draft class has about 240 eventual major leaguers in it, so about 8 draftees per team. Only half of them will achieve 2 years of service in the majors. About 60 will ever reach the 6 years of service needed to reach free agency.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If the draft remains at 20 rounds, how those numbers change much? Assuming most major leaguers come from those first 20 rounds, it will probably be just a small effect?

Might move in the other direction, as undrafted players reveal themselves (positively or negatively) after going to JC or returning to a four-year school. Best of all (for MLB clubs at least), it'll be on someone else's dime.

(I'm fairly sure that's the thinking amongst those clubs that pushed for this new draft-- and the new minor league system.)

[M2]

Might move in the other direction, as undrafted players reveal themselves (positively or negatively) after going to JC or returning to a four-year school. Best of all (for MLB clubs at least), it'll be on someone else's dime.

(I'm fairly sure that's the thinking amongst those clubs that pushed for this new draft-- and the new minor league system.)

I think there's going to be prospects coming out of indy leagues. Not a ton, but there's cracks big enough in the minors for some real talent to fall between them.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think there's going to be prospects coming out of indy leagues. Not a ton, but there's cracks big enough in the minors for some real talent to fall between them.

Sure. NDFAs too.

[OGB]

They’ve increased pretty much every year, but the main driver is teams are churning through pitchers at an increasing rate.

What is an indicator of better evaluation is the increase debut rate at the top of the draft which in turn has been offset by a decrease in debut rate in the later rounds. Non premium high schoolers are going to college and getting drafted in higher rounds three years later or aren’t getting drafted at all three years later.

This is a massive win for player development and the league imho.
It allows teams to take 3-6 years to develop a player as opposed to 5-8. The lifestyle and comfort level of playing in college is likely best for a lot of 18 year olds, too. I'm sure there's far less stress and pressure.

[RED VAN HOT]

Even those HS players with loud tools have a lot of work to do. It's hard to judge how even the most enthusiastic young player is motivated to put in the work. Further, there is injury risk along the way, especially for pitchers. It stands to reason that the outcome variance is smaller if the player has already competed successfully in college. I think MLB figured this out before they reorganized the minor leagues.

[redsman2007]

Another consideration now is that college athletes can be paid going forward (legally may be the only change). That's probably not going to be a huge impact for a lot of these guys. But, the top talents can still make some money while also going to school.