Payback for Castellanos HBP

[RedsManRick]

I think the main reason that HBP is so high now is due to the emphasis of OBP.
When I was a kid, you didn't see players with body armor leaning in to try to get hit by the pitch. Maybe a few, like Biggio, but now, a lot of guys do it. I don't blame them, the umps don't enforce the rule where the batter has to try to avoid getting hit, so why not get the free pass to 1b.

I suspect it's due a number of factors. Yes, body armor mitigates the fear/cost of being hit to some degree. On the other hand, I'd rather be hit by an 88 mph fastball than a 98 mph one. In that vein, some of it could be more velocity meaning less reaction time.

I wondered how the increase looks if you measure the HBP rate by pitch instead of by PA. B-R only has pitch totals going back to 1999, but just over that time, you can see that about 25% of the increase can be explained by increases in pitches seen per PA.

From a correlation standpoint, of the various PA outcomes, HBP/PA correlates most strongly, BY FAR, with the strikeout rate. More strikeouts = more HBP. It actually has a negative correlation with OBP, though small positive correlation with walks. The correlation with SLG or ISO is also moderately small -- about half of SO. This suggests to me that the biggest single factor is how nasty pitchers' stuff is. The faster the velo and the less predictable the movement, the harder it is for the batter to get out of the way. I'm sure batter willingness to take a pitch (due to body armor and valuing OBP) has also played into it, but I'd guess those are lesser factors.

In any event, while it has certainly increased over time, there have been noted periods of big change. The increase in recent years is part of a much longer trend.

[kaldaniels]

I wonder if not only there is an increase in overall HBP but there seems to be a lot more HBP “on the hands” vs “on the butts” lately.

That may just be recency/confirmation bias.

No HBP is good but those on the hands and wrists are the ones that seem to injure guys. And it doesn’t have to be intentional, just a result of the intentional strategy to fire heaters in on the hands.

[RedsManRick]

I wonder if not only there is an increase in overall HBP but there seems to be a lot more HBP “on the hands” vs “on the butts” lately.

That may just be recency/confirmation bias.

No HBP is good but those on the hands and wrists are the ones that seem to injure guys. And it doesn’t have to be intentional, just a result of the intentional strategy to fire heaters in on the hands.

I suspect that has more to do with where fastballs are being thrown in general. For most of the 2000s, it was all about sinkers and splitters generating groundballs. Now, with the popularization of pitch tracking tech and analysis, teams have learned to use the high fastball to generate swings and misses.

[Wonderful Monds]

I think the increase in HBPs has a pretty simple explanation, seems to correlate pretty strongly with every guy suddenly throwing harder up in the high 90s now. That’s why hitters were okay with pitchers using sticky stuff, so they could actually have a shred of control and be able to harness the velocity.

[kaldaniels]

Big divisional game out west tonight…Justin Turner and Max Muncy have to leave the game due to HBP. Alrighty then.

[westofyou]

Big divisional game out west tonight…Justin Turner and Max Muncy have to leave the game due to HBP. Alrighty then.

And a PH HR wins it

[kaldaniels]

And a PH HR wins it

File that one under “in spite of.”

Just curious WOY as you are both a thoughtful guy and a baseball realist…do you have any issue with a ball to the rear end to retaliate when stuff like this happens? (I’d say we all know this stuff usually takes care of itself between the lines but there is increasing outrage when retaliation is suspected)

It’s hard for me to be opposed to it when you see guy after guy hit and/or hurt due to pitchers pitching inside.

[Falls City Beer]

So what is Castellanos’ status? Any word?

[westofyou]

File that one under “in spite of.”

Just curious WOY as you are both a thoughtful guy and a baseball realist…do you have any issue with a ball to the rear end to retaliate when stuff like this happens? (I’d say we all know this stuff usually takes care of itself between the lines but there is increasing outrage when retaliation is suspected)

It’s hard for me to be opposed to it when you see guy after guy hit and/or hurt due to pitchers pitching inside.

I think a ball on the thigh speaks volumes myself, the zone will be fought over and as long as guys pad up and lean over the dish then I expect the HBP numbers will stay steady. I know a lot of baseball writers trumpet the end of players policing this stuff but I think that's a dream, the game is super competitive and a lot is at stake in each matchup, add in that the participates are testosterone fueled young men and it seems even more unlikely to go away. The same could be said for fighting in hockey.

I propose that if a guy wears armor to the plate he needs to wear it on the basepaths too, that should help weed out some of this. Might be a good first step

[NebraskaRed]

https://twitter.com/CaraKorte/status...914631685?s=20

NOT GOOD

[Falls City Beer]

https://twitter.com/CaraKorte/status...914631685?s=20

NOT GOOD

Now sell. And buy.

OAN: He’ll be a Red in 2022. For what it’s worth.

[klw]

Dear Reds
There is a thing called an injured list. If a player is injured you put them on it and you get to add a player to your active roster so you don't play shorthanded. Hope that helps
Me

[757690]

To clarify, it’s a micro fracture that was discovered today by a catscan. He says he’s at 50% and will take a few days and then see where he is.

I would have no problem with how the Reds dealt with this, except with Bell using him in the game the other day. If he hadn’t, the Reds could have backdated any IL trip to day he got hit. It cost them 3 days.

https://twitter.com/nightengalejr/st...450267650?s=21

[Coopdaddy67]

To clarify, it’s a micro fracture that was discovered today by a catscan. He says he’s at 50% and will take a few days and then see where he is.

I would have no problem with how the Reds dealt with this, except with Bell using him in the game the other day. If he hadn’t, the Reds could have backdated any IL trip to day he got hit. It cost them 3 days.

https://twitter.com/nightengalejr/st...450267650?s=21

That tweet no longer exists.

If it was just found today, I have no reason to blame Bell. He was under the impression that Castellanos was available in an emergency role and that's how he was used.

This along with some other injury situations do have me wondering what the medical staff is drinking though.

[gagliano]

Ok ok, I get it. The correct internet answer as to how should the Reds have handled things with the Castellanos HBP is that they should not retaliate at all. That’s assault as our ex, Dougdirt, used to say.

But what should be done?

Shouldn’t there be some punishment for a HBP that injures a player?

Shouldn’t there be a punishment for a team that hits more batters than other teams?

Other sports have penalties such as “blow to the head,” how is this much different?

I really do get it. You shouldn’t throw at guys.

But here we have a huge series (which shouldn’t be relevant), and the Brewers fire one inside that takes out our top guy. Maybe that’s the new moneyball, I don’t know.

Perhaps it’s opening a can of worms to punish teams for hitting players, but unless that happens I can rationalize turning the other way if payback comes in the form of a HBP.

Reds too
Cheap to pay the "insurance" money: "got a nice right fielder there. Be a shame if sumpin happens to him"