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Thread: The Reds distaste for home cooking

  1. #1
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    The Reds distaste for home cooking

    With today's loss the Reds fell back to 25-25 in 50 games this year at the Great American Ball Park, in contrast to a 25-22 record on the road. Even more interesting to me than the overall win % is the runs scored and runs against categories. While the Reds offense is much better at scoring runs at home (248 home vs 197 away), the same is true for opposing offenses when facing Reds pitching (249 runs at GABP vs 204 away).

    It's really been an issue of this staff not being able to pitch well enough in their own park. Reds pitching has allowed 70 HRs at home in 416.1 innings compared to just 44 on the road in 410.1 innings.

    They've gotta ID some guys who can keep the ball in the yard and, very importantly, rack up some strikeouts at GABP. Otherwise your big hope is continuing to play at a really, really strong clip on the road which is one of the harder thing to do in baseball.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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    REDREAD (07-19-2021),RollyInRaleigh (07-18-2021)


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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    With today's loss the Reds fell back to 25-25 in 50 games this year at the Great American Ball Park, in contrast to a 25-22 record on the road. Even more interesting to me than the overall win % is the runs scored and runs against categories. While the Reds offense is much better at scoring runs at home (248 home vs 197 away), the same is true for opposing offenses when facing Reds pitching (249 runs at GABP vs 204 away).

    It's really been an issue of this staff not being able to pitch well enough in their own park. Reds pitching has allowed 70 HRs at home in 416.1 innings compared to just 44 on the road in 410.1 innings.

    They've gotta ID some guys who can keep the ball in the yard and, very importantly, rack up some strikeouts at GABP. Otherwise your big hope is continuing to play at a really, really strong clip on the road which is one of the harder thing to do in baseball.
    Reds have too many pitchers with fly ball tendencies and too few with GB tendencies.

    Ks and GBs are a combo that works at GABP.

    Doolittle, Hembree, Hoffman, Vlad, Warren, Sims, Hendrix low GB rates. Reds are 16th in MLB in GB rate, yet play in one of the most HR-friendly stadiums.

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    Hamilton95 (07-23-2021),REDREAD (07-19-2021)

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    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    I dont know my fly ball/ground ball pitching stats

    Where does Miley rank on ground ball pitching? Hes 7th on the Reds in HR allowed with only 6 in 96 innings

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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    I don’t know my fly ball/ground ball pitching stats

    Where does Miley rank on ground ball pitching? He’s 7th on the Reds in HR allowed with only 6 in 96 innings
    Miley and Castillo are the two with strongest GB tendencies among Reds starters. They throw about 53% ground balls. Both have low homer rates this year.

    Osich has the highest GB rate on the team, but his K rate is low, just 5.25 per nine innings, so he allows much contact. With relievers sometimes GB rates and HR rates don’t correlate as well, small sample sizes.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-19-2021 at 12:26 AM.

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    Home ERA going into tonight's tilt now sits at 5.11
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Reds have too many pitchers with fly ball tendencies and too few with GB tendencies.

    Ks and GBs are a combo that works at GABP.

    Doolittle, Hembree, Hoffman, Vlad, Warren, Sims, Hendrix low GB rates. Reds are 16th in MLB in GB rate, yet play in one of the most HR-friendly stadiums.
    The idea that the Reds have too many FB pitchers and enough GB pitchers in GABP is ludicris.
    What a pitcher's GB/FB rates has no bearing on how well they pitch in GABP. You can look at the pitchers that have had success in GABP and their GB/FB rates mean nothing.
    What matters if you pitch good or pitch bad (locate your pitches). If you watch baseball you see that a vast majority of HRs come from bad pitches. FB/GB rate has nothing to do with HR rate.

    A pitcher's GB/FB tendacies are generated by the majority of their pitching which for a major league pitcher is hitting their spots.

    The Reds pitching staff illustrates this this year. If you look the Reds staff's numbers at home they are a high GB and K pitching staff. 1.3 GB/FB which is a high GB rate. They are 21 st highest FB rate in MLB for home team. In contrast the have the 11th highest FB rate on the road they GB/FB rate is 1.13. Bottom is the Reds staff is pitching bad at home. All the numbers are aweful except high K rate(10k per 9ip) The walk rate of 4.05 bb/9 is very telling of their aweful pitching (missing locations).They alsohave a 21% LD rate and .308 babip(league ave .289) I believe the high babip is due to bad pitching combined with poor infield D and high GB rate
    1.43 whip at home
    .337 obp at home.

    FYI Trevor Bauer who won the cy young last year pitching GABP also led the Majors in FB rate last year. So please continue telling me how FB pitchers are not a good fit for GABP.

    GABP does not let you get away with bad pitches like other ball barks

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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    High GB rate and high K rate help prevent HRs. Neither a ground ball nor a strikeout will go over the outfield fence. Hence, this combination narrows considerably the chances for HR allowance.

    This year the Reds allow 1.63 HRs per nine at home, the most in the NL. They are ninth in GB rate and in GB/FB rate at home. These GB rates should be higher to help control homers.

    The 2021 Reds main starters show how high GB rates can help reduce HR allowance (not limited to GABP).

    Miley has a 51.8% GB rate and a low 0.61 HR rate.
    Castillo has a 52.9% GB rate and a low 0.83 HR rate.
    Gray has a 47.1% GB rate and solid 1.08 HR rate.
    Mahle has a 43% GB rate and a somewhat higher 1.25 HR rate.

    GB rate alone does not make a good pitcher. And there are always exceptions, such as Bauer with great stuff last season. But overall the Reds should be emphasizing this K/GB combo wherever possible to help prevent homers.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-23-2021 at 12:50 AM.

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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    This is because almost the entire bullpen minus the injured pitchers, as well as Mahle and Hoffman are fly ball pitchers. Wade Miley is a ground ball pitcher.

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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    Marcus Stroman is a ground ball pitcher.

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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    Either build a giant stadium or only sign ground ball pitchers.

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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    Man it feels like we have all said this for years. GABP is a disaster. 3 WS wins and 2 super bowls in Riverfront.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Every year its get the ground ball pitchers. They are rare.

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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    Either tear down GABP or move the walls way back. I don't like PBS either. It feels cheap.

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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking


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    Re: The Reds distaste for home cooking

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    With today's loss the Reds fell back to 25-25 in 50 games this year at the Great American Ball Park, in contrast to a 25-22 record on the road. Even more interesting to me than the overall win % is the runs scored and runs against categories. While the Reds offense is much better at scoring runs at home (248 home vs 197 away), the same is true for opposing offenses when facing Reds pitching (249 runs at GABP vs 204 away).

    It's really been an issue of this staff not being able to pitch well enough in their own park. Reds pitching has allowed 70 HRs at home in 416.1 innings compared to just 44 on the road in 410.1 innings.

    They've gotta ID some guys who can keep the ball in the yard and, very importantly, rack up some strikeouts at GABP. Otherwise your big hope is continuing to play at a really, really strong clip on the road which is one of the harder thing to do in baseball.
    One thing to look at is who have the home opponents and road opponents been. Overall the Reds have had more success against team with losing records this year. Q is then has the home schedule slanted harder than the road to this point. I can't find a quick answer on that .

    Overall vs teams with a winning pct ≥.500 =23-30 but vs <.500 26-17


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